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Laurent Courtois
Columbus Crew
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-3
FC Cincinnati
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
9'
⚽
K. Denkey · assist Evander0–1
41'
⚽
J. Thiaré · assist D. Chambost1–1
Half-time · 2–1
45'+6
⚽
D. Gazdag (pen)2–1
46'
🔁
A. Gomes ◂ S. T. Bangoura
64'
🔁
B. Ramírez ◂ E. Echenique
64'
🔁
T. Barlow ◂ K. M. Dem
66'
M. Miazga · Foul
70'
🔁
A. Jabbari ◂ K. Denkey
70'
🔁
K. Smith ◂ M. Miazga
70'
🔁
T. Karumanchi ◂ D. Chambost
79'
🔁
H. Picard ◂ J. Thiaré
85'
🔁
M. Amundsen ◂ S. Moreira
85'
🔁
C. Adams ◂ D. Gazdag
85'
🔁
T. Anunga ◂ O. Nwobodo
Full-time · 2–1
90'+4
A. Gomes · Argument
90'+4
G. Valenzuela · Violent conduct
Coaches
Pat Noonan 
Recent form
LHNew York City FC1-2
DHBurnley1-1
WHAtlanta United2-0
DAPhiladelphia Union1-1
LANew York Red Bulls2-3
WHVancouver Whitecaps4-3
WHBurnley3-1
WHOrlando City SC6-2
DASan Diego FC3-3
LHInter Miami CF3-5
Where to watch
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Match facts
Stadium
Lower.com Field
City
Columbus
Referee
Allen Chapman
Kickoff
25 Jul, 23:15 UTC
Competition
MLS
Highlights & clips
28
P. Schulte
7.0
18
M. Amundsen
6.8
↑ 85'
4
R. Camacho
6.9
25
S. Zawadzki
7.0
23
M. Farsi
6.9
50
T. Karumanchi
6.7
↑ 70'
20
A. Gomes
7.2
↑ 46'
27
M. Arfsten
7.5
16
T. Habroune
7.5
46
C. Adams
6.6
↑ 85'
30
H. Picard
6.6
↑ 79'
18
R. Celentano
8.6
11
S. Gidi
6.6
24
K. Smith
6.8
↑ 70'
12
M. Robinson
6.8
20
P. Bucha
6.9
22
G. Valenzuela
6.5
27
T. Anunga
6.7
↑ 85'
29
B. Ramírez
7.4
↑ 64'
16
T. Barlow
6.2
↑ 64'
99
A. Jabbari
6.5
↑ 70'
10
Evander
7.2
Substitutes
1GN. Hagen
31DS. Moreira↓ 85'6.5
12DC. Ruvalcaba
45DO. Presthus
7MD. Chambost↓ 70'8.2
17MS. T. Bangoura↓ 46'6.4
14MA. Sejdic
8FD. Gazdag↓ 85'7.5
19FJ. Thiaré↓ 79'7.1
90FN. Akhundzade
Coach: Laurent Courtois
Top stats
53%Possession47%
2.29Expected goals (xG)0.84
13Total shots12
6Shots on target5
3Big chances1
4Corners5
Shots
5Shots off target5
2Blocked shots2
7Shots inside box6
6Shots outside box6
0Hit woodwork0
2Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed0
-0.2Goals prevented1.19
Attack
19Touches in box26
48Final third entries41
2Offsides2
7Free kicks11
4Fouled in final third0
Passing
532Passes462
482Accurate passes408
22/37 (59%)Long balls16/26 (62%)
2/17 (12%)Crosses12/23 (52%)
14Throw-ins17
Duels
45Duels55
30/64 (47%)Ground duels33/61 (54%)
5/14 (36%)Aerial duels9/14 (64%)
2/11 (18%)Dribbles5/15 (33%)
8Dispossessed8
Defending
20Tackles17
85Tackles won65
7Interceptions11
22Clearances18
46Recoveries46
Discipline
11Fouls8
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
0Big saves1
9Goal kicks5
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 44 bookmakers
BTTSBoth teams to score 65% · 1.45 @ Novibet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 63% · 1.50 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 82% · 1.17 @ Unibet
CornersOver 9.5 corners 51% · 1.92 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 62% · 1.52 @ Pinnacle
1X2Cincinnati to win 31% · 4.25 @ 1xBet
1X2Draw 25% · 4.25 @ 1xBet
Who winsColumbus to win (DNB) 58% · 1.67 @ 10bet
1X2Columbus to win 44% · 2.25 @ Betano
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 60% · 1.57 @ Betway
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 57% · 1.73 @ Bet365
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.97
Columbus Crew ▼
3.79
Draw ▲
3.09
FC Cincinnati ▲
Double Chanceconsensus
1.32
Columbus Crew or Draw ▼
1.25
Columbus Crew or FC Cincinnati ▲
1.58
Draw or FC Cincinnati ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.42
Yes ▲
2.72
No ▼
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50 ▲
16.05
Under 0.50 ▼
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.14
Over 1.50 ▼
5.48
Under 1.50 ▲
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.48
Over 2.50 ▼
2.59
Under 2.50 ▲
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.16
Over 3.50 ▼
1.67
Under 3.50 ▲
Total Goals 4.50consensus
3.60
Over 4.50 ▼
1.28
Under 4.50 ▲
Draw No Betconsensus
1.55
Columbus Crew ▼
2.23
FC Cincinnati ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
12.50
Under 4.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.05
Over 5.50
8.30
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.10
Over 6.50 ▲
5.35
Under 6.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.26
Over 7.50 ▼
3.38
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.49
Over 8.50 ▲
2.42
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.83
Over 9.50 ▲
1.87
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.33
Over 10.50 ▲
1.53
Under 10.50 ▼
2.0 – 1.4Expected goals
1-1Most likely score
~9Expected corners
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to scoreBTTS | 65% | 65% | 1.42 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 2.5 goalsGoals | 63% | 63% | 1.47 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 82% | 82% | 1.14 | Overpriced | high |
| Over 9.5 cornersCorners | 51% | 52% | 1.79 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 62% | 63% | 1.47 | Overpriced | medium |
| Cincinnati to win1X2 | 31% | 31% | 3.0 | Overpriced | low |
| Draw1X2 | 25% | 25% | 3.76 | Overpriced | low |
| Columbus to win (DNB)Who wins | 58% | 58% | 1.61 | Overpriced | low |
| Columbus to win1X2 | 44% | 44% | 2.14 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 60% | 59% | 1.56 | Overpriced | medium |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 57% | 57% | 1.65 | Fair | low |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Columbus to win (DNB) — we say 67%, they say 58%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 79% | +3% | Yes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 60% | +3% | Yes |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 37% | +6% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 60% | +5% | Yes |
| Home win | 44% | 46% | -2% | No |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1% | Yes |
| Away win | 31% | 30% | +1% | Yes |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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