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Robin Fraser
Toronto FC
New York City FC
Toronto FC
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3
New York City FC
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
7316 EUR · live
Draw
3.45 · implied 29.0%
45.2%
+16.2 vs price
Away
3.3 · implied 30.3%
28.9%
-1.4 vs price
Home
2.56 · implied 39.1%
25.9%
-13.1 vs price
Half time
52 EUR
Home
3.3 · implied 30.3%
75.2%
+44.9 vs price
Draw
2.56 · implied 39.1%
23.1%
-15.9 vs price
Away
0.0%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
8492 EUR · live
Over
2.34 · implied 42.7%
75.8%
+33.0 vs price
Under
1.73 · implied 57.8%
24.2%
-33.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
428 EUR
Under
1.17 · implied 85.5%
61.7%
-23.8 vs price
Over
6.6 · implied 15.2%
38.3%
+23.1 vs price
14 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 3 clips
Player of the match
Match events
18'
B. Kuscevic · Argument
29'
⚽
N. Fernández · assist A. Ojeda0–1
40'
N. Fernández · Foul
Half-time · 0–1
54'
A. Perea · Foul
55'
🔁
D. Sallói ◂ D. Etienne
55'
🔁
M. Pereira ◂ K. Franklin
59'
Đ. Mihailović · Foul
63'
🔁
Raul Gustavo ◂ B. Traore
63'
🔁
K. O'Toole ◂ N. Cavallo
64'
M. Pereira · Foul
70'
⚽
D. Sallói · assist T. Corbeanu1–1
75'
🔁
M. Jones ◂ T. Martins
77'
🔁
J. Shore ◂ K. Parks
Full-time · 1–1
90'+1
J. Shore · Foul
Coaches
Robin FraserPascal Jansen 
Recent form
Toronto FCWAInter Miami CF2-1
DHCharlotte FC3-3
WHNew England Revolution2-1
DANew York City FC1-1
LADC United1-2
New York City FCDANew England Revolution1-1
LAFC Cincinnati1-2
LHPhiladelphia Union2-3
DHToronto FC1-1
WHChicago Fire3-1
Where to watch
Apple TV
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Apple TV (DE)
Match facts
Stadium
BMO Field
City
Toronto
Kickoff
29 Aug, 23:30 UTC
Competition
MLS
Highlights & clips
Toronto FC
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3
New York City FC
1
L. Gavran
6.6
20
D. Sallói
7.6
↑ 55'
25
W. Zimmerman
7.4
13
B. Kuscevic
6.5
22
R. Laryea
7.0
71
M. Cimermancic
6.7
14
A. Coello
7.0
7
T. Corbeanu
7.3
10
Đ. Mihailović
6.2
3
M. Pereira
6.8
↑ 55'
9
J. Sargent
6.6
49
M. Freese
6.7
35
M. Ilenič
6.8
88
M. Jones
6.2
↑ 75'
6
J. Sands
6.5
34
Raul Gustavo
6.5
↑ 63'
32
J. Shore
6.8
↑ 77'
7
N. Fernández
8.1
8
A. Perea
6.3
26
A. Ojeda
6.7
20
Luighi
6.1
22
K. O'Toole
6.3
↑ 63'
Substitutes
23GW. Yarbrough
19DK. Franklin↓ 55'6.5
38DJ. Gilman
15DN. Gomis
12DZ. Monlouis
44DR. Edwards
11FD. Etienne↓ 55'6.5
17FE. Aristizábal
99FJ. Vilsaint
Coach: Robin Fraser
Substitutes
30GT. Romero
18GG. Ranjitsingh
2DN. Cavallo↓ 63'7.2
13DT. Martins↓ 75'6.8
24DT. Gray
23DM. Murray
9MB. Traore↓ 63'6.8
55MK. Parks↓ 77'6.7
27MC. Flax
Coach: Pascal Jansen
Top stats
41%Possession59%
0.76Expected goals (xG)0.39
14Total shots6
6Shots on target2
1Big chances1
7Corners2
Shots
5Shots off target3
3Blocked shots1
8Shots inside box5
6Shots outside box1
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored0
0Big chances missed1
-0.46Goals prevented-0.2
Attack
22Touches in box13
45Final third entries53
2Offsides3
13Free kicks10
2Fouled in final third1
Passing
370Passes555
317Accurate passes494
35/49 (71%)Long balls21/42 (50%)
6/20 (30%)Crosses1/6 (17%)
17Throw-ins13
Duels
56Duels44
29/59 (49%)Ground duels30/59 (51%)
15/20 (75%)Aerial duels5/20 (25%)
6/15 (40%)Dribbles6/12 (50%)
6Dispossessed4
Defending
10Tackles15
90Tackles won67
10Interceptions6
9Clearances18
39Recoveries44
Discipline
10Fouls13
3Yellow cards3
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
0Big saves1
3Goal kicks8
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
Who winsNY City to win (DNB) 54% · 1.92 @ Novibet
BTTSBoth teams to score 61% · 2.62 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 57% · 3.60 @ Unibet
1X2NY City to win 35% · 2.90 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.82 @ Unibet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 59% · 1.50 @ betfair
1X2Draw 26% · 2.70 @ Unibet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 64% · 1.63 @ Unibet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 52% · 1.98 @ Unibet
1X2Toronto to win 39% · 2.70 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 65% · 1.57 @ Pinnacle
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.45
Toronto FC
3.60
Draw
2.61
New York City FC
Double Chanceconsensus
1.44
Toronto FC or Draw
1.25
Toronto FC or New York City FC
1.51
Draw or New York City FC
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.53
Yes
2.37
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
3.80
YES
1.22
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
4.00
YES
1.20
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.67
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
5.12
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.01
Over 0.50
12.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.19
Over 1.50
5.00
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.60
Over 2.50
2.30
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.55
Over 3.50
1.50
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.50
Over 4.50
1.20
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.83
Toronto FC
1.88
New York City FC
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.25
Over 7.50
3.55
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.48
Over 8.50
2.50
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.80
Over 9.50
1.96
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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