Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**NYCFC's stumbling into New England with a depleted squad — not ideal timing for a team that can't buy a win.** Both sides played to a 1-1 stalemate three weeks ago, so expect another cagey affair. 🎭
NYCFC's drawn three of their last five, but losing A. O'Neill, A. Martínez, and A. Baiera leaves them stretched thin at the back. New England come in sharper — they've won two of their last five and looked dangerous against Columbus. The Revolution also have injury headaches with A. Farrell and L. Campana sidelined, but they're deeper in form.
Key storylines:
- **NYCFC's injury crisis** is real: four muscle/leg issues means fresh faces and less shape across the defense
- **New England's attacking edge** showed up big against Columbus; B. Raines and J. Harrison thrive on the counter
- **Set-piece vulnerability** — both sides lean on dead-ball opportunities when open play stalls
Expected lineups:
- **New York City FC**: M. Freese, N. Cavallo, T. Martins, Raul Gustavo, T. Gray, A. Perea, J. Sands, B. Traore, J. Shore, A. Ojeda, N. Fernández
- **New England Revolution**: M. Turner, M. Fofana, E. Kohler, W. Sands, P. Miller, C. Gil, A. Yusuf, D. Turgeman, M. Polster, J. Harrison, B. Raines
Prediction:
**1-1 draw.** New England has the form edge, but NYCFC's defensive rust and tactical adjustments keep this tight. Another stalemate feels right.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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