Chicago Fire 2-1 New York City FC: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Chicago Fire 2-1 New York City FC.

90+7'

J. Shore

Attempt blocked. J. Shore (New York City FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

90+5'

N. Fernández

Attempt saved. N. Fernández (New York City FC), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

90+5'

M. Haile-Selassie

Substitution, Chicago Fire: A. Hanche Olsen comes on for M. Haile-Selassie.

90+4'

M. Pineda

Yellow card for M. Pineda (Chicago Fire) for foul.

90+2'

T. Martins

Attempt missed. T. Martins (New York City FC), header from a set piece. xG 0.01.

90+2'

Luighi

Attempt missed. Luighi (New York City FC), header from a set piece. xG 0.15.

90'

9 minutes of added time.

90'

New York City FC

Offside, New York City FC.

87'

M. Haile-Selassie

Goal! Chicago Fire 2-1 New York City FC. M. Haile-Selassie (Chicago Fire) scores.

87'

J. Elliott

Attempt missed. J. Elliott (Chicago Fire), header from a corner. xG 0.59.

86'

Chicago Fire

Corner, Chicago Fire.

86'

P. Dithejane

Attempt saved. P. Dithejane (Chicago Fire), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.

82'

Raul Gustavo

Attempt missed. Raul Gustavo (New York City FC), header from a corner. xG 0.28.

82'

H. Wolf

Substitution, New York City FC: M. Jones comes on for H. Wolf.

82'

New York City FC

Corner, New York City FC.

81'

New York City FC

Corner, New York City FC.

77'

M. Haile-Selassie

Attempt blocked. M. Haile-Selassie (Chicago Fire), right-footed shot. xG 0.21.

76'

J. Sands

Substitution, New York City FC: J. Shore comes on for J. Sands.

75'

A. Ojeda

Substitution, New York City FC: B. Traore comes on for A. Ojeda.

73'

T. Gray

Attempt missed. T. Gray (New York City FC), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

72'

New York City FC

Corner, New York City FC.

71'

P. Zinckernagel

Substitution, Chicago Fire: P. Dithejane comes on for P. Zinckernagel.

71'

R. Lewandowski

Substitution, Chicago Fire: J. A. Gomez comes on for R. Lewandowski.

71'

L. Barroso

Substitution, Chicago Fire: N. Allen comes on for L. Barroso.

65'

N. Fernández

Attempt blocked. N. Fernández (New York City FC), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

64'

M. Mbokazi

Yellow card for M. Mbokazi (Chicago Fire) for foul.

63'

Chicago Fire

Offside, Chicago Fire.

63'

New York City FC

Offside, New York City FC.

60'

A. Martínez

Substitution, New York City FC: Luighi comes on for A. Martínez.

60'

A. Perea

Substitution, New York City FC: Raul Gustavo comes on for A. Perea.

58'

Chicago Fire

Offside, Chicago Fire.

57'

M. Haile-Selassie

Attempt blocked. M. Haile-Selassie (Chicago Fire), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

55'

A. Salétros

Goal! Chicago Fire 1-1 New York City FC. A. Salétros (Chicago Fire) scores, assisted by M. Haile-Selassie.

54'

A. Salétros

Attempt saved. A. Salétros (Chicago Fire), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

52'

Chicago Fire

Corner, Chicago Fire.

46'

J. Bamba

Substitution, Chicago Fire: M. Pineda comes on for J. Bamba.

46'

N. Cavallo

Substitution, New York City FC: K. O'Toole comes on for N. Cavallo.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Chicago Fire 0-1 New York City FC.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

43'

D. T. D'Avilla

Second yellow card for D. T. D'Avilla (Chicago Fire), who is sent off.

40'

P. Zinckernagel

Attempt missed. P. Zinckernagel (Chicago Fire), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

38'

A. Martínez

Attempt saved. A. Martínez (New York City FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

33'

Chicago Fire

Corner, Chicago Fire.

31'

P. Zinckernagel

Attempt blocked. P. Zinckernagel (Chicago Fire), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

31'

A. Salétros

Attempt missed. A. Salétros (Chicago Fire), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

29'

N. Fernández

Attempt missed. N. Fernández (New York City FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

27'

R. Lewandowski

Attempt missed. R. Lewandowski (Chicago Fire), header. xG 0.09.

27'

D. T. D'Avilla

Attempt blocked. D. T. D'Avilla (Chicago Fire), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

26'

J. Elliott

Attempt missed. J. Elliott (Chicago Fire), header from a corner. xG 0.05.

25'

Chicago Fire

Corner, Chicago Fire.

24'

A. Martínez

Attempt missed. A. Martínez (New York City FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.58.

20'

D. T. D'Avilla

Yellow card for D. T. D'Avilla (Chicago Fire) for foul.

19'

H. Wolf

Goal! Chicago Fire 0-1 New York City FC. H. Wolf (New York City FC) scores, assisted by A. Ojeda.

17'

Chicago Fire

Offside, Chicago Fire.

12'

M. Mbokazi

Attempt missed. M. Mbokazi (Chicago Fire), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

11'

A. Ojeda

Attempt saved. A. Ojeda (New York City FC), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

3'

A. Martínez

Attempt saved. A. Martínez (New York City FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.21.

3'

New York City FC

Corner, New York City FC.

1'

Kick-off: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC.

Where the money is

509968 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks, 2 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 209676 EUR · live

Home 1.05 · implied 95.2%

56.1%

-39.1 vs price

Draw 13.0 · implied 7.7%

28.8%

+21.1 vs price

Away 200.0 · implied 0.5%

15.0%

+14.5 vs price

Half time 1940 EUR · live

Away 1.12 · implied 89.3%

73.5%

-15.7 vs price

Draw 8.8 · implied 11.4%

15.1%

+3.7 vs price

Home 15.0 · implied 6.7%

11.2%

+4.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 86958 EUR · live

Over 3.4 · implied 29.4%

62.4%

+33.0 vs price

Under 1.41 · implied 70.9%

37.6%

-33.3 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 1881 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

91.0%

-8.0 vs price

Over 38.0 · implied 2.6%

8.9%

+6.3 vs price

10 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 4 clips

Player of the match

Match events

19' ⚽ H. Wolf · assist A. Ojeda0–1

20' D. T. D'Avilla · Foul

43' D. T. D'Avilla · Foul

Half-time · 0–1

46' 🔁 K. O'Toole ◂ N. Cavallo

46' 🔁 M. Pineda ◂ J. Bamba

55' ⚽ A. Salétros · assist M. Haile-Selassie1–1

60' 🔁 Raul Gustavo ◂ A. Perea

60' 🔁 Luighi ◂ A. Martínez

64' M. Mbokazi · Foul

71' 🔁 N. Allen ◂ L. Barroso

71' 🔁 J. A. Gomez ◂ R. Lewandowski

71' 🔁 P. Dithejane ◂ P. Zinckernagel

75' 🔁 B. Traore ◂ A. Ojeda

76' 🔁 J. Shore ◂ J. Sands

82' 🔁 M. Jones ◂ H. Wolf

87' ⚽ M. Haile-Selassie2–1

Full-time · 2–1

90'⁺⁴ M. Pineda · Foul

90'⁺⁵ 🔁 A. Hanche Olsen ◂ M. Haile-Selassie

Coaches

Gregg Berhalter

Pascal Jansen

Recent form

Chicago Fire

WHVancouver Whitecaps3-1

WACharlotte FC1-0

LANashville SC0-3

LHNew England Revolution1-2

DHInter Miami CF1-1

New York City FC

DAAtlanta United2-2

LHNew York Red Bulls0-1

WAReal Salt Lake2-0

LHNew England Revolution1-2

DHNashville SC0-0

About this match

**Chicago's got the form, but NYCFC owns this matchup — let's see if the away curse bites them at Soldier Field.** 🔥

Fire are rolling (2W in their last 5) while City slipped to a draw with Atlanta and a loss to the Red Bulls. But rewind the H2H and it's a **completely different story** — NYCFC have dominated this fixture, winning 14 of the last 25. Expect a scrappy, tight affair.

Key storylines:

- **Chicago riding momentum at home** but missing A. Franco (ACL) and A. Salétros (muscle), so depth will be tested
- **NYCFC's injury crisis** — A. Martínez, A. Baiera, A. Farnos, K. Parks, and M. Moralez all out — forces their hand into a makeshift XI
- **R. Lewandowski and R. Lod** need to click for Fire's attack to punish City's stretched backline

Expected lineups:

- **Chicago Fire**: C. Brady, J. Elliott, J. Dean, N. Allen, A. Gutman, D. T. D'Avilla, P. Zinckernagel, R. Lod, R. Lewandowski, J. Bamba, M. Haile-Selassie
- **New York City FC**: T. Romero, N. Cavallo, T. Martins, Raul Gustavo, T. Gray, J. Sands, A. Perea, B. Traore, M. Freese, A. Ojeda, N. Fernández

Prediction:

**Chicago 2–1 NYCFC** — Fire lean on home form and City's injury overload, but it'll go down to the wire. ⚪

Where to watch

Apple TV

Match facts

Stadium

Soldier Field

City

Chicago

Referee

Brandon Stevis

Kickoff

10 Oct, 18:30 UTC

Competition

MLS

Highlights & clips

Chicago Fire 4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1 New York City FC

1 C. Brady 7.2 24 J. Dean 6.8 3 J. Elliott 6.5 4 M. Mbokazi 6.9 32 N. Allen 6.7 ↑ 71' 18 J. A. Gomez 6.7 ↑ 71' 6 A. Salétros 7.8 42 D. T. D'Avilla 5.3 22 M. Pineda 6.6 ↑ 46' 12 P. Dithejane 6.6 ↑ 71' 21 A. Hanche Olsen ↑ 90' 49 M. Freese 5.8 24 T. Gray 7.1 13 T. Martins 6.7 32 J. Shore 6.4 ↑ 76' 22 K. O'Toole 5.7 ↑ 46' 21 A. O'Neill 7.7 34 Raul Gustavo 6.6 ↑ 60' 9 B. Traore 6.5 ↑ 75' 7 N. Fernández 8.0 88 M. Jones 6.8 ↑ 82' 20 Luighi 6.4 ↑ 60'

Substitutes

44GJ. Cohen 2DL. Barroso↓ 71'6.7 15DA. Gutman 7MM. Haile-Selassie↓ 90'8.6 11MP. Zinckernagel↓ 71'6.9 29MD. Poreba 35MS. Oregel 19FJ. Bamba↓ 46'6.7 9FR. Lewandowski↓ 71'6.0

Coach: Gregg Berhalter

Substitutes

30GT. Romero 2DN. Cavallo↓ 46'6.8 23DM. Murray 3DM. Miazga 17MH. Wolf↓ 82'7.3 26MA. Ojeda↓ 75'7.0 6MJ. Sands↓ 76'6.8 8MA. Perea↓ 60'6.7 16FA. Martínez↓ 60'6.2

Coach: Pascal Jansen

Top stats

47%Possession53%

1.38Expected goals (xG)1.4

14Total shots12

4Shots on target6

2Big chances4

4Corners4

Shots

6Shots off target4

4Blocked shots2

9Shots inside box6

5Shots outside box6

1Big chances scored0

1Big chances missed4

0.38Goals prevented-0.3

Attack

26Touches in box16

60Final third entries53

4Offsides2

10Free kicks18

2Fouled in final third4

Passing

377Passes418

297Accurate passes336

18/53 (34%)Long balls29/67 (43%)

5/16 (31%)Crosses6/17 (35%)

28Throw-ins17

Duels

47Duels53

31/69 (45%)Ground duels38/69 (55%)

8/14 (57%)Aerial duels6/14 (43%)

7/11 (64%)Dribbles3/11 (27%)

13Dispossessed6

Defending

14Tackles17

86Tackles won59

12Interceptions8

17Clearances26

39Recoveries45

Discipline

18Fouls10

4Yellow cards0

1Red cards0

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

1Big saves1

4Goal kicks6

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 15 bookmakers

Chicago 53%

23%

NY City 23%

BTTSBoth teams to score 63% · 1.53 @ Betway

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 61% · 1.53 @ Bet365

1X2Chicago to win 53% · 2.30 @ Bet365

Who winsChicago to win (DNB) 67% · 1.48 @ Unibet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 81% · 1.17 @ Bet365

CornersOver 8.5 corners 58%

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66%

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54%

1X2Draw 23% · 2.50 @ Bet365

1X2NY City to win 23% · 4.33 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 60% · 1.57 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.71

Chicago Fire

3.90

Draw

3.90

New York City FC

Double Chanceconsensus

1.25

Chicago Fire or Draw

1.25

Chicago Fire or New York City FC

2.00

Draw or New York City FC

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.49

Yes

2.50

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

17.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.17

Over 1.50

5.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.53

Over 2.50

2.40

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.25

Over 3.50

1.57

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.00

Over 4.50

1.22

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.47

Chicago Fire

2.58

New York City FC

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

2.30

Chicago Fire

2.50

Draw

4.33

New York City FC

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Over 1.5 goals

✓

81% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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