Inter Miami CF 2-2 FC Cincinnati: Stats & xG – Oct 28, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Inter Miami CF 2-2 FC Cincinnati.

90+5'

FC Cincinnati

Corner, FC Cincinnati.

90+5'

Evander

Attempt blocked. Evander (FC Cincinnati), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

90+4'

L. Suárez

Yellow card for L. Suárez (Inter Miami CF) for time wasting.

90+3'

T. Segovia

Yellow card for T. Segovia (Inter Miami CF) for foul.

90+1'

L. Suárez

Attempt saved. L. Suárez (Inter Miami CF), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

90+1'

K. M. Dem

Substitution, FC Cincinnati: J. Martínez comes on for K. M. Dem.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

90'

Riquelme

Goal! Inter Miami CF 2-2 FC Cincinnati. Riquelme (Inter Miami CF) scores, assisted by R. De Paul.

89'

T. Segovia

Off the woodwork! T. Segovia (Inter Miami CF), header from a corner. xG 0.01.

88'

Inter Miami CF

Corner, Inter Miami CF.

86'

S. Gidi

Goal! Inter Miami CF 1-2 FC Cincinnati. S. Gidi (FC Cincinnati) scores, assisted by T. Barlow.

84'

FC Cincinnati

Corner, FC Cincinnati.

84'

Evander

Attempt blocked. Evander (FC Cincinnati), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

83'

G. Berterame

Substitution, Inter Miami CF: Riquelme comes on for G. Berterame.

82'

R. De Paul

Attempt blocked. R. De Paul (Inter Miami CF), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

80'

K. M. Dem

Goal! Inter Miami CF 1-1 FC Cincinnati. K. M. Dem (FC Cincinnati) scores, assisted by Evander.

80'

B. Ramírez

Attempt saved. B. Ramírez (FC Cincinnati), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

79'

Inter Miami CF

Offside, Inter Miami CF.

75'

Inter Miami CF

Offside, Inter Miami CF.

74'

FC Cincinnati

Offside, FC Cincinnati.

72'

O. Nwobodo

Substitution, FC Cincinnati: T. Anunga comes on for O. Nwobodo.

72'

T. Hadebe

Substitution, FC Cincinnati: A. Powell comes on for T. Hadebe.

71'

K. M. Dem

Attempt missed. K. M. Dem (FC Cincinnati), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

70'

L. Messi

Attempt missed. L. Messi (Inter Miami CF), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

69'

Inter Miami CF

Corner, Inter Miami CF.

65'

Evander

Attempt blocked. Evander (FC Cincinnati), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

63'

G. Valenzuela

Substitution, FC Cincinnati: K. Smith comes on for G. Valenzuela.

61'

L. Suárez

Goal! Inter Miami CF 1-0 FC Cincinnati. L. Suárez (Inter Miami CF) scores, assisted by Casemiro.

60'

Inter Miami CF

Corner, Inter Miami CF.

60'

L. Messi

Attempt blocked. L. Messi (Inter Miami CF), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

60'

R. De Paul

Attempt saved. R. De Paul (Inter Miami CF), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

58'

L. Messi

Attempt missed. L. Messi (Inter Miami CF), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

57'

FC Cincinnati

Offside, FC Cincinnati.

57'

G. Valenzuela

Attempt blocked. G. Valenzuela (FC Cincinnati), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

55'

L. Suárez

Attempt missed. L. Suárez (Inter Miami CF), right-footed shot. xG 0.30.

52'

Inter Miami CF

Offside, Inter Miami CF.

51'

L. Suárez

Attempt missed. L. Suárez (Inter Miami CF), right-footed shot. xG 0.14.

50'

T. Segovia

Attempt blocked. T. Segovia (Inter Miami CF), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

46'

M. Galarza

Substitution, Inter Miami CF: T. Segovia comes on for M. Galarza.

46'

S. Reguilón

Substitution, Inter Miami CF: I. Fray comes on for S. Reguilón.

46'

D. Doudera

Substitution, FC Cincinnati: T. Barlow comes on for D. Doudera.

46'

FC Cincinnati

Offside, FC Cincinnati.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Inter Miami CF 0-0 FC Cincinnati.

45+1'

Evander

Attempt missed. Evander (FC Cincinnati), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

44'

L. Messi

Yellow card for L. Messi (Inter Miami CF) for foul.

39'

L. Messi

Attempt blocked. L. Messi (Inter Miami CF), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

36'

Evander

Attempt blocked. Evander (FC Cincinnati), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

32'

Inter Miami CF

Corner, Inter Miami CF.

32'

L. Messi

Attempt blocked. L. Messi (Inter Miami CF), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

28'

Inter Miami CF

Offside, Inter Miami CF.

23'

Evander

Attempt blocked. Evander (FC Cincinnati), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

11'

T. Hadebe

Attempt missed. T. Hadebe (FC Cincinnati), header from a corner. xG 0.22.

10'

FC Cincinnati

Corner, FC Cincinnati.

10'

B. Ramírez

Attempt blocked. B. Ramírez (FC Cincinnati), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

1'

Kick-off: Inter Miami CF vs FC Cincinnati.

Where the money is

664148 EUR matched · captured 4 days, 22 hours ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 316043 EUR · live

Home 17.5 · implied 5.7%

69.8%

+64.0 vs price

Draw 1.05 · implied 95.2%

15.9%

-79.4 vs price

Away 34.0 · implied 2.9%

14.4%

+11.5 vs price

Half time 639 EUR

Home 2.02 · implied 49.5%

92.4%

+42.9 vs price

Away 4.8 · implied 20.8%

6.0%

-14.8 vs price

Draw 3.4 · implied 29.4%

1.6%

-27.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 120285 EUR · live

Under 1.62 · implied 61.7%

53.1%

-8.6 vs price

Over 2.64 · implied 37.9%

46.9%

+9.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 300 EUR

Over 3.5 · implied 28.6%

61.2%

+32.7 vs price

Under 1.4 · implied 71.4%

38.8%

-32.7 vs price

15 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 5 clips

Player of the match

Match events

44' L. Messi · Foul

Half-time · 0–0

46' 🔁 T. Barlow ◂ D. Doudera

46' 🔁 I. Fray ◂ S. Reguilón

46' 🔁 T. Segovia ◂ M. Galarza

61' ⚽ L. Suárez · assist Casemiro1–0

63' 🔁 K. Smith ◂ G. Valenzuela

72' 🔁 A. Powell ◂ T. Hadebe

72' 🔁 T. Anunga ◂ O. Nwobodo

80' ⚽ K. M. Dem · assist Evander1–1

83' 🔁 Riquelme ◂ G. Berterame

86' ⚽ S. Gidi · assist T. Barlow1–2

Full-time · 2–2

90' ⚽ Riquelme · assist R. De Paul2–2

90'⁺¹ 🔁 J. Martínez ◂ K. M. Dem

90'⁺³ T. Segovia · Foul

90'⁺⁴ L. Suárez · Time wasting

Coaches

Kily Gonzalez

Pat Noonan

Recent form

Inter Miami CF

LANew York Red Bulls0-2

WAAtlanta United3-1

WHNew York City FC2-0

WHDC United4-0

LAColumbus Crew1-2

FC Cincinnati

WADC United2-0

WHDC United2-1

LHColumbus Crew0-2

LHNew England Revolution2-3

WAAtlanta United3-1

About this match

**Miami's on fire, Cincinnati's running on fumes — this could get messy.** Both sides sit 3W-2L over five, but Inter Miami's got the star power and home advantage to pull away here 🔥

Miami just bested Atlanta and City at home, while Cincy's suffered more injuries than wins lately. The visitors are dealing with five absentees, including key defenders, which spells trouble against **Messi, Suárez,** and a midfield anchored by **Casemiro.**

Key storylines:

- **Messi and Suárez** face a depleted Cincinnati backline missing **Malatini, Robinson,** and **Martínez**
- **Casemiro** controls the tempo against **Bucha and Powell** in a potential midfield mismatch
- Miami's unbeaten run at home (2W last stretch) vs Cincinnati's injury crisis — momentum clash

Expected lineups:

- **Inter Miami CF**: D. St. Clair, S. Reguilón, Micael, G. Luján, I. Fray, D. Ayala, Casemiro, R. De Paul, G. Berterame, L. Suárez, L. Messi
- **FC Cincinnati**: R. Celentano, T. Hadebe, N. Hagglund, K. Smith, A. Chirila, A. Powell, P. Bucha, S. Gidi, G. Valenzuela, K. Denkey, Evander

Prediction:

**Miami 3–1 Cincinnati.** Inter Miami slight favorite — home form, attacking depth, and Cincinnati's injury count all point one way.

Where to watch

Apple TV

Match facts

Stadium

Nu Stadium

City

Miami

Referee

Armando Villarrea

3.94 yellows/match · 32 matches

Kickoff

28 Oct, 23:30 UTC

Competition

MLS

Highlights & clips

Inter Miami CF 4-3-3 · 3-5-2 FC Cincinnati

97 D. St. Clair 5.3 2 G. Luján 6.5 5 Casemiro 7.2 16 Micael 6.8 17 I. Fray 6.7 ↑ 46' 7 R. De Paul 7.6 22 D. Ayala 7.0 8 T. Segovia 6.4 ↑ 46' 10 L. Messi 7.0 9 L. Suárez 7.4 11 Riquelme 7.3 ↑ 83' 18 R. Celentano 6.0 11 S. Gidi 7.4 4 N. Hagglund 6.8 2 A. Powell 6.6 ↑ 72' 16 T. Barlow 6.8 ↑ 46' 24 K. Smith 6.8 ↑ 63' 10 Evander 7.5 27 T. Anunga 6.6 ↑ 72' 29 B. Ramírez 6.3 9 K. Denkey 6.6 70 J. Martínez ↑ 90'

Substitutes

34GR. Ríos Novo 3DS. Reguilón↓ 46'7.0 4DF. Mura 37DM. Falcón 80MM. Galarza↓ 46'6.3 20MS. Morales 42MY. Bright 19FG. Berterame↓ 83'6.6 56FD. Pinter

Coach: Kily Gonzalez

Substitutes

13GE. Louro 15DT. Hadebe↓ 72'6.6 88DA. Chirila 5MO. Nwobodo↓ 72'7.1 22MG. Valenzuela↓ 63'6.7 23MD. Doudera↓ 46'6.5 20MP. Bucha 17FK. M. Dem↓ 90'8.1 99FA. Jabbari

Coach: Pat Noonan

Top stats

60%Possession40%

0.87Expected goals (xG)0.75

14Total shots13

4Shots on target3

4Corners3

Shots

4Shots off target3

6Blocked shots7

8Shots inside box6

6Shots outside box7

-0.96Goals prevented-0.44

Attack

28Touches in box16

52Final third entries46

4Offsides3

10Free kicks9

1Fouled in final third4

Passing

612Passes399

568Accurate passes346

43/55 (78%)Long balls21/45 (47%)

2/10 (20%)Crosses1/8 (13%)

12Throw-ins11

Duels

45Duels55

26/61 (43%)Ground duels35/61 (57%)

10/19 (53%)Aerial duels9/19 (47%)

8/18 (44%)Dribbles7/10 (70%)

9Dispossessed5

Defending

8Tackles19

63Tackles won58

14Interceptions3

11Clearances21

39Recoveries42

Discipline

9Fouls10

3Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

5Goal kicks6

1Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 15 bookmakers

Inter Miami 61%

19%

Cincinnati 19%

GoalsOver 3.5 goals 57% · 1.57 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 77% · 1.22 @ Bet365

BTTSBoth teams to score 71% · 1.32 @ Betano

1X2Inter Miami to win 61% · 1.91 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 91% · 1.05 @ Bet365

Who winsInter Miami to win (DNB) 75% · 1.27 @ Betano

CornersOver 8.5 corners 59%

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 65%

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53%

1X2Draw 19% · 3.00 @ Bet365

1X2Cincinnati to win 19% · 4.50 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.49

Inter Miami CF

4.75

Draw

4.75

FC Cincinnati

Double Chanceconsensus

1.18

Inter Miami CF or Draw

1.18

Inter Miami CF or FC Cincinnati

2.38

Draw or FC Cincinnati

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.30

Yes

3.30

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.00

Over 0.50

34.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.05

Over 1.50

11.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.22

Over 2.50

4.20

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

1.57

Over 3.50

2.25

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

2.25

Over 4.50

1.57

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.25

Inter Miami CF

3.60

FC Cincinnati

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

1.91

Inter Miami CF

3.00

Draw

4.50

FC Cincinnati

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Over 1.5 goals

✓

91% confidence

Inter Miami CF to win or draw

✓

81% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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