**Montpellier's home advantage looks decisive here** — they're on a decent run while Pau FC keeps stumbling into draws and losses. 🔴

Montpellier have won 2 of their last 5 and only dropped points at home once (0-0 vs Boulogne). Pau, meanwhile, are bleeding goals in draws and can't string wins together. The H2H is a curveball — Pau have won 2 of the last 3 — but form trumps history at this stage of the season.

Key storylines:

- **Montpellier's attacking thrust** through Y. Issoufou and N. Vidal should find space against Pau's stretched back line
- **Pau's defensive fragility** — 2-2 vs Rodez and 1-1 vs Sochaux suggest they can't hold leads or shut teams out
- **Home record matters** — Montpellier unbeaten at Stade de la Mosson (W-D so far)

Expected lineups:

- **Montpellier**: S. Ngapandouetnbu, T. S. Luce, J. Laporte, D. Meddah, Y. Issoufou, T. Chennahi, N. Vidal, N. Pays, M. Camara
- **Pau FC**: B. Maubleu, A. Dodote, A. Bamba, A. Briançon, G. Paquiez, J. Benet, L. Rajot, H. Benali, B. Leye

Prediction:

**Montpellier 2–1 Pau FC** — home side control the midfield and Pau's defensive frailties come back to haunt them. Lean Montpellier. ⚪