Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Saint-Étienne are the heavy favorites here** — they're riding a four-win streak at home, while Lavallois just can't find consistency. 🔴
ASSE's defense has tightened up recently (only one loss in five), but that 3-0 hammering at Guingamp is a reminder they're not untouchable. Lavallois, meanwhile, are all over the place: a win, a draw, two losses in their last four — classic mid-table chaos.
Key storylines:
- **Saint-Étienne's home form** is the story — unbeaten in recent weeks at Stade Geoffroy Guichard, and the head-to-head record (12 wins in 28 meetings) says they own this fixture
- **Stade Lavallois lack rhythm** — they've drawn with Clermont and lost to Nancy; going away to a dominant ASSE team is a tough ask
- **J. Duffus and A. Boakye** will be key to breaking down a shaky Lavallois backline that's conceding regularly
Expected lineups:
- **Saint-Étienne**: G. Larsonneur, B. Old, S. Nair, M. Bernauer, K. Pedro, Á. Csongvai, J. L. Cardinal, Z. Davitashvili, J. Breum, A. Boakye, J. Duffus
- **Stade Lavallois**: M. Samassa, J. Gaudin, W. Bianda, S. Bane, E. Mouton, A. Lô, S. Sanna, T. Bouriaud, M. Houdayer, A. Kanté, T. Dago
Prediction:
**Saint-Étienne 2–0 Stade Lavallois**
ASSE's home fortress is too strong for a Lavallois side still hunting for stability. Expect a workmanlike, clinical win.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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