Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Timeline
J. Rodríguez
8'
J. Gallardo
18'
⚽P. Pérez
assist A. Palavecino
assist A. Palavecino
21'
⚽M. Ruíz
assist A. Vega
assist A. Vega
27'
⚽J. R. Angulo
assist M. Ruíz
assist M. Ruíz
41'
⚽
45'
⚽
45'
M. Ruíz
45'+1
🔁J. Rojas ◂ J. Alcantar
60'
🔁F. Rossano ◂ P. Pérez
60'
🔁R. Morales ◂ Paulinho
66'
🔁Bruno Méndez ◂ J. Domínguez
66'
🔁R. Sánchez ◂ R. Monreal
71'
🔁N. Castro ◂ J. R. Angulo
75'
🔁T. Badaloni ◂ C. Calderón
83'
🔁A. Andrade ◂ J. Rodríguez
83'
🔁Helinho ◂ A. Vega
88'
D. d. Buen
88'
🔁E. López ◂ D. Barbosa
89'
⚽
90'
⚽Helinho
assist N. Castro
assist N. Castro
90'
⚽
90'
Unknown
-5'
Coaches
Antonio MohamedMartin Varini 
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Nemesio Diez
City
Toluca
Referee
Fernando Hernandez
Kickoff
13 Jul, 01:00 UTC
CD Toluca
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3
Club Necaxa
22
L. García
7.2
2
D. Barbosa
7.1
13
Luan
6.8
6
F. Pereira
7.0
20
J. Gallardo
6.9
5
F. Romero
6.3
14
M. Ruíz
9.5
7
J. Domínguez
7.0
10
J. R. Angulo
6.9
9
A. Vega
7.6
26
Paulinho
6.5
22
E. Unsaín
6.7
4
A. Peña
7.0
14
D. d. Buen
6.1
6
J. Alcantar
6.5
7
K. Rosero
6.8
29
J. Rodríguez
7.1
8
A. Palavecino
7.4
16
C. Calderón
6.8
30
R. Monreal
6.6
27
D. Cambindo
6.6
15
P. Pérez
7.1
Substitutes
4Bruno Méndez7.231R. Morales6.78N. Castro6.711Helinho7.525E. López1H. Gonzalez184S. Aceves33V. Arteaga16H. Herrera23O. Virgen
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
55%Possession45%
2.42Expected goals (xG)0.9
21Total shots11
7Shots on target4
7Big chances2
7Corners4
11Fouls13
2Yellow cards2