Atalanta 3-1 Pafos FC: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 15, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Atalanta 3-1 Pafos FC.

90+4'

Atalanta

Corner, Atalanta.

90+3'

E. Elmas

Attempt missed. E. Elmas (Atalanta), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

90+3'

L. Samardžić

Off the woodwork! L. Samardžić (Atalanta), left-footed shot. xG 0.12.

90+3'

E. Elmas

Attempt saved. E. Elmas (Atalanta), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

88'

Biel

Goal! Atalanta 3-1 Pafos FC. Biel (Pafos FC) scores, assisted by A. Silva.

87'

Atalanta

Offside, Atalanta.

85'

Atalanta

Offside, Atalanta.

82'

C. De Ketelaere

Attempt missed. C. De Ketelaere (Atalanta), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

82'

Atalanta

Corner, Atalanta.

80'

T. Kristensen

Substitution, Atalanta: J. Idele comes on for T. Kristensen.

76'

C. De Ketelaere

Attempt missed. C. De Ketelaere (Atalanta), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.14.

73'

A. Silva

Attempt saved. A. Silva (Pafos FC), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

73'

Biel

Attempt saved. Biel (Pafos FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.38.

72'

G. Scamacca

Attempt missed. G. Scamacca (Atalanta), header from a corner. xG 0.12.

71'

G. Scamacca

Attempt blocked. G. Scamacca (Atalanta), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

70'

Atalanta

Corner, Atalanta.

69'

Pêpê

Substitution, Pafos FC: Guga comes on for Pêpê.

69'

Lelê

Substitution, Pafos FC: A. Silva comes on for Lelê.

67'

C. De Ketelaere

Attempt missed. C. De Ketelaere (Atalanta), header from a corner. xG 0.18.

67'

G. Scamacca

Attempt missed. G. Scamacca (Atalanta), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.12.

67'

M. Pašalić

Substitution, Atalanta: Éderson comes on for M. Pašalić.

67'

N. Zalewski

Substitution, Atalanta: L. Samardžić comes on for N. Zalewski.

66'

Atalanta

Corner, Atalanta.

66'

G. Gaetano

Attempt blocked. G. Gaetano (Atalanta), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

60'

G. Gaetano

Attempt missed. G. Gaetano (Atalanta), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.

50'

R. S. Pinto

Yellow card for R. S. Pinto (Pafos FC) for argument.

49'

Atalanta

Corner, Atalanta.

49'

N. Zalewski

Attempt saved. N. Zalewski (Atalanta), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

46'

Bruno

Substitution, Pafos FC: J. Correia comes on for Bruno.

46'

D. Quina

Substitution, Pafos FC: A. Brito comes on for D. Quina.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Atalanta 3-0 Pafos FC.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

44'

G. Scamacca

Goal! Atalanta 3-0 Pafos FC. G. Scamacca (Atalanta) scores, assisted by C. De Ketelaere.

41'

V. Dragomir

Attempt saved. V. Dragomir (Pafos FC), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.

41'

Biel

Attempt saved. Biel (Pafos FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

41'

Pafos FC

Corner, Pafos FC.

38'

Lelê

Attempt missed. Lelê (Pafos FC), header. xG 0.08.

37'

D. Luiz

Substitution, Pafos FC: K. Sema comes on for D. Luiz.

34'

C. De Ketelaere

Attempt blocked. C. De Ketelaere (Atalanta), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

31'

G. Scamacca

Attempt saved. G. Scamacca (Atalanta), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

24'

Lelê

Attempt missed. Lelê (Pafos FC), right-footed shot. xG 0.25.

21'

G. Raspadori

Substitution, Atalanta: C. De Ketelaere comes on for G. Raspadori.

18'

G. Raspadori

Goal! Atalanta 2-0 Pafos FC. G. Raspadori (Atalanta) converts the penalty.

16'

T. Kristensen

Attempt missed. T. Kristensen (Atalanta), header from a corner. xG 0.09.

16'

Atalanta

Corner, Atalanta.

15'

G. Raspadori

Attempt saved. G. Raspadori (Atalanta), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

12'

Pêpê

Attempt missed. Pêpê (Pafos FC), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

12'

Pafos FC

Corner, Pafos FC.

4'

G. Raspadori

Attempt blocked. G. Raspadori (Atalanta), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.04.

1'

E. Elmas

Goal! Atalanta 1-0 Pafos FC. E. Elmas (Atalanta) scores, assisted by G. Raspadori.

1'

Kick-off: Atalanta vs Pafos FC.

Where the money is

419004 EUR matched · captured 1 week, 2 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 240398 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

94.0%

-5.0 vs price

Draw 300.0 · implied 0.3%

3.3%

+3.0 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

2.7%

+2.6 vs price

Half time 1570 EUR · live

Home 1.02 · implied 98.0%

76.6%

-21.4 vs price

Draw 8.4 · implied 11.9%

23.2%

+11.3 vs price

Away 7.6 · implied 13.2%

0.1%

-13.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 31879 EUR · live

Over 1.13 · implied 88.5%

77.7%

-10.8 vs price

Under 8.6 · implied 11.6%

22.3%

+10.7 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 8684 EUR · live

Over 1.81 · implied 55.2%

55.5%

+0.3 vs price

Under 2.16 · implied 46.3%

44.5%

-1.8 vs price

14 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Player of the match

Match events

1' ⚽ E. Elmas · assist G. Raspadori1–0

18' ⚽ G. Raspadori (pen)2–0

21' 🔁 C. De Ketelaere ◂ G. Raspadori

37' 🔁 K. Sema ◂ D. Luiz

44' ⚽ G. Scamacca · assist C. De Ketelaere3–0

Half-time · 3–0

46' 🔁 A. Brito ◂ D. Quina

46' 🔁 J. Correia ◂ Bruno

50' R. S. Pinto · Argument

67' 🔁 L. Samardžić ◂ N. Zalewski

67' 🔁 Éderson ◂ M. Pašalić

69' 🔁 A. Silva ◂ Lelê

69' 🔁 Guga ◂ Pêpê

80' 🔁 J. Idele ◂ T. Kristensen

88' ⚽ Biel · assist A. Silva3–1

Full-time · 3–1

Coaches

Maurizio Sarri

Ricardo Sá Pinto

Recent form

Atalanta

WHVenezia3-1

LAJuventus0-2

LHCagliari1-2

LAAS Roma1-2

WHBologna1-0

Pafos FC

WHDinamo City4-2

DADinamo City1-1

DHRed Bull Salzburg3-3

LARed Bull Salzburg0-1

WHHNK Hajduk Split4-0

About this match

**Atalanta roll in heavy favorites, but Pafos are scrappy enough to make this interesting.** The Bergamo boys have stumbled lately (one win in their last three), yet they're still up against a Cypriot outfit that's been drawing everyone from Red Bull Salzburg to Dinamo City. 🔴⚫

Atalanta's form is patchy — a 3-1 thumping of Venezia sandwiched between defeats to Juve and Cagliari. Pafos, meanwhile, live for the chaos: they're pulling off 4-2 wins and 3-3 draws like it's their job. Missing **Raspadori**, **Sulemana**, and **Kossounou** stings, but **Scamacca** and **De Ketelaere** should still carry the load at home.

Key storylines:

- **Scamacca** needs a confidence boost after a rough patch; Pafos' leaky defense offers a golden chance
- **De Ketelaere** has been quiet but thrives in European competition against smaller sides
- Pafos lean hard on set-piece organization and counterattack — they'll nick a goal if Atalanta doze off

Expected lineups:

- **Atalanta**: M. Carnesecchi, G. Scalvini, S. Kolašinac, T. Kristensen, R. Bellanova, Éderson, L. Samardžić, C. De Ketelaere, G. Scamacca, N. Krstović
- **Pafos FC**: R. Majecki, K. Sema, D. Luiz, D. Goldar, I. Šunjić, Pêpê, Guga, N. M. Ngamaleu, A. Silva, J. Correia

Prediction:

**Atalanta 2–1 Pafos**. Home edge and quality shine through, but don't be shocked if Pafos bag a consolation. 🎯

Where to watch

Disney+ (AR)ViX

Match facts

Stadium

New Balance Arena

City

Bergamo

Referee

Adam Ladeback

3.26 yellows/match · 47 matches

Kickoff

15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Competition

Conference League

Atalanta 4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3 Pafos FC

29 M. Carnesecchi 6.5 77 D. Zappacosta 6.8 41 J. Idele 6.5 ↑ 80' 23 S. Kolašinac 7.5 47 L. Bernasconi 6.8 70 G. Gaetano 6.9 10 L. Samardžić 6.2 ↑ 67' 99 E. Elmas 7.6 17 C. De Ketelaere 8.4 ↑ 21' 13 Éderson 6.7 ↑ 67' 9 G. Scamacca 7.5 99 R. Majecki 7.6 50 A. Brito 6.8 ↑ 46' 3 S. Mmaee 7.1 12 K. Sema 6.6 ↑ 37' 14 N. Ioannou 6.4 30 V. Dragomir 6.2 26 I. Šunjić 7.2 6 Guga 6.8 ↑ 69' 77 J. Correia 6.8 ↑ 46' 33 A. Silva 6.9 ↑ 69' 20 Biel 7.8

Substitutes

57GM. Sportiello 51GM. Sonzogni 31DT. Kristensen↓ 80'7.4 40DR. Obrić 59MN. Zalewski↓ 67'7.7 8MM. Pašalić↓ 67'7.0 18FG. Raspadori↓ 21'8.2 11FJ. Rowe 90FN. Krstović

Coach: Maurizio Sarri

Substitutes

82GP. Petrou 71GM. Papastylianou 4DD. Luiz↓ 37'6.1 7DBruno↓ 46'5.2 61DM. Kais 72DK. Ioannou 88MPêpê↓ 69'6.8 8MD. Quina↓ 46'6.6 60MC. Evzonas 42MG. Michael 18FLelê↓ 69'6.0

Coach: Ricardo Sá Pinto

Top stats

65%Possession35%

3.47Expected goals (xG)0.91

20Total shots8

7Shots on target5

3Big chances2

6Corners2

Shots

9Shots off target3

4Blocked shots1

13Shots inside box5

7Shots outside box3

2Hit woodwork0

3Big chances scored1

0Big chances missed1

-0.54Goals prevented0.9

Attack

33Touches in box11

71Final third entries42

2Offsides0

10Free kicks13

4Fouled in final third3

Passing

778Passes419

721Accurate passes357

20/33 (61%)Long balls36/56 (64%)

4/11 (36%)Crosses1/8 (13%)

23Throw-ins12

Duels

48Duels52

23/51 (45%)Ground duels28/51 (55%)

5/7 (71%)Aerial duels2/7 (29%)

6/15 (40%)Dribbles6/13 (46%)

1Dispossessed0

Defending

7Tackles10

71Tackles won40

8Interceptions13

8Clearances13

37Recoveries36

Discipline

13Fouls11

0Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

2Big saves2

4Goal kicks9

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Atalanta 72%

18%

Pafos 11%

1X2Atalanta to win 72% · 1.62 @ William Hill

Who winsAtalanta to win (DNB) 72% · 1.12 @ Betano

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 62% · 3.60 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 81% · 1.83 @ William Hill

CornersOver 8.5 corners 59% · 1.57 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBoth teams to score 51% · 3.50 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 65% · 1.50 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53% · 1.82 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 18% · 3.22 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 61% · 1.65 @ 1xBet

1X2Pafos to win 11% · 7.50 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.30

Atalanta

5.30

Draw

9.00

Pafos FC

Double Chanceconsensus

1.06

Atalanta or Draw

1.15

Atalanta or Pafos FC

3.37

Draw or Pafos FC

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.75

Yes

1.95

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.30

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

17.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.01

Over 0.50

17.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.17

Over 1.50

5.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.51

Over 2.50

2.45

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.36

Over 3.50

1.56

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.32

Over 4.50

1.20

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.08

Atalanta

6.75

Pafos FC

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.28

Over 7.50

3.20

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.55

Over 8.50

2.31

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.94

Over 9.50

1.80

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.51

Over 10.50

1.48

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.40

Over 11.50

1.24

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Atalanta to win or draw

✓

89% confidence

Over 1.5 goals

✓

81% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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