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FC Lugano
A. Riera
FK Crvena zvezda
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
FK Crvena zvezda
FK Crvena zvezda
FC Lugano
Mattia Croci-Torti
FC Lugano
FK Crvena zvezda
FC Lugano
3-4-2-1 · 5-4-1
FK Crvena zvezda
Commentary
90'
Full-time. FC Lugano 3-2 FK Crvena zvezda.
90+3'
FC Lugano
Corner, FC Lugano.
90'
4 minutes of added time.
89'
A. Riera
Yellow card for A. Riera (FK Crvena zvezda) for argument.
87'
FK Crvena zvezda
Corner, FK Crvena zvezda.
84'
Goal! FC Lugano 2-2 FK Crvena zvezda. D. Moncada (FC Lugano) scores, assisted by Y. Cimignani.
72'
FC Lugano
Corner, FC Lugano.
71'
FC Lugano
Offside, FC Lugano.
70'
Attempt missed. A. B. Dieng (FK Crvena zvezda), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.01.
67'
Goal! FC Lugano 1-2 FK Crvena zvezda. R. Krunić (FK Crvena zvezda) scores, assisted by M. Cham-Saračević.
64'
FC Lugano
Offside, FC Lugano.
63'
Attempt missed. A. B. Dieng (FK Crvena zvezda), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.42.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. FC Lugano 1-1 FK Crvena zvezda.
45'
1 minute of added time.
32'
Goal! FC Lugano 1-1 FK Crvena zvezda. T. M. Elšnik (FK Crvena zvezda) scores, assisted by M. Gaštarov.
25'
Goal! FC Lugano 1-0 FK Crvena zvezda. A. Ajeti (FC Lugano) scores, assisted by R. Steffen.
14'
FC Lugano
Corner, FC Lugano.
13'
FC Lugano
Corner, FC Lugano.
12'
Attempt missed. Y. Nakayama (FK Crvena zvezda), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.
11'
FK Crvena zvezda
Corner, FK Crvena zvezda.
10'
FK Crvena zvezda
Corner, FK Crvena zvezda.
8'
FC Lugano
Corner, FC Lugano.
1'
Kick-off: FC Lugano vs FK Crvena zvezda.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
247076 EUR · live
Home
1.05 · implied 95.2%
43.7%
-51.5 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
40.1%
+40.0 vs price
Draw
22.0 · implied 4.5%
16.2%
+11.7 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
23035 EUR · live
Over
1.63 · implied 61.3%
61.8%
+0.5 vs price
Under
2.54 · implied 39.4%
38.2%
-1.2 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
10447 EUR · live
Under
1.3 · implied 76.9%
70.3%
-6.6 vs price
Over
4.2 · implied 23.8%
29.7%
+5.9 vs price
9 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
25'
⚽
A. Ajeti · assist R. Steffen1–0
32'
⚽
T. M. Elšnik · assist M. Gaštarov1–1
33'
V. Kostov · Argument
Half-time · 1–1
53'
R. Steffen · Foul
55'
L. Mai · Foul
63'
🔁
K. Behrens ◂ A. Ajeti
63'
🔁
E. Pihlstrom ◂ R. Steffen
64'
🔁
M. Cham-Saračević ◂ T. Händel
67'
⚽
R. Krunić · assist M. Cham-Saračević1–2
73'
🔁
D. Moncada ◂ B. Karimov
75'
🔁
M. Strika ◂ M. Ristić
75'
🔁
K. Balov ◂ V. Lučić
79'
🔁
E. Alioski ◂ H. Delcroix
79'
🔁
B. Castro ◂ D. Dos Santos
81'
🔁
M. Arnautović ◂ A. B. Dieng
81'
🔁
M. Bajo ◂ R. Krunić
82'
S. Gudelj · Foul
84'
⚽
D. Moncada · assist Y. Cimignani2–2
88'
M. Bajo · Foul
89'
⚽
A. Grgić (pen)3–2
89'
A. Riera · Argument
Full-time · 3–2
90'+4
M. Gaštarov · Foul
Coaches
Mattia Croci-TortiAlbert Riera 
Recent form
FC LuganoWHFC Luzern4-0
LHHellas Verona1-3
WAFC Lausanne-Sport4-0
WHFC St. Gallen 18794-1
DHBSC Young Boys2-2
FK Crvena zvezdaLAFC Viktoria Plzeň1-5
WHFC Viktoria Plzeň3-0
LHHapoel Be'er Sheva0-2
LAHapoel Be'er Sheva0-1
WHLarne FC5-0
About this match
**Lugano's home turf hosts a wounded Red Star side that can't find rhythm in Europe.** This is Swiss precision vs Serbian chaos — and the hosts are heavy favorites. 🇨🇭
Lugano's been electric at home (3W in last 5, two 4-0 hammerings), while Red Star are spiraling: three losses in their last five, including a horror show at Plzeň. Missing key defenders through suspension won't help the visitors' cause.
Key storylines:
- **Lugano's front three** — Behrens, Ajeti, and Grgić — are firing on all cylinders and will fancy tearing into a depleted Red Star backline
- **Red Star's defensive absences** — Bukari and Abu Fani out means **Strika, Tebo, and Veljković** have to hold the fort against relentless pressure
- **Arnautović's isolation** — the visitors' star striker will be starved of service in a likely rearguard battle
Expected lineups:
- **FC Lugano**: von Ballmoos, Papadopoulos, Delcroix, Mai, Cimignani, Karimov, Dos Santos, Grgić, Bislimi, Behrens, Ajeti
- **FK Crvena zvezda**: Guteša, Strika, Tebo, Veljković, Loizou, Elšnik, Krunić, Ivanić, Katai, Kostov, Arnautović
Prediction:
**Lugano 3-1 Red Star.** Hosts control; visitors nab a consolation on the break. 🔴
Where to watch
Disney+ (AR)ViX
Paramount+
ViX
Disney+ (CHI)ViX
Disney+ (COL)ViX
ViX
SRF zwei
Disney+ DanmarkTV2 Play
ViX
ViX
M+ Liga de Campeones 3
Viaplay
Canal+ Live 15
HBO Max (UK)
ViX
ViX
ViX
ViX
TV2 PlayViaplay
ViX
Disney+ (PER)ViX
ViX
ViX
Disney+ Sverige
ViX
Paramount+ViX
ViX
ViX
Match facts
Stadium
AIL Arena
City
Lugano
Kickoff
15 Oct, 16:45 UTC
Competition
Conference League
Highlights & clips
FC Lugano
3-4-2-1 · 5-4-1
FK Crvena zvezda
16
D. von Ballmoos
6.4
6
A. Papadopoulos
7.1
17
L. Mai
6.5
7
E. Alioski
6.8
↑ 79'
30
D. Moncada
7.6
↑ 73'
25
U. Bislimi
6.9
8
A. Grgić
7.1
21
Y. Cimignani
6.6
24
E. Pihlstrom
6.6
↑ 63'
22
B. Castro
6.9
↑ 79'
91
K. Behrens
7.2
↑ 63'
1
Matheus
7.2
27
M. Strika
6.0
↑ 75'
60
M. Gaštarov
6.8
45
S. Gudelj
5.8
3
Y. Nakayama
7.0
8
K. Balov
6.4
↑ 75'
21
T. M. Elšnik
7.4
6
M. Bajo
5.6
↑ 81'
70
M. Cham-Saračević
7.5
↑ 64'
22
V. Kostov
6.5
7
M. Arnautović
6.4
↑ 81'
Substitutes
99GD. Mina
28GF. Gebhardt
2DB. Karimov↓ 73'6.6
3DH. Delcroix↓ 79'6.5
4DD. Kelvin
26DM. Marques
27MD. Dos Santos↓ 79'6.6
14MA. Kendouci
9FA. Ajeti↓ 63'7.5
11FR. Steffen↓ 63'6.9
Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti
Top stats
41%Possession59%
2.29Expected goals (xG)1.23
18Total shots20
5Shots on target5
4Big chances2
5Corners3
Shots
7Shots off target11
6Blocked shots4
8Shots inside box7
10Shots outside box13
3Big chances scored0
1Big chances missed2
-0.81Goals prevented-0.12
Attack
14Touches in box16
41Final third entries53
2Offsides0
10Free kicks9
3Fouled in final third3
Passing
384Passes545
329Accurate passes491
15/38 (39%)Long balls23/41 (56%)
1/12 (8%)Crosses5/16 (31%)
14Throw-ins10
Duels
49Duels51
37/69 (54%)Ground duels32/69 (46%)
7/20 (35%)Aerial duels13/20 (65%)
8/14 (57%)Dribbles8/15 (53%)
10Dispossessed11
Defending
18Tackles16
67Tackles won50
5Interceptions6
20Clearances18
48Recoveries49
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
2Big saves1
9Goal kicks10
0Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
Who winsLugano to win (DNB) 71% · 1.73 @ 888Sport
BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.80 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 57% · 3.80 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.87 @ 1xBet
1X2Crvena zvezda to win 34% · 3.00 @ William Hill
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 67% · 1.39 @ 1xBet
1X2Draw 26% · 2.61 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 55% · 1.72 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 56% · 1.66 @ Pinnacle
1X2Lugano to win 40% · 2.62 @ William Hill
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 65% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.30
FC Lugano
3.60
Draw
2.83
FK Crvena zvezda
Double Chanceconsensus
1.40
FC Lugano or Draw
1.29
FC Lugano or FK Crvena zvezda
1.57
Draw or FK Crvena zvezda
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.53
Yes
2.35
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.60
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
5.50
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
14.10
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.19
Over 1.50
4.45
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.66
Over 2.50
2.20
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.59
Over 3.50
1.46
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.94
Over 4.50
1.15
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.70
FC Lugano
2.05
FK Crvena zvezda
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.33
Over 7.50
3.00
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.63
Over 8.50
2.17
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.05
Over 9.50
1.71
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.70
Over 10.50
1.39
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.70
Over 11.50
1.20
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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