Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Mariehamn host Ilves in a dead-heat showdown** — both teams are 3-2 over their last five, and this clash could shake up the Veikkausliiga table 🔥
Form-wise, Ilves look more clinical: three consecutive wins with back-to-back 3-goal hauls against TPS and Lahti. Mariehamn have kept it tight at home (1-0 vs TPS) but stumbled away. The h2h leans Ilves over the long run, but Mariehamn's home record gives them footing here.
Key storylines:
- **Ilves' attack vs Mariehamn's defensive shape** — Ilves have been ruthless in their recent run; can **Koivisto** and the home backline hold the line?
- **Set-piece battle** — tight matches often turn on transitions; both teams will hunt for edges in dead-ball situations
- **Midfield control** — **Popovitch** and **Ala-Myllymäki** anchoring Ilves' build-up; Mariehamn lean on **Patut** and **van den Heyden** to disrupt
Expected lineups:
- **IFK Mariehamn**: Lund, Soiniemi, Koivisto, Nurmi, Richtner, Patut, van den Heyden, Stroud, Andersson, Jakobsen, Huttunen
- **Ilves**: Krkalić, Rale, Miettunen, Kumpu, Wallius, Popovitch, Ala-Myllymäki, Multala, Kilo, Hytönen, Baranov
Prediction:
**1-2 Ilves**. Slight edge to the visitors — their scoring spree continues, though Mariehamn nick one at home.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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