AC Oulu 3-4 HJK: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 12, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. AC Oulu 3-4 HJK.

90+4'

J. Mäkeläinen

Yellow card for J. Mäkeläinen (AC Oulu) for foul.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

90'

AC Oulu

Corner, AC Oulu.

89'

P. Mentu

Substitution, HJK: M. Guèye comes on for P. Mentu.

89'

S. Haarala

Substitution, HJK: K. Simojoki comes on for S. Haarala.

88'

M. Borchers

Attempt missed. M. Borchers (HJK), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

86'

S. Haarala

Attempt saved. S. Haarala (HJK), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

86'

J. Veteli

Goal! AC Oulu 3-4 HJK. J. Veteli (HJK) scores.

84'

M. Pitkanen

Goal! AC Oulu 3-3 HJK. M. Pitkanen (AC Oulu) scores, assisted by R. Karjalainen.

84'

J. Mäkeläinen

Attempt saved. J. Mäkeläinen (AC Oulu), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

84'

AC Oulu

Corner, AC Oulu.

81'

J. Mäkeläinen

Attempt missed. J. Mäkeläinen (AC Oulu), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.

80'

L. Ghezali

Yellow card for L. Ghezali (AC Oulu) for foul.

79'

M. Pitkanen

Yellow card for M. Pitkanen (AC Oulu) for foul.

78'

S. Haarala

Attempt missed. S. Haarala (HJK), left-footed shot. xG 0.68.

77'

R. Riski

Goal! AC Oulu 2-3 HJK. R. Riski (AC Oulu) scores, assisted by R. Karjalainen.

75'

O. Kemppainen

Substitution, AC Oulu: A. Cassama comes on for O. Kemppainen.

75'

M. Arsalo

Substitution, AC Oulu: J. Mäkeläinen comes on for M. Arsalo.

75'

C. Triana

Substitution, AC Oulu: R. Riski comes on for C. Triana.

73'

S. Haarala

Attempt blocked. S. Haarala (HJK), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

73'

HJK

Corner, HJK.

71'

A. Cicale

Attempt missed. A. Cicale (HJK), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

70'

HJK

Corner, HJK.

69'

HJK

Corner, HJK.

68'

L. Möller

Substitution, HJK: J. Veteli comes on for L. Möller.

64'

M. Borchers

Goal! AC Oulu 1-3 HJK. M. Borchers (HJK) scores, assisted by L. Montano.

59'

AC Oulu

Corner, AC Oulu.

59'

M. Arsalo

Attempt blocked. M. Arsalo (AC Oulu), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

58'

AC Oulu

Corner, AC Oulu.

55'

J. Lotvonen

Substitution, AC Oulu: L. Ghezali comes on for J. Lotvonen.

54'

HJK

Offside, HJK.

53'

T. Kaukua

Yellow card for T. Kaukua (AC Oulu) for foul.

48'

C. Triana

Goal! AC Oulu 1-2 HJK. C. Triana (AC Oulu) scores, assisted by E. Kallio.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. AC Oulu 0-2 HJK.

45'

M. Arsalo

Attempt missed. M. Arsalo (AC Oulu), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

44'

E. Kallio

Attempt blocked. E. Kallio (AC Oulu), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

41'

L. Möller

Goal! AC Oulu 0-2 HJK. L. Möller (HJK) scores, assisted by M. Borchers.

39'

M. Borchers

Attempt missed. M. Borchers (HJK), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

36'

AC Oulu

Corner, AC Oulu.

36'

M. Pitkanen

Attempt missed. M. Pitkanen (AC Oulu), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

36'

E. Kallio

Attempt blocked. E. Kallio (AC Oulu), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

35'

AC Oulu

Corner, AC Oulu.

34'

AC Oulu

Offside, AC Oulu.

34'

T. Kaukua

Attempt missed. T. Kaukua (AC Oulu), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

31'

P. Mentu

Attempt missed. P. Mentu (HJK), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

30'

C. Triana

Attempt blocked. C. Triana (AC Oulu), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

28'

L. Möller

Attempt missed. L. Möller (HJK), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

27'

A. Cicale

Attempt blocked. A. Cicale (HJK), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

22'

HJK

Corner, HJK.

20'

M. Borchers

Goal! AC Oulu 0-1 HJK. M. Borchers (HJK) scores, assisted by L. Montano.

18'

HJK

Corner, HJK.

16'

M. Borchers

Attempt missed. M. Borchers (HJK), left-footed shot. xG 0.12.

15'

L. Möller

Attempt missed. L. Möller (HJK), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

14'

AC Oulu

Offside, AC Oulu.

12'

HJK

Corner, HJK.

11'

L. Möller

Attempt blocked. L. Möller (HJK), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

9'

I. Mendolin

Attempt missed. I. Mendolin (AC Oulu), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

8'

S. Haarala

Attempt missed. S. Haarala (HJK), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

7'

AC Oulu

Offside, AC Oulu.

3'

L. Möller

Attempt missed. L. Möller (HJK), left-footed shot. xG 0.10.

1'

R. Karjalainen

Attempt missed. R. Karjalainen (AC Oulu), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

1'

Kick-off: AC Oulu vs HJK.

Where the money is

138670 EUR matched · captured 1 month ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 72987 EUR · live

Away 1.01 · implied 99.0%

89.0%

-10.0 vs price

Draw 19.5 · implied 5.1%

6.8%

+1.7 vs price

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

4.3%

+4.2 vs price

Half time 652 EUR · live

Away 1.16 · implied 86.2%

77.7%

-8.5 vs price

Draw 7.4 · implied 13.5%

14.6%

+1.1 vs price

Home 6.6 · implied 15.2%

7.5%

-7.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 10503 EUR · live

Over 1.22 · implied 82.0%

61.9%

-20.1 vs price

Under 5.3 · implied 18.9%

38.4%

+19.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 2807 EUR · live

Under 1.14 · implied 87.7%

98.2%

+10.5 vs price

Over 7.0 · implied 14.3%

1.8%

-12.5 vs price

15 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 7 clips

Player of the match

Match events

20' ⚽ M. Borchers · assist L. Montano0–1

41' ⚽ L. Möller · assist M. Borchers0–2

Half-time · 0–2

48' ⚽ C. Triana · assist E. Kallio1–2

53' T. Kaukua · Foul

55' 🔁 L. Ghezali ◂ J. Lotvonen

64' ⚽ M. Borchers · assist L. Montano1–3

68' 🔁 J. Veteli ◂ L. Möller

75' 🔁 R. Riski ◂ C. Triana

75' 🔁 J. Mäkeläinen ◂ M. Arsalo

75' 🔁 A. Cassama ◂ O. Kemppainen

77' ⚽ R. Riski · assist R. Karjalainen2–3

79' M. Pitkanen · Foul

80' L. Ghezali · Foul

84' ⚽ M. Pitkanen · assist R. Karjalainen3–3

86' ⚽ J. Veteli3–4

89' 🔁 K. Simojoki ◂ S. Haarala

89' 🔁 M. Guèye ◂ P. Mentu

Full-time · 3–4

90'⁺⁴ J. Mäkeläinen · Foul

Coaches

Mikko Isokangas

Joonas Rantanen

Recent form

AC Oulu

WAKuopion Palloseura1-0

LHInter Turku0-1

LHIF Gnistan1-2

LAVPS0-1

DHSJK0-0

HJK

WHVPS6-0

DAIF Gnistan1-1

DAKuopion Palloseura0-0

WHInter Turku2-1

LAInter Turku0-1

About this match

**HJK roll into Oulu as the heavy favorites**, riding a dominant 6-0 hammering of VPS and a strong recent run. AC Oulu are in the muck after back-to-back home losses and will be scrappy about it. 📊

Oulu have won just one of their last five, but that scalp came away at Kuopion — so they've got a bit of fight left. HJK are the team to beat right now: two wins, two draws, and they've historically owned this fixture (8 wins in the last 15 H2H). The hosts need to dig deep.

Key storylines:

- **HJK's attack** has found another gear lately, especially after that 6-0 demolition; **M. Borchers** and **Martin Kirilov** will be looking to punish Oulu's shaky defense
- **AC Oulu's home form** is dodgy (0-2-1 in recent games at Raatti), but they've shown they can nick a win away — expect a compact, counter-focused setup
- **Set pieces and pressing** will be critical; HJK's rhythm can be disrupted if Oulu stay organized

Expected lineups:

- **AC Oulu**: M. Santos, J. Pirinen, M. Pitkanen, O. Kemppainen, T. Kaukua, M. Arsalo, E. Kallio, C. Triana, J. Lotvonen, R. Riski, L. Ghezali
- **HJK**: J. Öst, L. Montano, V. Tikkanen, M. Bogićević, N. Alho, L. Lingman, A. Ring, A. Cicale, S. Haarala, Martin Kirilov, M. Borchers

Prediction:

**HJK 2–0 AC Oulu**. The visitors' form and pedigree give them a clear edge. 🔵

Where to watch

OneFootball Deutschland

Match facts

Stadium

Raatti Stadion

City

Oulu

Referee

Antti Munukka

2.91 yellows/match · 35 matches

Kickoff

12 Oct, 16:00 UTC

Competition

Veikkausliiga

Highlights & clips

AC Oulu 4-4-2 · 4-3-3 HJK

13 M. Santos 5.8 18 A. Cassama 6.3 ↑ 75' 5 M. Pitkanen 7.1 66 J. Pirinen 7.1 22 T. Kaukua 6.1 11 L. Ghezali 6.5 ↑ 55' 30 J. Mäkeläinen 6.2 ↑ 75' 21 I. Mendolin 6.9 27 E. Kallio 6.8 9 R. Riski 7.2 ↑ 75' 7 R. Karjalainen 7.7 1 J. Öst 5.9 17 N. Alho 6.8 31 M. Bogićević 6.4 6 V. Tikkanen 6.4 14 L. Montano 7.8 77 J. Veteli 7.2 ↑ 68' 4 A. Ring 7.4 13 K. Simojoki ↑ 89' 32 M. Guèye ↑ 89' 9 M. Borchers 9.5 7 A. Cicale 7.4

Substitutes

99GK. Schulz 16DO. Kemppainen↓ 75'5.9 2DS. Sipola 3DA. Lietsa 36MJ. Lotvonen↓ 55'6.4 25MM. Arsalo↓ 75'6.4 19MJ. Omotayo 14MN. Jokelainen 10FC. Triana↓ 75'7.4

Coach: Mikko Isokangas

Substitutes

30GJ. Samooja 24DE. Leveälahti 8MP. Mentu↓ 89'7.7 22ML. Möller↓ 68'7.3 10ML. Lingman 11MMartin Kirilov 87MN. Kroupkin 29FS. Haarala↓ 89'6.0 20FT. Pukki

Coach: Joonas Rantanen

Top stats

42%Possession58%

1.56Expected goals (xG, estimated)2.67

14Total shots18

4Shots on target6

2Big chances5

6Corners6

Shots

6Shots off target10

4Blocked shots2

10Shots inside box12

4Shots outside box6

2Big chances scored4

0Big chances missed1

Attack

24Touches in box39

37Final third entries50

3Offsides2

7Free kicks12

2Fouled in final third3

Passing

346Passes501

292Accurate passes430

15/34 (44%)Long balls24/47 (51%)

6/26 (23%)Crosses5/20 (25%)

15Throw-ins19

Duels

48Duels52

24/50 (48%)Ground duels26/50 (52%)

8/17 (47%)Aerial duels9/17 (53%)

4/11 (36%)Dribbles3/10 (30%)

5Dispossessed6

Defending

13Tackles12

54Tackles won58

7Interceptions5

22Clearances29

41Recoveries43

Discipline

12Fouls7

4Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0Big saves1

11Goal kicks6

2Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Oulu 22%

24%

HJK 54%

Who winsHJK to win (DNB) 67% · 1.31 @ Betano

1X2HJK to win 54% · 2.10 @ William Hill

CornersOver 9.5 corners 50% · 1.93 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 62% · 1.53 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 55% · 3.90 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 55% · 3.25 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 77% · 1.91 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 24% · 2.68 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 69% · 1.45 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 61% · 1.52 @ Pinnacle

1X2Oulu to win 22% · 4.24 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

4.20

AC Oulu

3.77

Draw

1.71

HJK

Double Chanceconsensus

2.02

AC Oulu or Draw

1.20

AC Oulu or HJK

1.20

Draw or HJK

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.69

Yes

2.05

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

8.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

3.20

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

12.90

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.21

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.67

Over 2.50

2.10

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.77

Over 3.50

1.40

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.19

Over 4.50

1.13

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

3.30

AC Oulu

1.29

HJK

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.28

Over 7.50

3.20

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.52

Over 8.50

2.37

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.90

Over 9.50

1.85

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.38

Over 10.50

1.52

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.00

Over 11.50

1.31

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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