Urawa Red Diamonds 3-2 RB Omiya Ardija: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Urawa Red Diamonds 3-2 RB Omiya Ardija.

90+5'

H. Minamino

Attempt missed. H. Minamino (Urawa Red Diamonds), right-footed shot. xG 0.16.

86'

R. Motegi

Yellow card for R. Motegi (RB Omiya Ardija).

85'

A. Onaiwu

Attempt missed. A. Onaiwu (Urawa Red Diamonds), left-footed shot. xG 0.23.

83'

Caprini

Attempt blocked. Caprini (RB Omiya Ardija), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

82'

T. Izumi

Goal! Urawa Red Diamonds 3-2 RB Omiya Ardija. T. Izumi (RB Omiya Ardija) scores.

80'

R. Hidano

Substitution, Urawa Red Diamonds: K. Nemoto comes on for R. Hidano.

80'

S. Gustafson

Substitution, Urawa Red Diamonds: H. Minamino comes on for S. Gustafson.

79'

A. Onaiwu

Goal! Urawa Red Diamonds 3-1 RB Omiya Ardija. A. Onaiwu (Urawa Red Diamonds) scores.

78'

R. Watanabe

Attempt missed. R. Watanabe (Urawa Red Diamonds), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.05.

78'

Y. Toyokawa

Substitution, RB Omiya Ardija: Caprini comes on for Y. Toyokawa.

78'

J. McGhee

Substitution, RB Omiya Ardija: T. Izumi comes on for J. McGhee.

71'

H. Komori

Attempt missed. H. Komori (Urawa Red Diamonds), right-footed shot. xG 0.20.

71'

S. Sasa

Substitution, Urawa Red Diamonds: H. Ueki comes on for S. Sasa.

71'

H. Komori

Substitution, Urawa Red Diamonds: M. Sávio comes on for H. Komori.

69'

K. Sugimoto

Attempt missed. K. Sugimoto (RB Omiya Ardija), header. xG 0.24.

64'

Y. Kobayashi

Goal! Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 RB Omiya Ardija. Y. Kobayashi (RB Omiya Ardija) scores.

62'

R. Hidano

Goal! Urawa Red Diamonds 2-0 RB Omiya Ardija. R. Hidano (Urawa Red Diamonds) scores.

61'

G. França

Substitution, RB Omiya Ardija: R. Nishio comes on for G. França.

61'

K. Diniz

Substitution, RB Omiya Ardija: G. Kato comes on for K. Diniz.

60'

S. Sasa

Goal! Urawa Red Diamonds 1-0 RB Omiya Ardija. S. Sasa (Urawa Red Diamonds) scores.

59'

K. Sunao

Yellow card for K. Sunao (RB Omiya Ardija).

58'

G. França

Attempt saved. G. França (RB Omiya Ardija), header from a set piece. xG 0.02.

56'

K. Sugimoto

Attempt missed. K. Sugimoto (RB Omiya Ardija), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

54'

A. Onaiwu

Attempt saved. A. Onaiwu (Urawa Red Diamonds), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

48'

S. Sasa

Attempt saved. S. Sasa (Urawa Red Diamonds), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

48'

R. Watanabe

Attempt missed. R. Watanabe (Urawa Red Diamonds), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

48'

K. Diniz

Yellow card for K. Diniz (RB Omiya Ardija).

46'

H. Kato

Substitution, RB Omiya Ardija: R. Motegi comes on for H. Kato.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Urawa Red Diamonds 0-0 RB Omiya Ardija.

45'

Y. Toyokawa

Attempt blocked. Y. Toyokawa (RB Omiya Ardija), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.23.

39'

R. Hidano

Attempt blocked. R. Hidano (Urawa Red Diamonds), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

38'

A. Onaiwu

Attempt missed. A. Onaiwu (Urawa Red Diamonds), right-footed shot. xG 0.23.

36'

A. Onaiwu

Attempt saved. A. Onaiwu (Urawa Red Diamonds), header. xG 0.36.

30'

R. Hidano

Attempt missed. R. Hidano (Urawa Red Diamonds), right-footed shot. xG 0.24.

24'

K. Kudo

Yellow card for K. Kudo (Urawa Red Diamonds).

22'

E. Katayama

Substitution, Urawa Red Diamonds: K. Hayashi comes on for E. Katayama.

15'

Y. Naganuma

Attempt blocked. Y. Naganuma (Urawa Red Diamonds), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.01.

9'

R. Watanabe

Attempt blocked. R. Watanabe (Urawa Red Diamonds), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

5'

Y. Kobayashi

Attempt blocked. Y. Kobayashi (RB Omiya Ardija), header. xG 0.17.

5'

J. McGhee

Attempt blocked. J. McGhee (RB Omiya Ardija), right-footed shot. xG 0.23.

1'

Kick-off: Urawa Red Diamonds vs RB Omiya Ardija.

Where the money is

212425 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks, 2 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 92703 EUR · live

Home 1.02 · implied 98.0%

87.2%

-10.8 vs price

Draw 14.0 · implied 7.1%

10.4%

+3.2 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

3.9%

+3.8 vs price

Half time 857 EUR · live

Home 3.2 · implied 31.2%

50.7%

+19.4 vs price

Draw 2.12 · implied 47.2%

48.4%

+1.3 vs price

Away 6.8 · implied 14.7%

0.8%

-13.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 23821 EUR · live

Under 2.94 · implied 34.0%

54.7%

+20.6 vs price

Over 1.53 · implied 65.4%

45.3%

-20.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 1426 EUR · live

Under 1.04 · implied 96.2%

86.1%

-10.1 vs price

Over 10.0 · implied 10.0%

13.8%

+3.8 vs price

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Match events

22' 🔁 K. Hayashi ◂ E. Katayama

24' K. Kudo

Half-time · 0–0

46' 🔁 R. Motegi ◂ H. Kato

48' K. Diniz

59' K. Sunao

60' ⚽ S. Sasa1–0

61' 🔁 G. Kato ◂ K. Diniz

61' 🔁 R. Nishio ◂ G. França

62' ⚽ R. Hidano2–0

64' ⚽ Y. Kobayashi2–1

71' 🔁 M. Sávio ◂ H. Komori

71' 🔁 H. Ueki ◂ S. Sasa

78' 🔁 T. Izumi ◂ J. McGhee

78' 🔁 Caprini ◂ Y. Toyokawa

79' ⚽ A. Onaiwu3–1

80' 🔁 H. Minamino ◂ S. Gustafson

80' 🔁 K. Nemoto ◂ R. Hidano

82' ⚽ T. Izumi3–2

86' R. Motegi

Full-time · 3–2

Coaches

Gwi-jae Jo

Narcis Pelach

Recent form

Urawa Red Diamonds

WHTokyo Verdy3-1

LHFagiano Okayama1-2

WAKashima Antlers1-0

WAAvispa Fukuoka3-2

WHYokohama F. Marinos3-2

RB Omiya Ardija

WHVanraure Hachinohe2-0

DAUrawa Red Diamonds2-2

LHTsukuba University0-1

LAKyoto Sanga FC0-2

WAFukui United FC3-0

About this match

**Urawa roll into the Cup as form horses, but Omiya's drawing them level twice in recent memory keeps this spicy.** 🔥 The Red Diamonds are flying (4W in last 5), yet their hosts know how to make life awkward — that 2-2 draw just weeks ago says everything.

Urawa's racked up wins against solid opposition, but the Emperor's Cup is a trap tournament. Omiya aren't pushovers either; they've got rhythm and defensive shape.

Key storylines:

- **Urawa's attack** led by **T. Kaneko** and **H. Komori** looks sharp, but **K. Shimura** and the Omiya back line have proven they can hold firm
- **H. Ueki** anchoring Urawa's midfield will be crucial against Omiya's pressing from **T. Izumi** and **G. Kato**
- Historical parity between these sides — 6 wins each in 19 meetings — means cup form trumps league momentum

Expected lineups:

- **Urawa Red Diamonds**: S. Nishikawa, Y. Naganuma, Y. Miyamoto, D. Boza, M. Yamane, H. Ueki, K. Hayashi, K. Yasui, T. Kaneko, H. Komori
- **RB Omiya Ardija**: K. Shimura, R. Motegi, M. Kojima, K. Sekiguchi, Y. Murakami, T. Izumi, G. Kato, K. Nakayama, Caprini, H. Hidaka

Prediction:

**Urawa 2–1 Omiya.** Form carries the day, but it'll need an extra gear to break through a familiar rival. 📍

Match facts

Kickoff

07 Oct, 09:00 UTC

Competition

Emperor Cup

Urawa Red Diamonds 3-4-2-1 · 4-1-2-3 RB Omiya Ardija

23 K. Fukui 18 K. Hayashi ↑ 22' 3 D. Boza 15 K. Kudo 10 M. Sávio ↑ 71' 5 K. Nemoto ↑ 80' 13 R. Watanabe 88 Y. Naganuma 42 H. Minamino ↑ 80' 37 H. Ueki ↑ 71' 45 A. Onaiwu ⚽1 50 M. Wakabayashi 44 K. Sunao 88 R. Nishio ↑ 61' 13 O. Iyoha 22 R. Motegi ↑ 46' 15 K. Nakayama 16 G. Kato ↑ 61' 23 K. Sugimoto 77 Y. Kobayashi ⚽1 11 Caprini ↑ 78' 14 T. Izumi ↑ 78'

Substitutes

44GY. Arai 32DE. Katayama↓ 22' 33DS. Sasa↓ 71' 6DM. Yamane 11MS. Gustafson↓ 80' 39MJ. Hayakawa 43MT. Wada 17FH. Komori↓ 71' 36FR. Hidano↓ 80'

Coach: Gwi-jae Jo

Substitutes

1GT. Kasahara 3DH. Kato↓ 46' 5DG. França↓ 61' 46DK. Iseri 8MK. Diniz↓ 61' 10MY. Toyokawa↓ 78' 39MT. Ishikawa 48MR. Sakoda 49FJ. McGhee↓ 78'

Coach: Narcis Pelach

Top stats

57%Possession43%

2.34Expected goals (xG)1.47

6Shots on target4

6Corners1

Shots

9Shots off target4

1Hit woodwork0

Attack

5Offsides0

12Free kicks13

Passing

36Throw-ins19

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

6Goal kicks13

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 19 bookmakers

Urawa Reds 54%

25%

RB Omiya Ardija 21%

Who winsUrawa Reds to win (DNB) 72% · 1.36 @ Bet365

1X2Urawa Reds to win 54% · 2.05 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 55% · 3.90 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 55% · 3.25 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 77% · 2.00 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 25% · 2.62 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 67% · 1.43 @ Pinnacle

1X2RB Omiya Ardija to win 21% · 4.42 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.67

Urawa Red Diamonds

3.68

Draw

4.33

RB Omiya Ardija

Double Chanceconsensus

1.17

Urawa Red Diamonds or Draw

1.21

Urawa Red Diamonds or RB Omiya Ardija

2.04

Draw or RB Omiya Ardija

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.65

Yes

2.10

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.10

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

7.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.03

Over 0.50

11.45

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.10

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.69

Over 2.50

2.07

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.81

Over 3.50

1.40

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.28

Over 4.50

1.14

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.29

Urawa Red Diamonds

3.25

RB Omiya Ardija

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.21

Over 7.50

3.56

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.44

Over 8.50

2.50

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.77

Over 9.50

1.96

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.20

Over 10.50

1.60

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.94

Over 11.50

1.32

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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