Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 V-Varen Nagasaki: Stats & xG

Commentary

120'

End of extra time. Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 V-Varen Nagasaki.

118'

Y. Ryogo

Attempt missed. Y. Ryogo (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.50.

116'

M. Yumiba

Goal! Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 V-Varen Nagasaki. M. Yumiba (Shimizu S-Pulse) scores.

113'

Y. Takahashi

Attempt saved. Y. Takahashi (Shimizu S-Pulse), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.00.

113'

Y. Shimamoto

Attempt missed. Y. Shimamoto (Shimizu S-Pulse), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

110'

K. Yasuda

Attempt missed. K. Yasuda (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

108'

H. Sugai

Yellow card for H. Sugai (Shimizu S-Pulse).

106'

D. Pituca

Attempt blocked. D. Pituca (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.12.

106'

A. Ikki

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: S. Ryosuke comes on for A. Ikki.

105'

O. Hijiri

Attempt missed. O. Hijiri (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

101'

Dieguinho

Substitution, Shimizu S-Pulse: K. Kozuka comes on for Dieguinho.

99'

K. Kosuke

Attempt blocked. K. Kosuke (Shimizu S-Pulse), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

96'

T. Fujii

Attempt missed. T. Fujii (Shimizu S-Pulse), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

91'

Y. Shunya

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: I. Yuto comes on for Y. Shunya.

91'

Extra time begins.

90'

Full-time. Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki.

87'

K. Yasuda

Attempt missed. K. Yasuda (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

87'

R. Yamada

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: H. Nabeshima comes on for R. Yamada.

86'

K. Yasuda

Attempt saved. K. Yasuda (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.12.

83'

T. Fujii

Attempt blocked. T. Fujii (Shimizu S-Pulse), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

79'

R. Germain

Substitution, Shimizu S-Pulse: K. Kosuke comes on for R. Germain.

79'

M. Brunetti

Substitution, Shimizu S-Pulse: Y. Honda comes on for M. Brunetti.

76'

Dieguinho

Attempt blocked. Dieguinho (Shimizu S-Pulse), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

75'

R. Germain

Attempt blocked. R. Germain (Shimizu S-Pulse), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

70'

M. Brunetti

Yellow card for M. Brunetti (Shimizu S-Pulse).

67'

T. Matsumoto

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: K. Yasuda comes on for T. Matsumoto.

67'

Y. Hotaru

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: D. Pituca comes on for Y. Hotaru.

66'

K. Matsuzaki

Attempt blocked. K. Matsuzaki (Shimizu S-Pulse), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.07.

65'

K. Kitagawa

Substitution, Shimizu S-Pulse: Y. Shimamoto comes on for K. Kitagawa.

65'

K. Inoue

Substitution, Shimizu S-Pulse: T. Fujii comes on for K. Inoue.

50'

R. Germain

Yellow card for R. Germain (Shimizu S-Pulse).

46'

T. Santana

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: Y. Ryogo comes on for T. Santana.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki.

45+2'

K. Matsuzaki

Attempt missed. K. Matsuzaki (Shimizu S-Pulse), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.19.

44'

R. Germain

Attempt missed. R. Germain (Shimizu S-Pulse), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

38'

T. Santana

Goal! Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki. T. Santana (V-Varen Nagasaki) scores.

32'

Dieguinho

Attempt missed. Dieguinho (Shimizu S-Pulse), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.00.

27'

Y. Egawa

Yellow card for Y. Egawa (V-Varen Nagasaki).

21'

M. Yumiba

Attempt missed. M. Yumiba (Shimizu S-Pulse), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.

13'

K. Kitagawa

Goal! Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki. K. Kitagawa (Shimizu S-Pulse) scores.

10'

D. J. Won

Substitution, Shimizu S-Pulse: Dieguinho comes on for D. J. Won.

1'

Kick-off: Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki.

Where the money is

106302 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks, 2 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 55722 EUR · live

Home 9.8 · implied 10.2%

47.6%

+37.4 vs price

Draw 1.05 · implied 95.2%

38.6%

-56.6 vs price

Away 21.0 · implied 4.8%

17.3%

+12.5 vs price

Half time 793 EUR · live

Draw 6.8 · implied 14.7%

48.7%

+34.0 vs price

Away 30.0 · implied 3.3%

34.9%

+31.6 vs price

Home 1.19 · implied 84.0%

16.1%

-67.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 15285 EUR · live

Over 11.5 · implied 8.7%

60.5%

+51.8 vs price

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

42.4%

-56.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 2968 EUR · live

Under 1.11 · implied 90.1%

95.3%

+5.2 vs price

Over 9.2 · implied 10.9%

4.7%

-6.2 vs price

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Match events

10' 🔁 Dieguinho ◂ D. J. Won

13' ⚽ K. Kitagawa1–0

27' Y. Egawa

38' ⚽ T. Santana1–1

Half-time · 1–1

46' 🔁 Y. Ryogo ◂ T. Santana

50' R. Germain

65' 🔁 T. Fujii ◂ K. Inoue

65' 🔁 Y. Shimamoto ◂ K. Kitagawa

67' 🔁 D. Pituca ◂ Y. Hotaru

67' 🔁 K. Yasuda ◂ T. Matsumoto

70' M. Brunetti

79' 🔁 Y. Honda ◂ M. Brunetti

79' 🔁 K. Kosuke ◂ R. Germain

87' 🔁 H. Nabeshima ◂ R. Yamada

Full-time · 1–1

91' 🔁 I. Yuto ◂ Y. Shunya

101' 🔁 K. Kozuka ◂ Dieguinho

106' 🔁 S. Ryosuke ◂ A. Ikki

108' H. Sugai

116' ⚽ M. Yumiba2–1

ET · 2–1

Coaches

Takayuki Yoshida

Takuya Takagi

Recent form

Shimizu S-Pulse

WHJEF United Chiba2-1

WHAvispa Fukuoka1-0

LAKawasaki Frontale1-3

DHFC Tokyo1-1

LHKashiwa Reysol0-1

V-Varen Nagasaki

DHCerezo Osaka1-1

WHNagoya Grampus2-0

LAVissel Kobe1-3

DHGamba Osaka2-2

LHFC Tokyo0-3

About this match

**Shimizu host Nagasaki in a Cup clash where form tips toward the home side** — S-Pulse have been sharper in recent weeks, though the visitors always bring chaos to these knockout ties. 🔥

Shimizu sit on 2W-1D from their last three, including back-to-back home wins. Nagasaki are more erratic (1W-2D-2L) but showed bite with a 2-0 thrashing of Nagoya, so they're not rolling over.

Key storylines:

- **S-Pulse's home record** has them unbeaten in this run; they'll lean on that advantage against a traveling Nagasaki side
- **Nagasaki's defensive shifts** between solidity and collapses — they need to weather Shimizu's opening intensity
- **Cup momentum** favors the J-League's upper tier, and Shimizu should control possession with **Shimamoto** and **Park** orchestrating midfield

Expected lineups:

- **Shimizu S-Pulse**: T. Umeda, Y. Yoshida, M. Brunetti, H. Sugai, S. Park, Y. Shimamoto, M. Yumiba, Capixaba, R. Germain, K. Matsuzaki
- **V-Varen Nagasaki**: G. Masaaki, Y. Shunya, S. Ryosuke, Y. Egawa, O. Hijiri, A. Ikki, Y. Hotaru, R. Yamada, T. Santana, N. Campbell

Prediction:

**Shimizu S-Pulse 2–1 V-Varen Nagasaki** — home advantage and recent form give the hosts a slight edge in a tight cup tie.

Match facts

Kickoff

07 Oct, 10:00 UTC

Competition

Emperor Cup

Shimizu S-Pulse 4-3-3 · 3-4-2-1 V-Varen Nagasaki

1 Y. Oki 24 H. Sugai 51 J. R. Sumiyoshi 3 Y. Takahashi 15 Y. Honda ↑ 79' 21 K. Matsuzaki 17 M. Yumiba ⚽1 2 Dieguinho ↑ 10' 47 Y. Shimamoto ↑ 65' 19 K. Kosuke ↑ 79' 50 T. Fujii ↑ 65' 1 G. Masaaki 31 K. Doi 50 S. Ryosuke ↑ 106' 6 Y. Egawa 8 I. Yuto ↑ 91' 44 H. Nabeshima ↑ 87' 7 K. Yasuda ↑ 67' 22 O. Hijiri 21 D. Pituca ↑ 67' 41 M. Hasegawa 18 Y. Ryogo ↑ 46'

Substitutes

16GT. Umeda 25DM. Brunetti↓ 79' 28DY. Yoshida 70DS. Takagi 6MD. J. Won↓ 10' 8MK. Inoue↓ 65' 81MK. Kozuka↑ 101' 49FK. Kitagawa↓ 65' 13FR. Germain↓ 79'

Coach: Takayuki Yoshida

Substitutes

13GH. Go 29DA. Ikki↓ 106' 5MY. Hotaru↓ 67' 34MT. Matsumoto↓ 67' 24MR. Yamada↓ 87' 23MY. Shunya↓ 91' 19MS. Takashi 20MN. Keita 9FT. Santana↓ 46'

Coach: Takuya Takagi

Top stats

57%Possession43%

1.66Expected goals (xG)0.98

2Shots on target1

5Corners0

Shots

4Shots off target1

Attack

0Offsides0

13Free kicks13

Passing

14Throw-ins9

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

6Goal kicks12

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Shimizu 43%

28%

Nagasaki 29%

Who winsShimizu to win (DNB) 80% · 1.61 @ Betsson

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 53% · 1.15 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 28% · 2.37 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 69%

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 57%

BTTSBoth teams to score 52% · 3.75 @ Bet365

1X2Nagasaki to win 29% · 3.60 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 55%

1X2Shimizu to win 43% · 2.53 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 69% · 1.29 @ betfair

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 72% · 2.27 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.10

Shimizu S-Pulse

3.25

Draw

3.10

V-Varen Nagasaki

Double Chanceconsensus

1.30

Shimizu S-Pulse or Draw

1.30

Shimizu S-Pulse or V-Varen Nagasaki

1.59

Draw or V-Varen Nagasaki

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.80

Yes

1.92

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.70

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

5.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

8.75

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.33

Over 1.50

3.20

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.02

Over 2.50

1.74

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.60

Over 3.50

1.25

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

7.50

Over 4.50

1.07

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.56

Shimizu S-Pulse

2.25

V-Varen Nagasaki

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

2.80

Shimizu S-Pulse

2.10

Draw

4.00

V-Varen Nagasaki

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

2.50

Shimizu S-Pulse

2.34

Draw

3.50

V-Varen Nagasaki

Both Teams to Score (1st Half)consensus

4.75

Yes

1.16

No

Both Teams to Score (2nd Half)consensus

3.48

Yes

1.25

No

Total Goals (1st Half) 0.50consensus

1.40

Over 0.50

2.80

Under 0.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Shimizu S-Pulse to avoid defeat

✓

80% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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