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Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe
Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional
Independiente Santa Fe
Atlético Nacional
Independiente Santa Fe
Atlético Nacional
Lucas González
Atlético Nacional
Independiente Santa Fe
Atlético Nacional
4-4-2 · 4-4-2
Independiente Santa Fe
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Atlético Nacional 2-0 Independiente Santa Fe.
90'
3 minutes of added time.
89'
Independiente Santa Fe
Offside, Independiente Santa Fe.
89'
Independiente Santa Fe
Offside, Independiente Santa Fe.
53'
Attempt missed. K. Toscano (Independiente Santa Fe), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.
53'
Independiente Santa Fe
Corner, Independiente Santa Fe.
52'
Attempt saved. E. Olivera (Independiente Santa Fe), header from a set piece. xG 0.02.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Atlético Nacional 2-0 Independiente Santa Fe.
45'
2 minutes of added time.
41'
Independiente Santa Fe
Offside, Independiente Santa Fe.
40'
Independiente Santa Fe
Corner, Independiente Santa Fe.
37'
Atlético Nacional
Offside, Atlético Nacional.
37'
Atlético Nacional
Offside, Atlético Nacional.
34'
Attempt missed. H. Rodallega (Independiente Santa Fe), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.10.
34'
Independiente Santa Fe
Corner, Independiente Santa Fe.
24'
Goal! Atlético Nacional 1-0 Independiente Santa Fe. E. Cabrera (Atlético Nacional) scores, assisted by A. Sarmiento.
19'
Atlético Nacional
Offside, Atlético Nacional.
11'
Independiente Santa Fe
Offside, Independiente Santa Fe.
4'
Attempt missed. A. Sarmiento (Atlético Nacional), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.08.
4'
Atlético Nacional
Corner, Atlético Nacional.
1'
Kick-off: Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
59513 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
73.2%
-25.8 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
13.6%
+13.5 vs price
Draw
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
13.3%
+13.2 vs price
Half time
21 EUR
Home
2.02 · implied 49.5%
100.0%
+50.5 vs price
Away
6.6 · implied 15.2%
72.6%
+57.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
73475 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
71.1%
-28.0 vs price
Over
11.0 · implied 9.1%
29.7%
+20.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
44 EUR
Under
1.22 · implied 82.0%
64.9%
-17.1 vs price
Over
5.4 · implied 18.5%
35.2%
+16.6 vs price
15 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 4 clips
Player of the match
Match events
16'
K. Toscano · Foul
22'
V. Moreno · Foul
24'
⚽
E. Cabrera · assist A. Sarmiento1–0
28'
⚽
E. Olivera2–0
38'
A. Román · Foul
Half-time · 2–0
58'
🔁
F. Fagúndez ◂ A. Zapata
58'
🔁
D. Torres ◂ K. Toscano
58'
🔁
J. Obrian ◂ M. Puerta
63'
🔁
E. Benitez ◂ A. Sarmiento
63'
🔁
N. Rodríguez ◂ J. Rodríguez
68'
🔁
O. Fernández ◂ M. Lovera
69'
J. Obrian · Foul
71'
F. Marin · Foul
74'
🔁
M. Casco ◂ S. Velásquez
74'
🔁
J. Zapata ◂ E. Cabrera
80'
🔁
J. Escorcia ◂ J. M. Rengifo
82'
F. Fagúndez · Foul
82'
🔁
E. Murillo Renteria ◂ J. Torres
84'
E. Benitez · Simulation
Full-time · 2–0
Coaches
Lucas GonzálezPablo Repetto 
Recent form
Atlético NacionalWHIndependiente Medellín2-1
WHDeportivo Pasto3-0
LACúcuta Deportivo0-1
WABoyacá Chicó FC4-1
WHIndependiente Medellín3-2
Independiente Santa FeWHAtlético Bucaramanga2-1
WHJaguares de Córdoba2-1
LALlaneros FC0-1
DHFortaleza FC2-2
WAIndependiente Medellín1-0
About this match
**Atlético Nacional are on a tear, and they've got home advantage to prove why they own this rivalry.** Santa Fe's visiting a buzzing Medellin side that's won four of five — and historically, this matchup has been painted red and white more often than not. 🔴
Nacional's domestic dominance at the Atanasio is hard to ignore, while Santa Fe is battle-hardened but dealing with serious injury depth. Both squads have defensive reinforcements ready, but the momentum arrow points sharply upward for the hosts.
Key storylines:
- **C. Arango and F. Fagúndez** lead the attack — two clinical strikers ready to pounce on set-piece chaos
- **E. Cardona pulling strings** in Nacional's midfield versus **D. Torres anchoring** Santa Fe's engine
- **Home-field heat**: Nacional's 80-game fortress at the Atanasio rarely breaks — and Santa Fe arrive patched up at the back
Expected lineups:
- **Atlético Nacional**: F. Armani, A. Román, C. Haydar, M. Casco, W. Tesillo, E. Cabrera, F. Marin, K. Parra, E. Cardona, Y. Perlaza, C. Arango
- **Independiente Santa Fe**: W. Asprilla, J. Angulo, H. Palacios, E. Olivera, I. Scarpeta, D. Torres, J. Torres, K. Toscano, A. Zapata, F. Fagúndez, J. Obrian
Prediction:
**Nacional 2–1 Santa Fe.** The hosts' form and fortress mentality at home give them the edge. 💪
Where to watch
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Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
City
Medellin
Kickoff
30 Oct, 01:30 UTC
Competition
Categoría Primera A
Highlights & clips
Atlético Nacional
4-4-2 · 4-4-2
Independiente Santa Fe
34
F. Armani
6.8
6
A. Román
6.9
15
A. Reyes
7.4
16
W. Tesillo
7.2
20
M. Casco
6.7
↑ 74'
80
J. Zapata
6.6
↑ 74'
21
J. Campuzano
7.5
26
F. Marin
7.1
13
N. Rodríguez
6.3
↑ 63'
32
E. Benitez
6.7
↑ 63'
36
J. Escorcia
6.4
↑ 80'
12
W. Asprilla
6.5
13
H. Palacios
6.3
18
E. Olivera
5.8
3
V. Moreno
5.8
16
D. Torres
6.5
↑ 58'
14
L. Palacios
6.4
9
F. Fagúndez
6.8
↑ 58'
21
E. Murillo Renteria
6.6
↑ 82'
77
J. Obrian
6.5
↑ 58'
11
H. Rodallega
6.1
8
O. Fernández
6.5
↑ 68'
Substitutes
25GL. Marquinez
33DS. Velásquez↓ 74'6.7
31DX. Rios
4DC. Haydar
22ME. Cabrera↓ 74'8.1
23MJ. Rodríguez↓ 63'7.1
29MA. Sarmiento↓ 63'6.8
19MJ. M. Rengifo↓ 80'6.6
28MS. Rojas
Coach: Lucas González
Substitutes
31GJ. Espitia
4DM. Puerta↓ 58'6.2
43DJ. Caicedo
15DI. Scarpeta
10MA. Zapata↓ 58'6.6
7MJ. Torres↓ 82'6.5
6MK. Toscano↓ 58'6.3
17FM. Lovera↓ 68'7.0
39FC. Portocarrero
Coach: Pablo Repetto
Top stats
64%Possession36%
0.53Expected goals (xG)0.26
6Total shots6
2Shots on target1
2Big chances0
1Corners3
Shots
2Shots off target3
2Blocked shots2
3Shots inside box2
3Shots outside box4
1Big chances scored0
1Big chances missed0
0.01Goals prevented-1.16
Attack
6Touches in box5
86Final third entries45
4Offsides3
11Free kicks11
2Fouled in final third2
Passing
689Passes364
606Accurate passes291
41/69 (59%)Long balls17/42 (40%)
2/6 (33%)Crosses3/19 (16%)
21Throw-ins13
Duels
46Duels54
19/43 (44%)Ground duels24/43 (56%)
5/9 (56%)Aerial duels4/9 (44%)
2/7 (29%)Dribbles3/6 (50%)
6Dispossessed4
Defending
7Tackles11
57Tackles won55
4Interceptions8
15Clearances9
48Recoveries43
Discipline
11Fouls11
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
8Goal kicks7
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
Who winsAtl. Nacional to win (DNB) 79% · 1.20 @ Betano
1X2Atl. Nacional to win 63% · 1.85 @ 10bet
CornersOver 9.5 corners 50% · 1.83 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 62% · 1.48 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 55% · 4.75 @ 888Sport
BTTSBoth teams to score 53% · 3.50 @ 10bet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 75% · 2.15 @ 888Sport
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 70% · 1.58 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 21% · 2.94 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 61% · 1.73 @ Unibet
1X2Santa Fe to win 15% · 5.83 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.43
Atlético Nacional
4.40
Draw
6.10
Independiente Santa Fe
Double Chanceconsensus
1.10
Atlético Nacional or Draw
1.18
Atlético Nacional or Independiente Santa Fe
2.55
Draw or Independiente Santa Fe
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.66
Yes
2.10
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
2.10
YES
1.67
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
5.25
YES
1.12
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
2.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
9.00
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
10.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.25
Over 1.50
3.50
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.70
Over 2.50
2.10
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.80
Over 3.50
1.36
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.00
Over 4.50
1.12
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.19
Atlético Nacional
4.38
Independiente Santa Fe
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.22
Over 7.50
3.58
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.43
Over 8.50
2.58
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.82
Over 9.50
1.88
Under 9.50
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Atlético Nacional to win or draw
✓
85% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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