Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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**Stockport rolling into the Kassam looking to make it five wins — Oxford's draw machine vs. the form team of the league.** 🔵⚪
Oxford can't buy a loss but also can't seem to break through (three draws in five), while Stockport's been ruthless on the road. That H2H record is making Stockport favorites, though the hosts' home record deserves respect.
Key storylines:
- **Oxford's** inability to convert home chances: 0-0 vs Bradford, 2-1 wins are thin margins
- **Stockport's** away form is scaring everyone — won both recent road trips and dominated the head-to-head
- **J. Cumming** and **L. Ashby-Hammond** will be tested in what could turn into a scrappy midweek affair
Expected lineups:
- **Oxford United**: J. Cumming, C. Brown, M. Helik, B. Spencer, J. Currie, C. Brannagan, S. Dembélé, M. Harris, J. McDonnell, M. Missanga, G. O'Donkor
- **Stockport County**: L. Ashby-Hammond, E. O'Connell, E. Pye, O. Whatmuff, R. Glover, B. Osborn, O. Norwood, L. Bate, K. Wootton, J. Diamond, H. Wood
Prediction:
**Stockport County 1-0 Oxford United**
Stockport's away pedigree and that H2H edge gives them the slight favorite lean — Oxford's defensive solidity should keep it tight, but Stockport's ruthlessness wins midweek. ⚽
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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