FC St. Pauli 2-0 Karlsruher SC: Stats & xG – Oct 11, 2026

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2. Bundesliga ·Sun 11 Oct

FC St. Pauli

2–0

HT 1–0

Full time

Karlsruher SC

Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg · Ref: Lukas Benen

Commentary

90'

Full-time. FC St. Pauli 2-0 Karlsruher SC.

90+5'

B. Hrgota

Attempt saved. B. Hrgota (FC St. Pauli), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

90'

7 minutes of added time.

90'

R. Jones

Attempt saved. R. Jones (FC St. Pauli), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

89'

Karlsruher SC

Corner, Karlsruher SC.

87'

B. Hrgota

Yellow card for B. Hrgota (FC St. Pauli) for foul.

83'

Karlsruher SC

Offside, Karlsruher SC.

82'

L. Ritzka

Substitution, FC St. Pauli: A. Dźwigała comes on for L. Ritzka.

82'

C. Metcalfe

Substitution, FC St. Pauli: B. Hrgota comes on for C. Metcalfe.

80'

D. Zor

Substitution, Karlsruher SC: T. Civeja comes on for D. Zor.

77'

R. Jones

Attempt saved. R. Jones (FC St. Pauli), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

77'

FC St. Pauli

Corner, FC St. Pauli.

76'

L. Egloff

Attempt blocked. L. Egloff (Karlsruher SC), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

76'

D. Zor

Attempt saved. D. Zor (Karlsruher SC), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

74'

M. Franke

Attempt saved. M. Franke (Karlsruher SC), header from a corner. xG 0.08.

74'

Karlsruher SC

Corner, Karlsruher SC.

73'

A. Ceesay

Substitution, FC St. Pauli: R. Jones comes on for A. Ceesay.

73'

M. Rasmussen

Substitution, FC St. Pauli: S. Klein comes on for M. Rasmussen.

71'

S. Fukuda

Attempt saved. S. Fukuda (Karlsruher SC), header. xG 0.12.

70'

V. Bergh

Substitution, Karlsruher SC: J. Ponente comes on for V. Bergh.

70'

S. Trémoulet

Substitution, Karlsruher SC: S. Jung comes on for S. Trémoulet.

70'

L. B. Farhat

Substitution, Karlsruher SC: L. Egloff comes on for L. B. Farhat.

68'

Y. Niang

Substitution, FC St. Pauli: M. Kaars comes on for Y. Niang.

68'

R. P. Pedrosa

Substitution, Karlsruher SC: K. Wiethaup comes on for R. P. Pedrosa.

67'

S. Fukuda

Attempt missed. S. Fukuda (Karlsruher SC), header from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

66'

J. C. Fujita

Attempt missed. J. C. Fujita (FC St. Pauli), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

59'

Karlsruher SC

Corner, Karlsruher SC.

58'

Karlsruher SC

Corner, Karlsruher SC.

58'

V. Bergh

Attempt blocked. V. Bergh (Karlsruher SC), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.04.

58'

Karlsruher SC

Corner, Karlsruher SC.

57'

M. Wanitzek

Attempt missed. M. Wanitzek (Karlsruher SC), right-footed shot. xG 0.67.

55'

D. Zor

Attempt blocked. D. Zor (Karlsruher SC), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

54'

Karlsruher SC

Corner, Karlsruher SC.

54'

S. Fukuda

Attempt saved. S. Fukuda (Karlsruher SC), right-footed shot. xG 0.21.

54'

Karlsruher SC

Corner, Karlsruher SC.

51'

L. Ritzka

Goal! FC St. Pauli 2-0 Karlsruher SC. L. Ritzka (FC St. Pauli) scores, assisted by E. Smith.

48'

M. Wanitzek

Yellow card for M. Wanitzek (Karlsruher SC) for foul.

47'

Karlsruher SC

Corner, Karlsruher SC.

47'

D. Ofli

Attempt blocked. D. Ofli (Karlsruher SC), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

46'

FC St. Pauli

Offside, FC St. Pauli.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. FC St. Pauli 1-0 Karlsruher SC.

45+2'

FC St. Pauli

Corner, FC St. Pauli.

45+1'

C. Metcalfe

Attempt missed. C. Metcalfe (FC St. Pauli), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

45'

E. Smith

Attempt missed. E. Smith (FC St. Pauli), header from a corner. xG 0.02.

44'

C. Metcalfe

Attempt blocked. C. Metcalfe (FC St. Pauli), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

44'

FC St. Pauli

Corner, FC St. Pauli.

38'

FC St. Pauli

Corner, FC St. Pauli.

37'

A. Ceesay

Attempt blocked. A. Ceesay (FC St. Pauli), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

37'

FC St. Pauli

Corner, FC St. Pauli.

34'

S. Trémoulet

Yellow card for S. Trémoulet (Karlsruher SC) for foul.

32'

A. Ceesay

Goal! FC St. Pauli 1-0 Karlsruher SC. A. Ceesay (FC St. Pauli) scores, assisted by C. Metcalfe.

31'

FC St. Pauli

Offside, FC St. Pauli.

28'

FC St. Pauli

Corner, FC St. Pauli.

26'

FC St. Pauli

Offside, FC St. Pauli.

20'

Karlsruher SC

Corner, Karlsruher SC.

17'

FC St. Pauli

Offside, FC St. Pauli.

13'

Y. Niang

Attempt saved. Y. Niang (FC St. Pauli), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.14.

11'

S. Fukuda

Attempt missed. S. Fukuda (Karlsruher SC), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

Y. Niang

Attempt blocked. Y. Niang (FC St. Pauli), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.

L. B. Farhat

Attempt saved. L. B. Farhat (Karlsruher SC), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

L. Ritzka

Attempt missed. L. Ritzka (FC St. Pauli), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

Kick-off: FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC.

Where the money is

413583 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 224234 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

92.8%

-6.2 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

4.5%

+4.4 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

2.7%

+2.6 vs price

Half time 1907 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

49.4%

-49.6 vs price

Draw 9.2 · implied 10.9%

38.6%

+27.7 vs price

Away 8.0 · implied 12.5%

12.0%

-0.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 92833 EUR · live

Under 1.07 · implied 93.5%

74.1%

-19.3 vs price

Over 12.0 · implied 8.3%

25.9%

+17.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 57 EUR

Under 1.22 · implied 82.0%

98.7%

+16.7 vs price

Over

0.0%

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Player of the match

Match events

32' ⚽ A. Ceesay · assist C. Metcalfe1–0

34' S. Trémoulet · Foul

Half-time · 1–0

48' M. Wanitzek · Foul

51' ⚽ L. Ritzka · assist E. Smith2–0

68' 🔁 K. Wiethaup ◂ R. P. Pedrosa

68' 🔁 M. Kaars ◂ Y. Niang

70' 🔁 L. Egloff ◂ L. B. Farhat

70' 🔁 S. Jung ◂ S. Trémoulet

70' 🔁 J. Ponente ◂ V. Bergh

73' 🔁 S. Klein ◂ M. Rasmussen

73' 🔁 R. Jones ◂ A. Ceesay

80' 🔁 T. Civeja ◂ D. Zor

82' 🔁 B. Hrgota ◂ C. Metcalfe

82' 🔁 A. Dźwigała ◂ L. Ritzka

87' B. Hrgota · Foul

Full-time · 2–0

Coaches

Marcel Rapp

Maximilian Senft

Recent form

FC St. Pauli

DHBorussia M'gladbach1-1

DAEnergie Cottbus1-1

WHVfL Wolfsburg1-0

DAArminia Bielefeld2-2

LH1. FC Kaiserslautern1-2

Karlsruher SC

WASV Wehen Wiesbaden2-1

LH1. FC Nürnberg0-1

LHEnergie Cottbus0-3

DAHannover 962-2

LHVfL Wolfsburg2-5

About this match

**St. Pauli's home fortress meets a Karlsruhe side in freefall** — this could get messy quick. 🔴

St. Pauli are drawing too much (3D in last 5) but holding serve at the Millerntor with a win over Wolfsburg. Karlsruhe, meanwhile, look shaky: just one win in their last five and a brutal 0-3 drubbing at home to Cottbus.

Key storylines:

- **St. Pauli's** attacking setup with **B. Hrgota** and **T. Hara** up top will fancy exploiting a Karlsruhe backline that's been leaking goals
- **M. Wanitzek** and **D. Zor** need to control the midfield for Karlsruhe, or St. Pauli's creative players will run riot
- H2H favors **St. Pauli** (2W in last 10) — they know how to break down this opponent

Expected lineups:

- **FC St. Pauli**: B. Voll, L. Oppie, D. Nemeth, M. Mathisen, A. Pyrka, E. Smith, M. Rasmussen, J. C. Fujita, B. Hrgota, T. Hara, S. Banks
- **Karlsruher SC**: H. Bernat, D. Ofli, C. Kobald, M. Franke, R. P. Pedrosa, K. Wiethaup, M. Wanitzek, D. Zor, S. Jung, S. Fukuda, M. Broschinski

Prediction:

**St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruhe** — slight favorite at home with form and fixture history both favoring the hosts. 📍

Where to watch

Sky Go

Match facts

Stadium

Millerntor-Stadion

City

Hamburg

Referee

Lukas Benen

0.94 yellows/match · 16 matches

Kickoff

11 Oct, 11:30 UTC

Competition

2. Bundesliga

Top stats

46%Possession54%

0.8Expected goals (xG)1.16

13Total shots12

6Shots on target5

1Big chances3

6Corners9

Shots

4Shots off target3

3Blocked shots4

7Shots inside box9

6Shots outside box3

1Big chances missed3

1.05Goals prevented-1.16

Attack

16Touches in box16

42Final third entries64

4Offsides2

15Free kicks12

2Fouled in final third2

Passing

409Passes472

322Accurate passes375

25/58 (43%)Long balls24/43 (56%)

3/17 (18%)Crosses5/20 (25%)

17Throw-ins19

Duels

52Duels48

43/82 (52%)Ground duels39/82 (48%)

11/22 (50%)Aerial duels11/22 (50%)

6/13 (46%)Dribbles15/30 (50%)

5Dispossessed7

Defending

22Tackles12

36Tackles won67

17Interceptions10

40Clearances35

60Recoveries53

Discipline

12Fouls15

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

0Big saves1

5Goal kicks7

1Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 20 bookmakers

St. Pauli 55%

23%

Karlsruhe 23%

CornersOver 10.5 corners 50% · 1.92 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 9.5 corners 60% · 1.55 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 71% · 1.27 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 65% · 3.10 @ William Hill

Who winsKarlsruhe to win (DNB) 55% · 3.40 @ Bet365

BTTSBoth teams to score 63% · 2.50 @ Bet365

1X2St. Pauli to win 55% · 2.00 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 84% · 1.67 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 23% · 2.93 @ 1xBet

1X2Karlsruhe to win 23% · 4.06 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 59% · 1.74 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.69

FC St. Pauli

4.20

Draw

4.18

Karlsruher SC

Double Chanceconsensus

1.20

FC St. Pauli or Draw

1.20

FC St. Pauli or Karlsruher SC

2.13

Draw or Karlsruher SC

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.55

Yes

2.30

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.70

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

9.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

19.25

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.10

Over 1.50

6.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.43

Over 2.50

2.70

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.10

Over 3.50

1.69

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

3.50

Over 4.50

1.29

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.29

FC St. Pauli

3.30

Karlsruher SC

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.12

Over 7.50

4.80

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.27

Over 8.50

3.30

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.54

Over 9.50

2.34

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

1.89

Over 10.50

1.86

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.30

Over 11.50

1.56

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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