Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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xG sized**Both teams are desperately searching for a win**, and this Sunday fixture has all the makings of a chaotic, sloppy affair where whoever stops shooting themselves in the foot first takes the points. 🔥
UD Sousense are winless in five but at least grabbed a 3-3 draw at home; Estrela Calheta sit equally toothless with just two draws in their last five. Neither side has figured out how to close out matches, making this a coin flip between two teams limping through the Campeonato de Portugal.
Key storylines:
- **UD Sousense's defensive frailty** — they've conceded 8 goals in their last three games and can't seem to hold shape in the closing stages
- **Estrela Calheta's attacking inconsistency** — they swung from 0-3 to 2-2, then back to 1-3, showing zero consistency up front
- **Home advantage** for Sousense could be the difference, given their slightly steadier recent form at their ground
Expected lineups:
- **UD Sousense**: D. Vilela, B. Rocha, C. Lopes, D. Rodrigues, D. Gabriel, D. Costa, A. Ferreira, E. Costa, J. Gonçalves
- **Estrela Calheta FC**: H. Andrade, C. Teixeira, C. Vasconcelos, D. Martins, F. Silva, Dino, F. Abreu, J. Abreu, J. Sebastião
Prediction:
**UD Sousense 2–1 Estrela Calheta FC**
Sousense's home-ground edge nudges them over the line in a scrappy, low-quality encounter.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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