Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sized**Alcochetense are hot, Serpa are... stuck in neutral.** 📊 This Campeonato de Portugal clash pits a streaky home side against visitors who can't break a draw habit (three draws in five). Could be a statement moment for the hosts.
**Alcochetense** are the sharper outfit right now—two wins in their last five including a road victory at SC Mineiro Aljustrelense. **Serpa** lean on solidity (five games, zero wins) but their defensive shape has kept them in games. Home advantage and recent form tilt heavily toward the hosts here.
Key storylines:
- **Alcochetense's attacking trio** of D. Ferreira, G. Pinto, and F. S. Azevedo will test **Serpa's back five**—Petrosse, Prata, Cabrera, Ocante, and Claudio need to stay sharp
- **Racsan and Lóia** anchoring the Alcochetense midfield against **Malagueta and Marquinhos** makes for a nervy central battle
- Serpa have drawn three of their last five; **Godinho** up front will be isolated if Alcochetense dominate possession
Expected lineups:
- **GD Alcochetense**: G. Christino, D. Lopes, J. Teixeira, M. Abreu, S. Lóia, A. Racsan, D. Freire, D. Ferreira, G. Pinto, F. S. Azevedo, Harramiz
- **FC Serpa**: R. Rosindo, C. Petrosse, D. Prata, F. Cabrera, I. Ocante, I. Claudio, J. Malagueta, Marquinhos, R. Tchê, J. Raposo, G. Godinho
Prediction:
**Alcochetense 2–0 Serpa.** Home form and attacking rhythm edge out a defensively rigid but blunt Serpa side.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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