Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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**Graz hosts a wobbling Austria Wien side that's barely keeping their heads above water.** 🔥 Both teams are treading water in the league, but Grazer's recent grit—two wins in five—gives them the edge here.
Austria Wien are in freefall after that humbling 1-4 loss to Salzburg and a shock defeat at home to Tirol. Grazer, meanwhile, just ground out a win in Altach and look sharper overall. The visitors' injury list (Nnodim and Wiesinger out) won't help their cause either.
Key storylines:
- **Anderson** up top for Grazer will be keen to punish an Austria Wien back line that's leaked four goals in their last away outing
- **Austria Wien's midfield balance** is under strain without Nnodim; look for Grazer to press hard through the center with **M. Gragger** and **P. Michorl**
- **Kang-hee Lee** and **T. Lee** carry Austria Wien's attacking hope, but they'll need space against a compact Grazer setup
Expected lineups:
- **Grazer AK 1902**: C. Stanković, L. Klassen, B. Owusu, M. Gragger, T. Koch, P. Michorl, Anderson, A. Hofleitner
- **FK Austria Wien**: S. Sahin-Radlinger, M. Schablas, A. Dragović, R. Ranftl, M. Fischer, V. Markovic, J. Hettwer
Prediction:
**Grazer AK 1902 2-1 FK Austria Wien.** Slight lean toward the hosts to exploit Austria Wien's defensive fragility and lack of cohesion.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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