Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Japan's got the edge here** — they're clicking at home while Venezuela's been a mess away from it, and this friendly is a chance to build momentum. 🔥
Japan's unbeaten run at the Saitama Stadium is solid, though that loss to Brazil shows they can still leak goals. Venezuela, meanwhile, has dropped three of their last five and struggled defensively in that Canada defeat. This one should favor the hosts, but friendlies can be chaotic.
Key storylines:
- **Japan's midfield control**: W. Endo and K. Nakamura will likely dominate possession against a **Venezuela** side that likes to sit deeper
- **Ueda and Maeda's chemistry**: The front two have been rotated lately and need to find form in attack
- **Venezuela's counter play**: S. Rondón's experience up top could be dangerous on the break if Japan overcommits
Expected lineups:
- **Japan**: Z. Suzuki, H. Itō, S. Taniguchi, T. Tomiyasu, K. Nakamura, W. Endo, D. Kamada, D. Maeda, A. Ueda, K. Goto
- **Venezuela**: R. Romo, M. Navarro, N. Ferraresi, T. Q. León, C. Cásseres Jr., T. Segovia, J. Savarino, D. M. Morales, S. Rondón
Prediction:
**Japan 2-0 Venezuela** — home comfort and Venezuela's defensive leaks seal it. Japan's a slight favorite to control and convert.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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