Bohemians Praha 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Bohemians Praha 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava.

90+3'

L. Almási

Substitution, Bohemians Praha 1905: D. Heidenreich comes on for L. Almási.

90+3'

A. Čermák

Substitution, Bohemians Praha 1905: D. Vála comes on for A. Čermák.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

88'

A. Musák

Attempt blocked. A. Musák (Baník Ostrava), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

88'

Baník Ostrava

Corner, Baník Ostrava.

86'

M. Kadlec

Attempt blocked. M. Kadlec (Bohemians Praha 1905), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

86'

D. Lischka

Attempt missed. D. Lischka (Bohemians Praha 1905), header from a corner. xG 0.18.

85'

D. Javorček

Attempt missed. D. Javorček (Bohemians Praha 1905), right-footed shot. xG 0.29.

83'

D. Holzer

Substitution, Baník Ostrava: M. Kmeť comes on for D. Holzer.

79'

R. Kvet

Substitution, Bohemians Praha 1905: Š. Černý comes on for R. Kvet.

75'

Bohemians Praha 1905

Offside, Bohemians Praha 1905.

74'

J. Boula

Substitution, Baník Ostrava: A. Traore comes on for J. Boula.

74'

V. Jurečka

Substitution, Baník Ostrava: M. Kohút comes on for V. Jurečka.

73'

L. Almási

VAR check complete: the goal for Bohemians Praha 1905 stands.

69'

V. Smrz

Substitution, Bohemians Praha 1905: S. Obinaya comes on for V. Smrz.

69'

L. Krobot

Substitution, Bohemians Praha 1905: V. Pilař comes on for L. Krobot.

68'

V. Smrz

Attempt saved. V. Smrz (Bohemians Praha 1905), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

68'

L. Krobot

Attempt missed. L. Krobot (Bohemians Praha 1905), header from a corner. xG 0.10.

65'

R. Nogha

Attempt missed. R. Nogha (Baník Ostrava), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

64'

Baník Ostrava

Corner, Baník Ostrava.

64'

M. Frydrych

Attempt blocked. M. Frydrych (Baník Ostrava), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

60'

D. Planka

Substitution, Baník Ostrava: A. Musák comes on for D. Planka.

53'

A. Bewene

Attempt blocked. A. Bewene (Baník Ostrava), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

53'

Baník Ostrava

Corner, Baník Ostrava.

52'

Baník Ostrava

Corner, Baník Ostrava.

50'

R. Kvet

Attempt blocked. R. Kvet (Bohemians Praha 1905), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

50'

V. Smrz

Attempt missed. V. Smrz (Bohemians Praha 1905), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

46'

F. Šancl

Substitution, Baník Ostrava: D. Gilbert comes on for F. Šancl.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Bohemians Praha 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava.

45'

V. Smrz

Attempt missed. V. Smrz (Bohemians Praha 1905), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

43'

M. Kadlec

Attempt saved. M. Kadlec (Bohemians Praha 1905), header from a set piece. xG 0.28.

41'

L. Almási

Attempt missed. L. Almási (Bohemians Praha 1905), header from a throw-in. xG 0.09.

39'

L. Krobot

Attempt missed. L. Krobot (Bohemians Praha 1905), right-footed shot. xG 0.22.

38'

L. Almási

Off the woodwork! L. Almási (Bohemians Praha 1905), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

36'

V. Skrkon

Attempt missed. V. Skrkon (Baník Ostrava), right-footed shot. xG 0.26.

35'

Bohemians Praha 1905

Offside, Bohemians Praha 1905.

34'

D. Javorček

Attempt saved. D. Javorček (Bohemians Praha 1905), left-footed shot. xG 0.20.

31'

F. Šancl

Attempt blocked. F. Šancl (Baník Ostrava), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

29'

Baník Ostrava

Corner, Baník Ostrava.

29'

D. Planka

Cleared off the line! D. Planka (Baník Ostrava), right-footed shot. xG 0.17.

28'

Bohemians Praha 1905

Offside, Bohemians Praha 1905.

26'

A. Čermák

Goal! Bohemians Praha 1905 1-0 Baník Ostrava. A. Čermák (Bohemians Praha 1905) scores, assisted by V. Smrz.

23'

A. Bewene

Attempt blocked. A. Bewene (Baník Ostrava), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

22'

D. Lischka

Attempt missed. D. Lischka (Bohemians Praha 1905), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

21'

R. Kvet

Attempt blocked. R. Kvet (Bohemians Praha 1905), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

16'

D. Lischka

Attempt blocked. D. Lischka (Bohemians Praha 1905), header from a corner. xG 0.30.

15'

V. Jurečka

Attempt saved. V. Jurečka (Baník Ostrava), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

6'

V. Smrz

Attempt saved. V. Smrz (Bohemians Praha 1905), right-footed shot. xG 0.14.

5'

M. Kadlec

Attempt missed. M. Kadlec (Bohemians Praha 1905), right-footed shot. xG 0.21.

1'

Kick-off: Bohemians Praha 1905 vs Baník Ostrava.

Where the money is

35493 EUR matched · captured 1 week, 2 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 7344 EUR · live

Home 1.02 · implied 98.0%

65.8%

-32.2 vs price

Away 110.0 · implied 0.9%

27.6%

+26.7 vs price

Draw 20.0 · implied 5.0%

10.3%

+5.2 vs price

Half time 63 EUR · live

Draw 1.88 · implied 53.2%

99.7%

+46.5 vs price

Home 2.84 · implied 35.2%

0.0%

-35.2 vs price

Away 3.6 · implied 27.8%

0.0%

-27.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 5240 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

72.6%

-26.4 vs price

Over 70.0 · implied 1.4%

27.6%

+26.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 431 EUR · live

Under 1.03 · implied 97.1%

96.3%

-0.8 vs price

Over 28.0 · implied 3.6%

3.3%

-0.3 vs price

11 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

26' ⚽ A. Čermák · assist V. Smrz1–0

Half-time · 1–0

46' 🔁 D. Gilbert ◂ F. Šancl

60' 🔁 A. Musák ◂ D. Planka

69' 🔁 V. Pilař ◂ L. Krobot

69' 🔁 S. Obinaya ◂ V. Smrz

73' VAR Goal not given after review · L. Almási

74' 🔁 M. Kohút ◂ V. Jurečka

74' 🔁 A. Traore ◂ J. Boula

79' 🔁 Š. Černý ◂ R. Kvet

83' 🔁 M. Kmeť ◂ D. Holzer

Full-time · 1–0

90'⁺³ 🔁 D. Vála ◂ A. Čermák

90'⁺³ 🔁 D. Heidenreich ◂ L. Almási

Coaches

Jaroslav Vesely

Roman Skuhravý

Recent form

Bohemians Praha 1905

DABohemian FC0-0

LAFK Pardubice1-2

WH1. FC Slovácko2-0

LASK Sigma Olomouc0-3

DHFK Jablonec1-1

Baník Ostrava

DAGKS Katowice1-1

DA1. FC Slovácko2-2

LHFK Pardubice1-2

LAFK Jablonec0-3

LAMladá Boleslav0-4

About this match

**Bohemians roll into this one as heavy favorites** — they're playing at home with actual form, while Baník are limping in winless and injury-ravaged. 🏟️

Bohemians have won their last home game and picked up draws on the road; Baník haven't won in five and are down two key defenders to injury. The hosts should dictate this one.

Key storylines:

- **Bohemians** need to cash in on home advantage and keep climbing the table after that 2-0 win vs Slovácko
- **Baník's** defensive crisis deepens without A. Gning and V. Sinyavskiy, forcing them into an already fragile backline
- **V. Pilař** and **M. Havel** in attack face a vulnerable Ostrava side that shipped 2 goals to Pardubice last time out

Expected lineups:

- **Bohemians Praha 1905**: T. Frühwald, P. Mirvald, D. Heidenreich, D. Lischka, B. Sakala, V. Smrz, J. Matoušek, V. Pilař
- **Baník Ostrava**: M. Jedlička, D. Holzer, A. Traore, D. Planka, A. Bewene, A. Musák, D. Gilbert, F. Šancl

Prediction:

**Bohemians 2-0 Baník Ostrava**

Home edge, better form, and Baník's injury woes point to a comfortable Prague win. 💪

Match facts

Stadium

Dolicek Stadium

City

Prague

Referee

Adam Trska

Kickoff

10 Oct, 16:00 UTC

Competition

Czech First League

Highlights & clips

Bohemians Praha 1905 5-3-2 · 3-5-2 Baník Ostrava

23 T. Frühwald 7.0 32 P. Mirvald 7.6 24 M. Havel 7.9 27 D. Lischka 7.4 3 M. Kadlec 8.4 37 D. Javorček 7.3 8 D. Heidenreich ↑ 90' 62 S. Obinaya 6.8 ↑ 69' 70 Š. Černý 6.6 ↑ 79' 11 V. Pilař 6.7 ↑ 69' 18 D. Vála ↑ 90' 23 M. Jedlička 7.3 17 M. Frydrych 7.3 83 R. Nogha 7.1 42 J. Micek 6.4 81 M. Kmeť 6.7 ↑ 83' 7 D. Gilbert 6.3 ↑ 46' 8 A. Traore 6.6 ↑ 74' 55 A. Musák 6.5 ↑ 60' 34 A. Bewene 6.9 21 M. Kohút 6.4 ↑ 74' 22 V. Skrkon 5.9

Substitutes

12GM. Reichl 25DP. Karim 15DM. Banda 22DJ. Vondra 47MA. Čermák↓ 90'10.0 42MV. Smrz↓ 69'7.8 16MR. Kvet↓ 79'7.6 66MO. Mikuda 19MJ. Kovařík 99FL. Almási↓ 90'6.8 9FL. Krobot↓ 69'6.6

Coach: Jaroslav Vesely

Substitutes

1GV. Budinský 3DR. Smith 37DM. Chaluš 95MD. Holzer↓ 83'7.1 18MD. Planka↓ 60'6.6 5MJ. Boula↓ 74'6.5 19MF. Šancl↓ 46'6.1 15FV. Jurečka↓ 74'6.7 28FF. Kubala

Coach: Roman Skuhravý

Top stats

49%Possession51%

2.51Expected goals (xG)0.73

19Total shots9

5Shots on target2

2Big chances1

5Corners5

Shots

10Shots off target2

4Blocked shots5

15Shots inside box5

4Shots outside box4

1Hit woodwork0

1Big chances scored0

1Big chances missed1

0.11Goals prevented0.27

Attack

36Touches in box13

66Final third entries60

3Offsides3

10Free kicks4

1Fouled in final third0

Passing

414Passes442

344Accurate passes358

36/61 (59%)Long balls11/35 (31%)

8/28 (29%)Crosses0/7 (0%)

25Throw-ins26

Duels

65Duels35

41/67 (61%)Ground duels26/67 (39%)

19/26 (73%)Aerial duels7/26 (27%)

6/11 (55%)Dribbles8/19 (42%)

9Dispossessed14

Defending

25Tackles14

56Tackles won71

15Interceptions8

28Clearances21

55Recoveries46

Discipline

4Fouls10

0Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

6Goal kicks15

0Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 15 bookmakers

Bohemians 43%

28%

Baník 29%

Who winsBohemians to win (DNB) 71% · 1.62 @ Betsson

BTTSBoth teams to score 58% · 1.61 @ 888Sport

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 1.73 @ Bet365

CornersOver 8.5 corners 60%

1X2Draw 28% · 2.30 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 76% · 1.22 @ Bet365

1X2Baník to win 29% · 3.60 @ Bet365

1X2Bohemians to win 43% · 2.75 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 64%

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 52% · 1.83 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 68% · 1.40 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.10

Bohemians Praha 1905

3.30

Draw

3.10

Baník Ostrava

Double Chanceconsensus

1.33

Bohemians Praha 1905 or Draw

1.30

Bohemians Praha 1905 or Baník Ostrava

1.61

Draw or Baník Ostrava

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.58

Yes

2.22

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

13.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.22

Over 1.50

4.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.73

Over 2.50

2.08

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.75

Over 3.50

1.40

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.50

Over 4.50

1.14

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.60

Bohemians Praha 1905

2.24

Baník Ostrava

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.83

Over 9.50

1.83

Under 9.50

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

2.75

Bohemians Praha 1905

2.30

Draw

3.60

Baník Ostrava

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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