Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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Alessandro Nesta
US Avellino 1912
Sampdoria**Avellino's got the edge here** — they're cruising at home while Sampdoria's spiraling, and the h2h tells a pretty solid story too. 🔴
Avellino sit in decent nick with 2 wins in their last 5, though that 3-1 loss to Ascoli stung. Sampdoria, meanwhile, are genuinely struggling — just one win in five games and shipping goals left and right. Missing Sinani and Abildgaard doesn't help their cause either.
Key storylines:
- **Avellino's attacking pair** — **Russo** and **Pandolfi** have been serviceable up top and should find space against a leaky Sampdoria defence
- **Sampdoria's inconsistency** — **Tutino** and **Lauritsen** need to spark something but haven't found rhythm this season
- **Home fortress** — Avellino's Partenio-Adriano Lombardi has been kind to them; Sampdoria are rattled on the road
Expected lineups:
- **US Avellino 1912**: T. Martinelli, L. Šimić, A. Izzo, M. Venturi, B. Moruzzi, T. Cancellotti, D. Sounas, M. Besaggio, L. Palmiero, R. Russo, L. Pandolfi
- **Sampdoria**: P. Vindahl, M. Cicconi, S. Gartenmann, M. Viti, A. Di Pardo, S. Esposito, L. Henderson, G. Forte, G. Tutino, T. Lauritsen, F. Depaoli
Prediction:
**Avellino 2–1 Sampdoria** — home comfort should carry the day here, but Sampdoria stay dangerous enough to snag a goal. 🎯
US Avellino 1912
3-5-2 · 4-3-2-1
Sampdoria
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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