Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match prediction BSD model
Both Teams to Score
BTTS Yes 56%
Total Goals 1.5
Over 1.5 goals 97% · Pick: Over 1.5 goals
Total Goals 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 85% · Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Total Goals 3.5
Over 3.5 goals 58%
Timeline
⚽Paulinho
21'
S. Simón
30'
P. N. Ortíz
31'
R. Árciga
38'
🔁J. Gómez ◂ R. Árciga
46'
🔁D. Blanco ◂ J. Rivero
46'
🔁D. Barbosa ◂ J. Díaz
62'
M. Ruíz
66'
🔁S. Córdova ◂ J. R. Angulo
75'
🔁J. Vega ◂ P. N. Ortíz
76'
🔁D. Abreu ◂ A. Preciado
76'
🔁L. Garcia ◂ P. Pérez
83'
🔁J. Martínez ◂ M. E. Ghezouani
84'
Coaches
Antonio MohamedSebastian Abreu 
Recent form
CD TolucaDCD Toluca1-1Cruz Azul
DClub Puebla0-0CD Toluca
DTigres UANL0-0CD Toluca
WCD Toluca3-1Santos Laguna
WCF Monterrey0-1CD Toluca
Club TijuanaDClub Tijuana0-0Club Puebla
DCF Monterrey2-2Club Tijuana
DClub Tijuana1-1Atlético San Luis
WQuerétaro FC1-2Club Tijuana
DClub Tijuana0-0Club América
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Nemesio Diez
City
Toluca
Referee
Joaquin Alberto Vizcarra Armenta
Kickoff
14 Feb, 03:05 UTC
CD Toluca
4-4-2 · 4-1-4-1
Club Tijuana
1
H. Gonzalez
7.1
19
S. Simón
7.3
4
Bruno Méndez
7.3
6
F. Pereira
7.4
20
J. Gallardo
7.4
10
J. R. Angulo
6.9
5
F. Romero
7.6
14
M. Ruíz
8.0
15
P. Pérez
7.0
29
J. Díaz
5.8
26
Paulinho
7.3
2
A. Rodríguez
7.3
3
R. Fernández
6.3
12
J. Porozo
7.6
4
U. Bilbao
6.8
33
P. N. Ortíz
6.7
8
I. Tona
6.7
17
R. Árciga
6.2
22
J. Rivero
6.5
10
K. Castañeda
6.4
11
A. Preciado
6.5
9
M. E. Ghezouani
6.3
Substitutes
2D. Barbosa6.67S. Córdova6.613L. Garcia6.623O. Virgen27F. Rossi24F. Arce Jr.35A. Álvarez3A. Briseño22L. García25E. López
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
Substitutes
6J. Gómez6.827D. Blanco6.531D. Abreu6.416J. Vega6.930J. Martínez6.520Á. Zapata25O. Manzanares32D. Bagüí29J. Hernández187G. Padilla
Coach: Sebastian Abreu
58%Possession42%
2.0Expected goals (xG)0.28
12Total shots7
4Shots on target3
3Big chances0
4Corners4
10Fouls15
3Yellow cards3