Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match prediction BSD model
Both Teams to Score
BTTS Yes 23%
Total Goals 1.5
Over 1.5 goals 65%
Total Goals 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 32%
Total Goals 3.5
Over 3.5 goals 10% · Pick: Under 3.5 goals
Timeline
R. Martínez
9'
M. Ruíz
14'
J. Gallardo
22'
R. Monreal
22'
A. Peña
29'
F. Pereira
37'
E. Unsaín
52'
🔁J. Ruiz ◂ A. Almendra
57'
🔁E. Lara ◂ A. Peña
57'
🔁J. Díaz ◂ P. Pérez
62'
🔁S. Córdova ◂ J. R. Angulo
75'
🔁T. Badaloni ◂ J. Carranza
76'
⚽Paulinho
79'
⚽Paulinho
83'
🔁F. Rossi ◂ Paulinho
86'
🔁M. A. Isais ◂ J. Gallardo
86'
🔁L. Garcia ◂ S. Simón
86'
🔁F. Rossano ◂ R. Martínez
87'
🔁K. Gutiérrez ◂ D. Leyva
87'
⚽F. Pereira
90'
Coaches
Martin VariniAntonio Mohamed 
Recent form
Club NecaxaWFC Juárez1-2Club Necaxa
WClub Necaxa4-1Atlético San Luis
LClub América2-0Club Necaxa
LClub Necaxa0-1Atlas FC
LClub Necaxa0-2CF Monterrey
CD TolucaWCD Toluca1-0Club Tijuana
DCD Toluca1-1Cruz Azul
DClub Puebla0-0CD Toluca
DTigres UANL0-0CD Toluca
WCD Toluca3-1Santos Laguna
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Victoria
City
Aguascalientes
Referee
Yonatan Peinado Aguirre
Kickoff
22 Feb, 01:00 UTC
Club Necaxa
3-4-1-2 · 4-2-3-1
CD Toluca
22
E. Unsaín
5.8
33
R. Martínez
6.1
4
A. Peña
7.1
3
A. Oliveros
6.9
30
R. Monreal
6.3
8
L. Faravelli
6.9
6
D. Leyva
7.4
16
C. Calderón
7.1
188
I. Tello
6.7
21
J. Carranza
6.7
10
A. Almendra
6.6
22
L. García
8.0
2
D. Barbosa
7.0
6
F. Pereira
7.8
25
E. López
7.0
20
J. Gallardo
7.3
14
M. Ruíz
7.0
5
F. Romero
6.9
19
S. Simón
6.7
10
J. R. Angulo
6.7
15
P. Pérez
7.3
26
Paulinho
7.8
Substitutes
35J. Ruiz6.326E. Lara6.29T. Badaloni6.424F. Rossano6.25K. Gutiérrez6.517R. C. Pineda232R. Alonso12L. Jimenez20F. Méndez2E. Martínez
Coach: Martin Varini
Substitutes
29J. Díaz7.47S. Córdova6.617M. A. Isais6.613L. Garcia6.727F. Rossi6.624F. Arce Jr.1H. Gonzalez3A. Briseño23O. Virgen4Bruno Méndez
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
46%Possession54%
0.61Expected goals (xG)3.05
12Total shots20
6Shots on target7
1Big chances8
3Corners7
8Fouls15
4Yellow cards3