Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match events
5'
⚽
J. Gallardo (pen)1–0
13'
F. Romero
16'
⚽
J. Díaz2–0
40'
🔁
B. Gutierrez ◂ L. Romo
45'
D. Barbosa
46'
🔁
E. López ◂ S. Simón
46'
🔁
S. Sandoval ◂ J. Castillo
46'
🔁
Á. Sepúlveda ◂ E. Alvarez
46'
🔁
H. Camberos ◂ R. Ledezma
51'
J. Gallardo
53'
F. González
60'
🔁
R. Marín ◂ A. González
64'
D. Aguirre
67'
Á. Sepúlveda
71'
🔁
Helinho ◂ J. Díaz
75'
🔁
P. Pérez ◂ J. R. Angulo
90'
🔁
F. Arce Jr. ◂ M. Ruíz
90'
🔁
L. Garcia ◂ J. Gallardo
90'
M. Ruíz
Coaches
Antonio MohamedGabriel Milito 
Recent form
CD TolucaWClub Necaxa0-3CD Toluca
WCD Toluca1-0Club Tijuana
DCD Toluca1-1Cruz Azul
DClub Puebla0-0CD Toluca
DTigres UANL0-0CD Toluca
CD GuadalajaraLCruz Azul2-1CD Guadalajara
WCD Guadalajara1-0Club América
WMazatlán FC1-2CD Guadalajara
WAtlético San Luis2-3CD Guadalajara
WCD Guadalajara2-1Querétaro FC
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Nemesio Diez
City
Toluca
Referee
Oscar Mejia Garcia
Kickoff
28 Feb, 23:00 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Clausura
CD Toluca
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
CD Guadalajara
22
L. García
7.5
2
D. Barbosa
7.2
4
Bruno Méndez
7.2
6
F. Pereira
6.9
20
J. Gallardo
7.3
5
F. Romero
7.0
14
M. Ruíz
7.3
19
S. Simón
6.4
10
J. R. Angulo
6.7
29
J. Díaz
8.5
26
Paulinho
7.9
1
R. Rangel
6.5
19
D. Campillo
6.8
7
L. Romo
6.0
2
J. Castillo
6.3
37
R. Ledezma
5.8
28
F. González
6.1
23
D. Aguirre
6.6
5
B. González
7.0
25
R. Alvarado
7.2
10
E. Alvarez
6.5
34
A. González
6.4
Substitutes
25E. López6.711Helinho6.515P. Pérez6.724F. Arce Jr.13L. Garcia1H. Gonzalez7S. Córdova3A. Briseño17M. A. Isais27F. Rossi
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
46%Possession54%
2.01Expected goals (xG)0.83
13Total shots10
5Shots on target4
3Big chances2
2Corners4
19Fouls15
4Yellow cards3
Model prediction BSD ML
Both Teams to ScoreBTTS Yes 52%
Total Goals 1.5Over 1.5 goals 94% · Pick: Over 1.5 goals
Total Goals 2.5Over 2.5 goals 76%
Total Goals 3.5Over 3.5 goals 45%