Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match events
2'
Monchu
49'
M. Mosquera
54'
⚽
Helinho (pen)1–0
57'
D. Barbosa
58'
F. Nevarez
68'
🔁
H. Martinez ◂ Monchu
68'
🔁
G. Castilho ◂ J. Torres
68'
🔁
L. M. Dupuy ◂ J. L. Rodríguez
70'
⚽
A. Briseño · assist S. Córdova2–0
70'
J. Murillo
72'
⚽
G. Castilho · assist R. Pizarro2–1
74'
🔁
E. Ayón ◂ Ó. Estupiñán
76'
🔁
J. Gallardo ◂ M. A. Isais
77'
🔁
Paulinho ◂ F. Rossi
81'
🔁
A. Vega ◂ S. Córdova
81'
🔁
F. Pereira ◂ Helinho
81'
🔁
J. Aquino ◂ F. Nevarez
86'
🔁
P. Pérez ◂ N. Castro
90'
⚽
Paulinho · assist M. Ruíz3–1
Coaches
Antonio MohamedPedro Caixinha 
Recent form
CD TolucaWPumas UNAM2-3CD Toluca
WCD Toluca2-0CD Guadalajara
WClub Necaxa0-3CD Toluca
WCD Toluca1-0Club Tijuana
DCD Toluca1-1Cruz Azul
FC JuárezWClub América1-2FC Juárez
WFC Juárez3-1Atlas FC
LFC Juárez1-2Club Necaxa
LCF Pachuca2-0FC Juárez
WEl Paso Locomotive FC2-4FC Juárez
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Nemesio Diez
City
Toluca
Referee
Luis Santander
Kickoff
08 Mar, 23:00 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Clausura
CD Toluca
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3
FC Juárez
22
L. García
6.7
2
D. Barbosa
6.9
3
A. Briseño
8.5
13
L. Garcia
6.7
17
M. A. Isais
6.8
14
M. Ruíz
7.9
24
F. Arce Jr.
7.1
11
Helinho
8.3
7
S. Córdova
6.5
8
N. Castro
7.0
27
F. Rossi
6.3
1
S. Jurado
6.1
33
F. Nevarez
6.3
2
J. Murillo
6.2
3
M. Mosquera
7.0
4
A. Mayorga
6.0
5
D. Garcia
6.5
6
Monchu
6.7
10
R. Pizarro
5.8
20
J. Torres
6.3
19
Ó. Estupiñán
5.6
11
J. L. Rodríguez
6.6
Substitutes
20J. Gallardo6.826Paulinho7.26F. Pereira6.79A. Vega7.015P. Pérez6.81H. Gonzalez25E. López5F. Romero184S. Aceves29J. Díaz
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
Substitutes
17L. M. Dupuy6.78G. Castilho7.318H. Martinez6.529E. Ayón6.422J. Aquino6.6237E. López13R. Fulgencio26J. Garcia24B. Díaz14D. Ochoa
Coach: Pedro Caixinha
65%Possession35%
2.23Expected goals (xG)0.27
19Total shots7
5Shots on target2
4Big chances1
6Corners4
12Fouls14
1Yellow cards4
Model prediction BSD ML
Both Teams to ScoreBTTS Yes 62%
Total Goals 1.5Over 1.5 goals 97% · Pick: Over 1.5 goals
Total Goals 2.5Over 2.5 goals 85% · Pick: Over 2.5 goals
Total Goals 3.5Over 3.5 goals 58%