Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match events
35'
D. González
46'
🔁
V. Ríos ◂ E. Zaldívar
56'
G. Aguirre
59'
🔁
Paulinho ◂ F. Rossi
59'
🔁
Helinho ◂ P. Pérez
65'
🔁
N. Castro ◂ V. Arteaga
65'
🔁
J. R. Angulo ◂ S. Córdova
65'
Paulinho
70'
A. Rocha
70'
L. Garcia
79'
🔁
L. Gamboa ◂ J. Rodríguez
85'
🔁
D. Barbosa ◂ S. Aceves
89'
🔁
E. Aguirre ◂ A. González
90'
⚽
V. Ríos · assist L. Gamboa1–1
90'
⚽
J. R. Angulo · assist Paulinho1–0
Coaches
Antonio MohamedDiego Martin Cocca 
Recent form
CD TolucaWCD Toluca3-1FC Juárez
WPumas UNAM2-3CD Toluca
WCD Toluca2-0CD Guadalajara
WClub Necaxa0-3CD Toluca
WCD Toluca1-0Club Tijuana
Atlas FCLAtlas FC1-2CD Guadalajara
WAtlas FC2-1Club Tijuana
LFC Juárez3-1Atlas FC
WAtlas FC3-2Atlético San Luis
LCF Pachuca3-1Atlas FC
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Nemesio Diez
City
Toluca
Referee
César Ramos Palazuelos
Kickoff
15 Mar, 01:00 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Clausura
CD Toluca
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-2
Atlas FC
22
L. García
7.4
184
S. Aceves
6.8
13
L. Garcia
7.1
3
A. Briseño
6.7
25
E. López
6.5
33
V. Arteaga
6.4
24
F. Arce Jr.
7.0
7
S. Córdova
7.4
9
A. Vega
7.7
15
P. Pérez
6.7
27
F. Rossi
6.3
12
C. Vargas
6.9
13
G. Aguirre
6.9
28
M. Capasso
7.2
21
R. Schlegel
6.2
6
E. Zaldívar
6.5
11
D. González
6.6
26
A. Rocha
7.0
15
P. Ramírez
6.4
25
J. Rodríguez
6.9
58
A. González
6.4
9
A. Rodríguez
6.3
Substitutes
11Helinho6.526Paulinho6.910J. R. Angulo7.78N. Castro6.72D. Barbosa6.35F. Romero1H. Gonzalez29J. Díaz4Bruno Méndez17M. A. Isais
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
Substitutes
27V. Ríos8.2251L. Gamboa7.219E. Aguirre6.522A. Sánchez10G. d. Prete44R. Pier203J. Martín208J. Guillén4A. Mora192J. Serrato
Coach: Diego Martin Cocca
63%Possession37%
1.85Expected goals (xG)1.37
25Total shots12
9Shots on target5
4Big chances2
8Corners4
9Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
Model prediction BSD ML
Both Teams to ScoreBTTS Yes 19% · Pick: BTTS No
Total Goals 1.5Over 1.5 goals 94% · Pick: Over 1.5 goals
Total Goals 2.5Over 2.5 goals 77%
Total Goals 3.5Over 3.5 goals 47%