Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match events
10'
E. López
35'
F. Pereira
35'
S. Rondón
45'
⚽
F. Romero0–1
50'
S. Barreto
57'
🔁
F. Arce Jr. ◂ Helinho
57'
🔁
E. Valencia ◂ A. D. Figueroa
67'
🔁
E. Montiel ◂ V. Guzmán
72'
⚽
E. Montiel · assist Kenedy1–1
74'
🔁
D. Barbosa ◂ S. Simón
74'
🔁
J. Díaz ◂ A. Vega
78'
F. Arce Jr.
81'
Paulinho
84'
🔁
C. Alfaro ◂ S. Barreto
84'
🔁
L. Quiñones ◂ Kenedy
84'
🔁
G. Álvarez ◂ O. Idrissi
88'
L. Quiñones
90'
🔁
S. Córdova ◂ Paulinho
Coaches
Esteban SolariAntonio Mohamed 
Recent form
CF PachucaDAtlético San Luis1-1CF Pachuca
WCF Pachuca2-1Club Puebla
WCF Pachuca2-1Club Necaxa
LMazatlán FC1-0CF Pachuca
WTigres UANL1-2CF Pachuca
CD TolucaDCD Toluca1-1Atlas FC
WCD Toluca3-1FC Juárez
WPumas UNAM2-3CD Toluca
WCD Toluca2-0CD Guadalajara
WClub Necaxa0-3CD Toluca
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
City
Pachuca de Soto
Referee
Vicente Jassiel Reynoso Arce
Kickoff
22 Mar, 23:00 UTC
Competition
Liga MX Clausura
CF Pachuca
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-3
CD Toluca
25
C. Moreno
6.9
14
C. Sánchez
6.8
4
E. Bauermann
6.7
2
S. Barreto
6.5
12
B. García
6.8
8
V. Guzmán
6.9
16
C. Rivera
6.9
29
Kenedy
6.5
18
A. D. Figueroa
6.7
11
O. Idrissi
7.4
23
S. Rondon
6.1
1
H. Gonzalez
6.2
4
Bruno Méndez
6.6
6
F. Pereira
7.3
25
E. López
6.9
19
S. Simón
6.6
5
F. Romero
7.6
10
J. R. Angulo
7.0
20
J. Gallardo
6.8
11
Helinho
6.9
26
Paulinho
6.1
9
A. Vega
8.0
Substitutes
10E. Valencia6.228E. Montiel7.97L. Quiñones6.7184C. Alfaro6.7187G. Álvarez6.431J. Eulogio26A. Bautista13J. Berlanga5P. Pedraza21R. López
Coach: Esteban Solari
Substitutes
24F. Arce Jr.5.52D. Barbosa7.029J. Díaz6.67S. Córdova6.527F. Rossi13L. Garcia23O. Virgen3A. Briseño17M. A. Isais22L. García
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
48%Possession52%
0.91Expected goals (xG)0.56
16Total shots8
4Shots on target2
1Big chances1
9Corners1
19Fouls12
3Yellow cards3
Model prediction BSD ML
Both Teams to ScoreBTTS Yes 31%
Total Goals 1.5Over 1.5 goals 65%
Total Goals 2.5Over 2.5 goals 32%
Total Goals 3.5Over 3.5 goals 10% · Pick: Under 3.5 goals