Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Timeline
⚽
45'
⚽
45'
L. Abascia
45'+2
🔁J. Gallardo ◂ M. Isais
58'
🔁A. Vega ◂ Helinho
59'
🔁F. Venegas ◂ J. P. Cázares
62'
🔁S. Córdova ◂ J. Díaz
72'
⚽A. Ávila
assist J. Julio
assist J. Julio
76'
🔁F. Rossi ◂ J. R. Angulo
79'
🔁S. Simón ◂ D. Barbosa
79'
🔁B. Parra ◂ S. Homenchenko
85'
🔁C. Villanueva ◂ J. Julio
85'
⚽
90'
⚽
90'
A. Ávila
90'+1
🔁L. Rodríguez ◂ A. Ávila
90'+4
🔁J. E. Robles ◂ M. Coronel
90'+4
N. Castro
90'+7
B. Duarte
90'+7
Coaches
Esteban GonzalezAntonio Mohamed 
Recent form
Querétaro FCDAtlas FC0-0Querétaro FC
DTigres UANL0-0Querétaro FC
LQuerétaro FC1-2Club América
LCF Monterrey4-0Querétaro FC
DQuerétaro FC2-2Santos Laguna
CD TolucaDCF Pachuca1-1CD Toluca
DCD Toluca1-1Atlas FC
WCD Toluca3-1FC Juárez
WPumas UNAM2-3CD Toluca
WCD Toluca2-0CD Guadalajara
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio La Corregidora
City
Santiago de Queretaro
Referee
Karen Hernandez Andrade
Kickoff
04 Apr, 23:00 UTC
Querétaro FC
4-4-2 · 3-4-3
CD Toluca
1
J. Hernández
8.1
22
B. Duarte
7.9
9
D. Reyes
7.5
2
L. Abascia
6.9
27
D. Parra
6.9
7
J. Julio
7.3
4
C. A. García
6.7
6
S. Homenchenko
6.9
37
M. Coronel
6.9
190
J. P. Cázares
6.0
31
A. Ávila
7.5
22
L. García
7.9
2
D. Barbosa
6.8
6
F. Pereira
7.8
25
E. López
7.0
11
Helinho
7.1
8
N. Castro
7.4
5
F. Romero
7.4
17
M. A. Isais
6.5
10
J. R. Angulo
6.2
26
Paulinho
6.7
29
J. Díaz
6.9
Substitutes
17F. Venegas7.115C. Villanueva6.78B. Parra6.623J. E. Robles10L. Rodríguez55M. Carcelén12J. Gomez14J. Unjanque26E. Perez24L. Garcia
Coach: Esteban Gonzalez
Substitutes
20J. Gallardo6.59A. Vega7.07S. Córdova6.519S. Simón6.527F. Rossi6.71H. Gonzalez33V. Arteaga3A. Briseño4Bruno Méndez13L. Garcia
Coach: Antonio Mohamed
24%Possession76%
2.06Expected goals (xG)2.26
10Total shots23
6Shots on target5
5Big chances4
3Corners7
12Fouls6
3Yellow cards1
Model prediction BSD ML
Both Teams to ScoreBTTS Yes 67%
Total Goals 1.5Over 1.5 goals 61%
Total Goals 2.5Over 2.5 goals 29%
Total Goals 3.5Over 3.5 goals 8% · Pick: Under 3.5 goals