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Rob Penders
Roda JC Kerkrade
Jong AZ Alkmaar
Roda JC Kerkrade
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1
Jong AZ Alkmaar
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Roda JC Kerkrade 2-1 Jong AZ Alkmaar.
90'
3 minutes of added time.
82'
Attempt saved. M. Bentoumi (Roda JC Kerkrade), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.12.
79'
Attempt blocked. F. Elkjær Andersen (Jong AZ Alkmaar), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.06.
79'
Goal! Roda JC Kerkrade 2-1 Jong AZ Alkmaar. F. Elkjær Andersen (Jong AZ Alkmaar) scores.
71'
Attempt missed. G. Peixoto (Roda JC Kerkrade), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.
67'
Attempt missed. A. van den Hurk (Roda JC Kerkrade), header from a corner. xG 0.19.
61'
Goal! Roda JC Kerkrade 2-0 Jong AZ Alkmaar. A. van den Hurk (Roda JC Kerkrade) scores, assisted by K. Jansen.
56'
Attempt blocked. J. Hartog (Jong AZ Alkmaar), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Roda JC Kerkrade 1-0 Jong AZ Alkmaar.
45'
1 minute of added time.
35'
Goal! Roda JC Kerkrade 1-0 Jong AZ Alkmaar. M. Paulissen (Roda JC Kerkrade) scores, assisted by G. Peixoto.
20'
Attempt saved. F. Elkjær Andersen (Jong AZ Alkmaar), header from a corner. xG 0.03.
1'
Kick-off: Roda JC Kerkrade vs Jong AZ Alkmaar.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
32753 EUR · live
Home
1.04 · implied 96.2%
89.3%
-6.9 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
6.4%
+6.3 vs price
Draw
27.0 · implied 3.7%
4.3%
+0.6 vs price
Half time
0 EUR
Home
2.32 · implied 43.1%
100.0%
+56.9 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
5487 EUR · live
Over
2.04 · implied 49.0%
60.5%
+11.5 vs price
Under
1.94 · implied 51.5%
39.5%
-12.1 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Player of the match
Match events
28'
M. Menu · Foul
30'
🔁
J. Sleegers ◂ C. Seedorf
35'
⚽
M. Paulissen · assist G. Peixoto1–0
Half-time · 1–0
46'
🔁
S. Simons ◂ K. Toppenberg
55'
J. Deom · Foul
57'
🔁
B. Budko ◂ H. d. Wit
61'
⚽
A. van den Hurk · assist K. Jansen2–0
64'
J. Sijbrands · Persistent fouling
76'
🔁
J. Esajas ◂ J. Sijbrands
77'
🔁
R. Atikallah ◂ J. Hartog
77'
🔁
M. Roede ◂ J. Bergraaf
79'
⚽
F. Elkjær Andersen2–1
80'
🔁
J. Mensah ◂ J. Deom
80'
🔁
M. Bentoumi ◂ M. Paulissen
85'
M. Menu · Foul
89'
🔁
X. v. d. Berg ◂ G. Peixoto
89'
🔁
B. Marsman ◂ K. Jansen
Full-time · 2–1
Coaches
Rob PendersFrank Peereboom 
Recent form
Roda JC KerkradeWAAlmere City FC3-2
WAJong FC Utrecht2-1
DHJong PSV Eindhoven1-1
LAVVV-Venlo0-2
WHRKC Waalwijk2-0
Jong AZ AlkmaarWHHelmond Sport5-4
DAVVV-Venlo4-4
LHFC Den Bosch0-1
WHFC Volendam4-1
DAJong PSV Eindhoven1-1
About this match
**Roda's riding a wave, but Jong AZ just delivered a thriller** — this is peak Eerste Divisie chaos where form can mean nothing and a 5-4 scoreline is basically a Tuesday. 🔥
Roda's been sharp on the road (wins at Almere and Utrecht), while Jong AZ's last two games have been bonkers goal-fests (5-4, then 4-4). Both teams can score but neither looks locked down defensively — this could get messy.
Key storylines:
- **Roda JC** have won 3 of their last 5 and look comfortable away from home
- **Jong AZ's** high-octane attacking is real, but they're conceding like a sieve lately
- Expect end-to-end chaos; neither defense is exactly championship material
Expected lineups:
- **Roda JC Kerkrade**: Cavazzoni, Bakis, Tóth, Bakker, Boon, Tahinci
- **Jong AZ Alkmaar**: Martens, Kaars, Beelen, Mijnans, Musampa, Clauss
Prediction:
**2-2** — too much firepower on both ends to pick a winner cleanly; a draw feels like the safe lean. ⚽
Where to watch
ESPN 3
Match facts
Kickoff
30 Oct, 19:00 UTC
Competition
Eerste Divisie
Roda JC Kerkrade
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1
Jong AZ Alkmaar
1
J. Treichel
6.2
3
M. Tol
7.0
33
D. Van Den Buijs
7.0
15
L. Beerten
6.8
25
B. Marsman
↑ 89'
8
J. Mensah
6.5
↑ 80'
4
J. Nisbet
7.2
14
X. v. d. Berg
↑ 89'
20
M. Bentoumi
6.5
↑ 80'
26
J. Sleegers
6.4
↑ 30'
9
A. van den Hurk
8.0
1
R. J. Owusu-Oduro
6.1
2
J. Zwart
6.2
3
M. Menu
6.3
4
F. Elkjær Andersen
7.3
5
K. Inge
7.1
8
R. Robbemond
7.7
15
J. Esajas
6.7
↑ 76'
14
R. Atikallah
6.7
↑ 77'
20
B. Budko
6.7
↑ 57'
19
S. Simons
6.0
↑ 46'
17
M. Roede
6.6
↑ 77'
Substitutes
28GJ. v. Damme
21GM. Stojcevic
5DK. Jansen↓ 89'7.5
27DK. V. Mieghem
2DL. Verheij
17MG. Peixoto↓ 89'8.9
6MM. Paulissen↓ 80'7.9
24MJ. Deom↓ 80'6.1
19MN. Crabu
7FC. Seedorf↓ 30'6.5
10FF. Schenten
22R. Khoums
Coach: Rob Penders
Substitutes
23GK. Schilder
16GK. Zeggen
12DK. v. Ouytsel
11MK. Toppenberg↓ 46'6.8
10MH. d. Wit↓ 57'6.7
6MJ. Sijbrands↓ 76'6.7
7MJ. Hartog↓ 77'6.3
18MR. Luijer
9FJ. Bergraaf↓ 77'6.5
Coach: Frank Peereboom
Top stats
53%Possession47%
1.35Expected goals (xG)0.43
13Total shots9
6Shots on target4
3Big chances0
8Corners4
Shots
6Shots off target1
1Blocked shots5
9Shots inside box5
4Shots outside box4
1Hit woodwork0
2Big chances scored0
1Big chances missed0
-0.65Goals prevented-0.8
Attack
27Touches in box13
45Final third entries50
1Offsides1
17Free kicks7
0Fouled in final third2
Passing
493Passes446
440Accurate passes381
12/29 (41%)Long balls22/49 (45%)
6/25 (24%)Crosses2/8 (25%)
22Throw-ins22
Duels
57Duels42
38/63 (60%)Ground duels25/63 (40%)
9/20 (45%)Aerial duels10/20 (50%)
10/18 (56%)Dribbles6/15 (40%)
4Dispossessed2
Defending
11Tackles12
82Tackles won92
6Interceptions8
23Clearances24
41Recoveries45
Discipline
7Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
4Goal kicks6
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 65% · 3.00 @ William Hill
BTTSBoth teams to score 64% · 2.50 @ Bet365
CornersOver 9.5 corners 56% · 1.60 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.33 @ 1xBet
1X2Roda to win 55% · 2.00 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 84% · 1.67 @ William Hill
Who winsRoda to win (DNB) 58% · 1.35 @ Betano
1X2Draw 23% · 2.93 @ 1xBet
1X2Jong AZ to win 23% · 3.97 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.79 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 56% · 1.70 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.70
Roda JC Kerkrade
4.00
Draw
3.90
Jong AZ Alkmaar
Double Chanceconsensus
1.22
Roda JC Kerkrade or Draw
1.18
Roda JC Kerkrade or Jong AZ Alkmaar
2.04
Draw or Jong AZ Alkmaar
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.44
Yes
2.55
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.01
Over 0.50
15.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.12
Over 1.50
5.65
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.44
Over 2.50
2.63
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.10
Over 3.50
1.69
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
3.50
Over 4.50
1.27
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.33
Roda JC Kerkrade
3.00
Jong AZ Alkmaar
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.16
Over 7.50
4.10
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.33
Over 8.50
2.85
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.58
Over 9.50
2.23
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
1.96
Over 10.50
1.78
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.44
Over 11.50
1.48
Under 11.50
1X2 (1st Half)consensus
2.20
Roda JC Kerkrade
2.50
Draw
4.20
Jong AZ Alkmaar
1X2 (2nd Half)consensus
2.00
Roda JC Kerkrade
2.87
Draw
3.90
Jong AZ Alkmaar
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Over 1.5 goals
✓
84% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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