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Abel Ferreira
Palmeiras
Atlético Mineiro
Palmeiras
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1
Atlético Mineiro
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 4 clips
Player of the match
Match events
31'
Á. Preciado · Foul
Half-time · 0–0
46'
🔁
M. Cissé ◂ Maycon
54'
⚽
V. Hugo0–1
59'
🔁
V. Roque ◂ E. Martínez
59'
🔁
F. Anderson ◂ A. Giay
65'
🔁
Heittor ◂ Paulinho
71'
🔁
I. Gomes ◂ V. Hugo
71'
🔁
A. Minda ◂ Bernard
75'
⚽
F. Anderson · assist V. Roque1–1
76'
Ruan · Foul
77'
⚽
I. Gomes · assist A. Minda1–2
78'
🔁
L. Evangelista ◂ Mauricio
78'
🔁
A. Gabriel ◂ J. Piquerez
85'
🔁
V. Hugo ◂ Á. Preciado
Full-time · 1–2
90'
🔁
Alexsander ◂ T. Pérez
90'+3
R. Lodi · Foul
Coaches
Abel FerreiraEduardo Dominguez 
Recent form
PalmeirasWACoritiba3-1
WHChapecoense1-0
WHJunior Barranquilla4-1
WAFlamengo3-0
LHCerro Porteño0-1
Atlético MineiroDHBahia1-1
WAVasco da Gama1-0
WHAcademia Puerto Cabello1-0
LACorinthians0-1
WHCienciano2-0
Where to watch
Arena Sport Premium 2
PremierePremiere 4Sportv
M+ Vamos
Arena Sport Premium 2
Canal 11
Arena Sport Premium 2
FanatizPremiere 4
Match facts
Stadium
Nubank Parque
City
Sao Paulo
Referee
Bruno Arleu de Araujo
Kickoff
26 Jul, 22:30 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie A
Highlights & clips
Palmeiras
3-4-2-1 · 4-2-3-1
Atlético Mineiro
1
C. Miguel
6.5
26
Murilo
6.5
15
G. Gómez
6.2
7
F. Anderson
7.2
↑ 59'
9
V. Roque
6.7
↑ 59'
8
A. Pereira
7.7
17
M. Freitas
7.2
56
A. Gabriel
6.9
↑ 78'
30
L. Evangelista
6.5
↑ 78'
11
J. Arias
6.9
39
Heittor
6.5
↑ 65'
22
Everson
7.0
2
Natanael
6.8
4
Ruan
6.6
13
Lyanco
6.7
6
R. Lodi
6.3
5
Alexsander
↑ 90'
39
M. Cissé
6.4
↑ 46'
14
V. Hugo
6.9
↑ 85'
17
I. Gomes
7.5
↑ 71'
27
A. Minda
6.6
↑ 71'
9
M. Cassierra
6.7
Substitutes
14GM. Lomba
21GKaique
4DA. Giay↓ 59'7.0
22DJ. Piquerez↓ 78'6.9
43DL. Benedetti
32ME. Martínez↓ 59'6.6
18MMauricio↓ 78'6.6
48MLarson
45ME. Belé
10FPaulinho↓ 65'6.5
37FRiquelme
Coach: Abel Ferreira
Substitutes
1GG. Delfim
36DK. P. Resende
3DI. Román
11MBernard↓ 71'7.1
25MT. Pérez↓ 90'6.8
8MMaycon↓ 46'6.7
23MÁ. Preciado↓ 85'6.4
19MReinier
48MJ. P. P. Lucrécio
92FDudu
29FC. C. Soares
Coach: Eduardo Dominguez
Top stats
69%Possession31%
1.92Expected goals (xG)1.82
22Total shots9
7Shots on target4
1Big chances3
10Corners5
Shots
9Shots off target4
6Blocked shots1
14Shots inside box6
8Shots outside box3
0Hit woodwork0
0Big chances scored2
1Big chances missed1
0.63Goals prevented-0.05
Attack
33Touches in box17
92Final third entries49
11Free kicks7
4Fouled in final third2
Passing
661Passes303
585Accurate passes218
11/32 (34%)Long balls20/65 (31%)
8/33 (24%)Crosses3/12 (25%)
22Throw-ins12
Duels
49Duels51
30/52 (58%)Ground duels22/52 (42%)
6/22 (27%)Aerial duels16/21 (76%)
7/10 (70%)Dribbles8/15 (53%)
4Dispossessed6
Defending
13Tackles7
77Tackles won43
9Interceptions12
16Clearances43
38Recoveries47
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow cards3
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
7Goal kicks15
1Punches3
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 70 bookmakers
Who winsPalmeiras to win (DNB) 78% · 1.24 @ betfair
1X2Palmeiras to win 59% · 1.67 @ Betano
CornersOver 9.5 corners 54% · 1.77 @ 10bet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 65% · 1.45 @ Interwetten
BTTSBTTS: No 53% · 1.86 @ betfair
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 52% · 1.84 @ msport
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 73% · 1.34 @ pmbet
1X2Draw 25% · 3.91 @ ggbet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 72% · 1.39 @ betfair
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 57% · 1.70 @ Pinnacle
1X2Atlético-MG to win 16% · 6.60 @ betfair
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.59
Palmeiras ▲
3.75
Draw ▼
5.85
Atlético Mineiro ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.13
Palmeiras or Draw
1.26
Palmeiras or Atlético Mineiro
2.27
Draw or Atlético Mineiro ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.98
Yes ▲
1.75
No ▼
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.06
Over 0.50 ▲
8.43
Under 0.50 ▼
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.31
Over 1.50 ▲
3.27
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.99
Over 2.50 ▲
1.78
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.44
Over 3.50 ▲
1.28
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.40
Over 4.50 ▼
1.11
Under 4.50 ▼
Draw No Betconsensus
1.20
Palmeiras
4.22
Atlético Mineiro ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
21.00
Under 4.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.03
Over 5.50
12.00
Under 5.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.11
Over 6.50 ▲
6.17
Under 6.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.22
Over 7.50 ▼
3.81
Under 7.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.41
Over 8.50 ▲
2.66
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.69
Over 9.50 ▼
2.03
Under 9.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.12
Over 10.50 ▼
1.64
Under 10.50 ▲
1.9 – 0.8Expected goals
1-0Most likely score
~11Expected corners
Bets worth taking in this match
Bet: Over 1.5 goals @ 1.31
we give it 72 chances out of 100 at a fair price
72%
likely
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras to win (DNB)Who wins | 78% | 78% | 1.2 | Overpriced | high |
| Palmeiras to win1X2 | 59% | 59% | 1.59 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 9.5 cornersCorners | 54% | 54% | 1.71 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 65% | 65% | 1.42 | Overpriced | medium |
| BTTS: NoBTTS | 53% | 53% | 1.75 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 2.5 goalsGoals | 52% | 53% | 1.78 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 73% | 73% | 1.28 | Overpriced | high |
| Draw1X2 | 25% | 25% | 3.75 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 72% | 71% | 1.31 | Fair | high |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 57% | 57% | 1.63 | Overpriced | low |
| Atlético-MG to win1X2 | 16% | 16% | 5.85 | Overpriced | low |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Palmeiras to win — we say 68%, they say 59%.
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 69% | +3% | Yes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 43% | +5% | Yes |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 20% | +7% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 48% | -1% | No |
| Home win | 59% | 48% | +11% | Yes |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | -2% | No |
| Away win | 16% | 25% | -9% | No |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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