Fluminense vs Bahia — live & stats

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Player of the match

Match events

11' Ignácio · Foul

42' 🔁 T. Silva ◂ J. Freytes

Half-time · 0–0

49' E. Pulga · Foul

62' 🔁 Hércules ◂ Martinelli

62' 🔁 J. Savarino ◂ L. Acosta

62' 🔁 I. Rabello ◂ T. Silva

65' 🔁 M. Araújo ◂ L. Juba

65' 🔁 E. Ribeiro ◂ Ademir

74' 🔁 D. Martins ◂ J. Lucas

75' 🔁 G. Cano ◂ Hulk

75' 🔁 K. Furquim ◂ E. Pulga

88' 🔁 W. José ◂ A. Véliz

Full-time · 0–0

-5' L. Zubeldia · Argument

Coaches

Luis Zubeldia

Rogério Ceni

Recent form

Fluminense

DAGrêmio1-1

DHRed Bull Bragantino1-1

WHBahia2-0

WHNova Iguaçu6-1

DACruzeiro1-1

Bahia

DHCorinthians1-1

DAAtlético Mineiro1-1

WHChapecoense2-0

LAFluminense0-2

WHMontevideo City Torque4-1

Where to watch

Globo Internacional

Match facts

Stadium

Estádio do Maracanã

City

Rio de Janeiro

Referee

Raphael Claus

Kickoff

30 Jul, 00:30 UTC

Competition

Brasileirão Serie A

Highlights & clips

Fluminense 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Bahia

1 Fábio 6.7 2 S. Xavier 7.6 4 Ignácio 7.2 3 T. Silva 6.7 ↑ 42' 6 Renê 7.0 16 Nonato 7.1 21 I. Rabello 7.0 ↑ 62' 17 A. Canobbio 7.3 35 Hércules 7.5 ↑ 62' 30 Y. Soteldo 6.7 14 G. Cano 6.8 ↑ 75' 1 Ronaldo 10.0 31 R. Gómez 7.0 44 M. Victor 7.9 21 S. R. Mingo 7.2 15 M. Araújo 6.5 ↑ 65' 5 N. Acevedo 7.1 11 R. Nestor 6.5 10 E. Ribeiro 6.4 ↑ 65' 63 D. Martins 6.8 ↑ 74' 57 K. Furquim 6.7 ↑ 75' 12 W. José 6.6 ↑ 88'

Substitutes

27GM. Pitaluga 22DJ. Freytes↓ 42'6.9 23DGuga 8MMartinelli↓ 62'7.5 32ML. Acosta↓ 62'7.0 11MJ. Savarino↑ 62'7.0 25MAlisson 94MOtávio 28MR. Felipe 90MK. Serna 10MGanso 7FHulk↓ 75'7.1

Coach: Luis Zubeldia

Substitutes

17GG. Herrera 46DL. Juba↓ 65'7.2 43DL. Gustavo 4DKanu 6MJ. Lucas↓ 74'6.7 67MW. Passos 77MR. Pablo 23MM. Sanabria 55MS. Duarte 7FAdemir↓ 65'6.6 16FE. Pulga↓ 75'6.5 9FA. Véliz↓ 88'6.2

Coach: Rogério Ceni

Top stats

58%Possession42%

2.32Expected goals (xG)0.43

24Total shots10

11Shots on target0

3Big chances0

8Corners1

Shots

11Shots off target6

2Blocked shots4

13Shots inside box4

11Shots outside box6

0Hit woodwork0

3Big chances missed0

0.0Goals prevented2.38

Attack

38Touches in box14

50Final third entries49

0Offsides3

9Free kicks7

2Fouled in final third4

Passing

528Passes387

463Accurate passes327

33/42 (79%)Long balls27/47 (57%)

11/25 (44%)Crosses0/9 (0%)

22Throw-ins14

Duels

57Duels42

32/58 (55%)Ground duels25/58 (43%)

14/23 (61%)Aerial duels9/23 (39%)

8/16 (50%)Dribbles3/14 (21%)

7Dispossessed5

Defending

16Tackles15

56Tackles won73

7Interceptions16

17Clearances24

43Recoveries56

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow cards1

Goalkeeping

0Saves10

0Big saves2

10Goal kicks11

1Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 70 bookmakers

Fluminense 55%

26%

Bahia 20%

Who winsFluminense to win (DNB) 73% · 1.33 @ betfred

CornersOver 9.5 corners 55% · 1.73 @ Bet365

1X2Fluminense to win 55% · 1.78 @ ggbet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 66% · 1.45 @ Unibet

1X2Draw 26% · 3.95 @ betfair

BTTSBoth teams to score 53% · 1.86 @ betfair

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 51% · 1.97 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 74% · 1.31 @ betfair

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 70% · 1.39 @ betfair

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle

1X2Bahia to win 20% · 5.50 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.71

Fluminense

3.67

Draw ▲

4.78

Bahia

Double Chanceconsensus

1.17

Fluminense or Draw ▼

1.26

Fluminense or Bahia

2.06

Draw or Bahia

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.77

Yes

1.96

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.05

Over 0.50 ▲

9.77

Under 0.50 ▲

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.25

Over 1.50 ▼

3.66

Under 1.50 ▲

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.84

Over 2.50

1.93

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.06

Over 3.50

1.34

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

6.08

Over 4.50 ▲

1.13

Under 4.50 ▼

Draw No Betconsensus

1.28

Fluminense

3.45

Bahia

Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus

1.01

Over 4.50

21.00

Under 4.50 ▲

Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus

1.03

Over 5.50 ▼

12.00

Under 5.50 ▲

Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus

1.09

Over 6.50 ▼

6.23

Under 6.50 ▲

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.21

Over 7.50 ▼

3.89

Under 7.50 ▼

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.39

Over 8.50 ▼

2.74

Under 8.50 ▲

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.66

Over 9.50 ▼

2.07

Under 9.50 ▼

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.08

Over 10.50 ▲

1.67

Under 10.50 ▲

Full odds via API →

1.6 – 1.0Expected goals

1-1Most likely score

~10Expected corners

Bets worth taking in this match

Bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.34

we give it 70 chances out of 100 at a fair price

70%

likely

Every market recommended rows highlighted

Our call	How likely	Bookmakers say	Their odds	Price check	Confidence
Fluminense to win (DNB)Who wins	73%	73%	1.28	Overpriced	high
Over 9.5 cornersCorners	55%	55%	1.67	Overpriced	low
Fluminense to win1X2	55%	55%	1.71	Overpriced	low
Over 8.5 cornersCorners	66%	66%	1.39	Overpriced	medium
Draw1X2	26%	26%	3.67	Overpriced	low
Both teams to scoreBTTS	53%	53%	1.77	Overpriced	low
Over 2.5 goalsGoals	51%	51%	1.84	Overpriced	low
Over 1.5 goalsGoals	74%	75%	1.25	Overpriced	high
Under 3.5 goalsGoals	70%	70%	1.34	Fair	high
Under 10.5 cornersCorners	55%	55%	1.67	Overpriced	low
Bahia to win1X2	20%	20%	4.78	Overpriced	low

Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Under 10.5 corners — we say 63%, they say 55%.

Probability vs league average

Market	This match	League avg	Diff	More likely?
Over 1.5 goals	74%	69%	+5%	Yes
Over 2.5 goals	51%	43%	+8%	Yes
Over 3.5 goals	30%	20%	+10%	Yes
Both teams to score	53%	48%	+5%	Yes
Home win	55%	48%	+7%	Yes
Draw	26%	27%	-1%	No
Away win	20%	25%	-5%	No

How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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