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Rafael Lacerda
Chapecoense
Bahia
Chapecoense
4-3-3 · 3-1-4-2
Bahia
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
235216 EUR · live
Away
16.5 · implied 6.1%
49.4%
+43.3 vs price
Draw
1.1 · implied 90.9%
27.6%
-63.3 vs price
Home
34.0 · implied 2.9%
23.0%
+20.0 vs price
Half time
2182 EUR · live
Draw
1.74 · implied 57.5%
38.2%
-19.3 vs price
Home
6.2 · implied 16.1%
35.6%
+19.5 vs price
Away
4.3 · implied 23.3%
26.1%
+2.9 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
32615 EUR · live
Over
1.25 · implied 80.0%
56.3%
-23.7 vs price
Under
4.9 · implied 20.4%
43.7%
+23.3 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
5973 EUR · live
Under
1.77 · implied 56.5%
69.2%
+12.7 vs price
Over
2.26 · implied 44.2%
30.8%
-13.4 vs price
14 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 7 clips
Player of the match
Match events
13'
⚽
A. Véliz (pen)0–1
19'
⚽
G. Augusto · assist Y. Felipe1–1
42'
⚽
Kauan1–2
Half-time · 1–2
46'
🔁
F. Rossi ◂ B. Matias
46'
🔁
Everton ◂ Heitor
46'
🔁
T. E. S. d. Oliveira ◂ K. Ramírez
48'
⚽
Marcinho · assist G. Augusto2–2
65'
⚽
N. Acevedo · assist J. Lucas2–3
66'
🔁
C. Alexandre ◂ R. Gómez
66'
🔁
Erick ◂ J. Lucas
67'
🔁
J. Guilherme ◂ L. Juba
67'
🔁
M. Sanabria ◂ K. Furquim
71'
⚽
T. E. S. d. Oliveira · assist G. Augusto3–3
78'
🔁
B. Pacheco ◂ Fernando
78'
🔁
D. Antunes ◂ Y. Felipe
83'
🔁
M. Araújo ◂ R. Nestor
84'
M. Sanabria · Foul
89'
Camilo · Foul
Full-time · 3–3
90'+2
E. Pulga · Foul
Coaches
Rafael LacerdaRogério Ceni 
Recent form
ChapecoenseLACoritiba1-2
LACruzeiro0-2
DHCruzeiro0-0
DASantos2-2
LHFlamengo0-4
BahiaDHVasco da Gama0-0
DAFluminense0-0
DHCorinthians1-1
DAAtlético Mineiro1-1
WHChapecoense2-0
Match facts
Stadium
Arena Condá
City
Chapecó
Kickoff
16 Aug, 14:00 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie A
Highlights & clips
Chapecoense
4-3-3 · 3-1-4-2
Bahia
98
Anderson
6.8
26
Everton
6.5
↑ 46'
21
Kauan
6.0
3
E. Doma
6.3
91
B. Pacheco
6.9
↑ 78'
19
D. Antunes
6.7
↑ 78'
27
Camilo
6.8
9
T. E. S. d. Oliveira
7.1
↑ 46'
29
F. Rossi
6.4
↑ 46'
10
G. Augusto
9.9
7
Marcinho
7.5
1
Ronaldo
5.6
8
C. Alexandre
6.4
↑ 66'
33
D. Duarte
6.2
21
S. R. Mingo
7.0
5
N. Acevedo
8.7
66
J. Guilherme
6.6
↑ 67'
14
Erick
6.4
↑ 66'
23
M. Sanabria
6.6
↑ 67'
15
M. Araújo
6.7
↑ 83'
9
A. Véliz
6.7
16
E. Pulga
7.2
Substitutes
30GMatheus
12DFernando↓ 78'6.1
5DHeitor↓ 46'5.5
6DMancha
25DV. Caetano
15DR. Thyere
94MK. Ramírez↓ 46'6.9
88MY. Felipe↓ 78'6.3
16MB. Matias↓ 46'6.2
70MR. Tadeu
97MÊnio
18FN. Pessoa
Coach: Rafael Lacerda
Top stats
34%Possession66%
1.25Expected goals (xG)2.43
12Total shots19
3Shots on target4
2Big chances1
3Corners5
Shots
4Shots off target11
5Blocked shots4
9Shots inside box12
3Shots outside box7
0Hit woodwork0
2Big chances scored1
-1.47Goals prevented-1.83
Attack
25Touches in box26
35Final third entries55
2Offsides0
9Free kicks15
1Fouled in final third4
Passing
284Passes564
229Accurate passes515
23/51 (45%)Long balls17/35 (49%)
6/19 (32%)Crosses7/26 (27%)
20Throw-ins11
Duels
47Duels53
33/74 (45%)Ground duels41/74 (55%)
10/17 (59%)Aerial duels7/17 (41%)
4/8 (50%)Dribbles15/30 (50%)
7Dispossessed5
Defending
20Tackles11
45Tackles won73
7Interceptions8
20Clearances17
37Recoveries41
Discipline
16Fouls9
1Yellow cards2
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
1Big saves0
14Goal kicks11
1Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 67 bookmakers
Who winsBahia to win (DNB) 63% · 1.60 @ merkurxtip
1X2Bahia to win 46% · 2.55 @ fonbet
CornersOver 9.5 corners 57% · 1.67 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 68% · 1.38 @ Bwin
1X2Draw 28% · 2.65 @ efbet.net
BTTSBoth teams to score 54% · 1.83 @ betfair
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 50% · 1.10 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 72% · 1.02 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 73% · 1.35 @ betfair
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 54% · 1.85 @ Interwetten
1X2Chapecoense to win 27% · 3.83 @ efbet.net
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.43
Chapecoense
3.29
Draw
2.09
Bahia
Double Chanceconsensus
1.68
Chapecoense or Draw
1.31
Chapecoense or Bahia
1.29
Draw or Bahia
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.73
Yes
2.00
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.05
Over 0.50
9.33
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.28
Over 1.50
3.43
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.92
Over 2.50
1.83
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.26
Over 3.50
1.31
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.50
Over 4.50 ▲
1.12
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.44
Chapecoense
1.50
Bahia
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
21.00
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.02
Over 5.50
12.00
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.09
Over 6.50
6.67
Under 6.50
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.20
Over 7.50
3.80
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.33
Over 8.50 ▼
3.02
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.59
Over 9.50
2.21
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
1.93
Over 10.50 ▼
1.78
Under 10.50 ▲
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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