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Rafael Guanaes
Mirassol
Palmeiras
Mirassol
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Palmeiras
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
980485 EUR · live
Away
70.0 · implied 1.4%
44.2%
+42.7 vs price
Home
26.0 · implied 3.8%
41.4%
+37.6 vs price
Draw
1.06 · implied 94.3%
14.4%
-79.9 vs price
Half time
671 EUR
Home
4.6 · implied 21.7%
62.9%
+41.1 vs price
Draw
2.28 · implied 43.9%
21.5%
-22.4 vs price
Away
2.9 · implied 34.5%
15.5%
-19.0 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
248456 EUR · live
Under
1.05 · implied 95.2%
84.0%
-11.2 vs price
Over
21.0 · implied 4.8%
16.0%
+11.2 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
395 EUR
Over
9.0 · implied 11.1%
52.4%
+41.3 vs price
Under
1.11 · implied 90.1%
47.4%
-42.7 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 3 clips
Player of the match
Match events
27'
A. Ferreira · Argument
Half-time · 0–0
50'
⚽
Eduardo · assist Igor Formiga1–0
69'
🔁
Japa ◂ N. Moura
70'
🔁
Khellven ◂ F. Anderson
70'
🔁
L. Evangelista ◂ V. Roque
70'
🔁
G. Cazonatti ◂ Eduardo
75'
⚽
Mauricio · assist G. Gómez1–1
76'
🔁
C. Eduardo ◂ G. Silva
79'
🔁
A. Luis ◂ B. Santos
79'
🔁
Fernandinho ◂ Alesson
83'
VAR
Penalty not given after review · Fernandinho
85'
Denilson · Foul
87'
🔁
Heittor ◂ Mauricio
Full-time · 1–1
90'
N. Moura · Argument
90'+6
A. Gabriel · Foul
90'+8
A. Gabriel · Foul
Coaches
Rafael GuanaesAbel Ferreira 
Recent form
MirassolDASantos1-1
DALDU0-0
LHFlamengo1-5
DHLDU1-1
LACruzeiro1-3
PalmeirasWHSantos3-0
WHVasco da Gama4-1
WACerro Porteño1-0
LAFluminense2-3
DHCerro Porteño1-1
Where to watch
Prime Video
Arena Sport Premium 2
Prime Video
Prime Video
DAZNSportdigital FUSSBALLSportdigital+
Prime Video
Premier Sports 2 HD
Premier Sports 2 HD
Arena Sport Premium 2
Canal 11
Arena Sport Premium 2
Prime Video
Match facts
Stadium
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
City
Mirassol
Kickoff
30 Aug, 21:30 UTC
Competition
Brasileirão Serie A
Highlights & clips
Mirassol
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Palmeiras
22
Walter
7.9
32
Igor Formiga
6.6
34
J. Victor
7.5
3
W. Machado
7.0
6
Reinaldo
7.0
27
Denilson
7.2
5
Japa
6.5
↑ 69'
96
C. Eduardo
6.8
↑ 76'
55
G. Cazonatti
6.5
↑ 70'
17
Fernandinho
6.6
↑ 79'
9
A. Luis
6.4
↑ 79'
1
C. Miguel
7.9
4
A. Giay
6.6
15
G. Gómez
7.2
26
Murilo
7.0
39
Heittor
6.5
↑ 87'
17
M. Freitas
7.0
8
A. Pereira
7.0
56
A. Gabriel
6.5
42
J. López
7.3
12
Khellven
6.7
↑ 70'
30
L. Evangelista
6.8
↑ 70'
Substitutes
23GA. Muralha
44DGabriel
18DElias
2DL. Oliveira
12DV. Luis
33MEduardo↓ 70'8.0
19MG. Silva↓ 76'7.3
25MN. Moura↓ 69'7.1
7MShaylon
10MChico
77FAlesson↓ 79'6.5
30FB. Santos↓ 79'6.3
Coach: Rafael Guanaes
Substitutes
14GM. Lomba
66DA. Lucas
3DB. Fuchs
18MMauricio↓ 87'7.2
7MF. Anderson↓ 70'6.8
50ML. F. Pacheco
48MLarson
45ME. Belé
32ME. Martínez
37MRiquelme
9FV. Roque↓ 70'6.4
29FM. C. Bilong
Coach: Abel Ferreira
Top stats
48%Possession52%
0.95Expected goals (xG)1.54
11Total shots14
5Shots on target3
3Big chances3
3Corners4
Shots
5Shots off target7
1Blocked shots4
7Shots inside box11
4Shots outside box3
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored1
2Big chances missed2
0.73Goals prevented1.53
Attack
23Touches in box25
60Final third entries67
2Offsides0
11Free kicks15
2Fouled in final third3
Passing
422Passes467
371Accurate passes378
25/42 (60%)Long balls29/61 (48%)
8/25 (32%)Crosses5/23 (22%)
18Throw-ins21
Duels
51Duels49
31/66 (47%)Ground duels35/66 (53%)
17/28 (61%)Aerial duels11/28 (39%)
8/13 (62%)Dribbles8/9 (89%)
8Dispossessed12
Defending
13Tackles13
62Tackles won77
11Interceptions8
36Clearances20
47Recoveries38
Discipline
15Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
7Goal kicks11
1Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 43 bookmakers
Who winsPalmeiras to win (DNB) 67% · 1.47 @ forbet
1X2Palmeiras to win 45% · 2.45 @ 888Sport
CornersOver 9.5 corners 57% · 1.59 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 68% · 1.29 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 53% · 1.15 @ 10bet
1X2Draw 28% · 2.45 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 74% · 1.03 @ Bet365
BTTSBoth teams to score 52% · 3.50 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 2.20 @ 10bet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 54% · 1.92 @ Unibet
1X2Mirassol to win 26% · 4.10 @ betcity
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.91
Mirassol ▲
3.28
Draw
1.93
Palmeiras
Double Chanceconsensus
1.78
Mirassol or Draw
1.31
Mirassol or Palmeiras
1.23
Draw or Palmeiras
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.94
Yes ▼
1.77
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
3.80
YES
1.22
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
2.62
YES
1.42
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
6.12
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
3.50
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.05
Over 0.50
9.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.37
Over 1.50
2.87
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.17
Over 2.50
1.64
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.92
Over 3.50 ▼
1.22
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
7.82
Over 4.50
1.06
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.78
Mirassol
1.39
Palmeiras
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.14
Over 7.50
4.60
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.29
Over 8.50
3.20
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.52
Over 9.50
2.31
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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