Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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**Coritiba are rolling and Mirassol are stuck in neutral — this has blowout written all over it.** 🔴 The hosts just took down Corinthians at home while the visitors are winless in five, managing only draws against Palmeiras and Santos.
Coritiba's form is **genuinely dangerous** right now (3W-1D-1L), and they've got the head-to-head edge too. Mirassol's injury pile isn't helping — missing E. Carioca, J. Aldo, and Negueba — but honestly, form matters more here. The Curitiba crowd should be buzzing.
Key storylines:
- **Coritiba's attack has teeth**: Fabinho and P. Rocha linking with J. Lavega behind them should carve up a leaky Mirassol defence
- **Mirassol's stalemate curse continues**: Three draws in their last five tells you everything about their lack of conviction
- **Home fortress advantage**: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira has been a fortress for the hosts this stretch
Expected lineups:
- **Coritiba**: Pedro Morisco, Bruno Melo, T. Santos, J. Maranhão, S. Gomez, J. Lavega, Josué, Fabinho, P. Rocha
- **Mirassol**: Walter, Reinaldo, J. Victor, W. Machado, Denilson, N. Moura, Fernandinho, Eduardo, G. Silva, B. Santos
Prediction:
**Coritiba 2–0 Mirassol**. Hosts lean on home form and offensive spark to dispatch a toothless visitor. 💪
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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