Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Athletico's stumbling at home meets Bahia's hot streak** — the locals have drawn their last two at the Arena da Baixada, while the visitors are on a four-game winning run. 🔥
Athletico are leaky in defence (3-3, 1-3 recent scorelines), but Bahia won't be intimidated. The visitors have breezed past stronger opposition lately, and the head-to-head leans Athletico's way historically — yet form suggests this could get spicy.
Key storylines:
- **Athletico** missing key defensive reinforcements (Benavídez, Claudinho) just when they need solidity
- **Bahia's** E. Pulga and Ademir have been clinical up front; Athletico's backline will be tested early
- **Home advantage** under pressure — Athletico can't afford another stalemate here
Expected lineups:
- **Athletico**: Santos, L. Esquivel, J. F. Aguirre, A. Dias, Gilberto, S. Mendoza, Jádson, L. Gustavo, R. P. Nepomuceno, K. C. Vargas
- **Bahia**: Ronaldo, L. Juba, D. Duarte, M. Victor, R. Gómez, Erick, N. Acevedo, E. Pulga, A. Véliz, Ademir
Prediction:
**Athletico 2–1 Bahia** — Athletico edge at home despite recent wobbles, but expect a tight contest. Bahia's form is real, but the Arena da Baixada usually favours the locals.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
Report a data issue
Spotted something wrong on this match? Tell us what and we'll fix it.