Bahia 1-0 Mirassol: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 11, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Bahia 1-0 Mirassol.

90+7'

Reinaldo

Penalty missed! Reinaldo (Mirassol), off target.

90+4'

A. Luis

VAR: no penalty for Mirassol.

90+3'

N. Moura

Yellow card for N. Moura (Mirassol) for foul.

90+3'

Reinaldo

Attempt blocked. Reinaldo (Mirassol), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

90+1'

A. Luis

Attempt missed. A. Luis (Mirassol), header from a set piece. xG 0.01.

90'

6 minutes of added time.

90'

Ademir

Attempt missed. Ademir (Bahia), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.44.

87'

A. Véliz

Substitution, Bahia: W. José comes on for A. Véliz.

86'

A. Véliz

Attempt missed. A. Véliz (Bahia), header. xG 0.09.

86'

Ademir

Attempt blocked. Ademir (Bahia), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

78'

C. Eduardo

Yellow card for C. Eduardo (Mirassol) for foul.

75'

D. Duarte

Attempt missed. D. Duarte (Bahia), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

74'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

73'

Denilson

Substitution, Mirassol: C. Eduardo comes on for Denilson.

73'

R. Nestor

Substitution, Bahia: E. Ribeiro comes on for R. Nestor.

72'

C. Olivera

Substitution, Bahia: Ademir comes on for C. Olivera.

69'

E. Pulga

Attempt blocked. E. Pulga (Bahia), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

69'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

68'

A. Luis

Attempt missed. A. Luis (Mirassol), header. xG 0.10.

67'

B. Santos

Substitution, Mirassol: A. Luis comes on for B. Santos.

64'

C. Olivera

Attempt saved. C. Olivera (Bahia), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.47.

63'

J. Lucas

Yellow card for J. Lucas (Bahia) for foul.

62'

E. Carioca

Attempt blocked. E. Carioca (Mirassol), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.07.

59'

C. Alexandre

Substitution, Bahia: Erick comes on for C. Alexandre.

59'

M. Victor

Substitution, Bahia: R. Gómez comes on for M. Victor.

55'

E. Carioca

Attempt missed. E. Carioca (Mirassol), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

54'

Mirassol

Corner, Mirassol.

52'

R. Nestor

Attempt missed. R. Nestor (Bahia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

48'

E. Carioca

Attempt saved. E. Carioca (Mirassol), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

48'

B. Santos

Attempt missed. B. Santos (Mirassol), header. xG 0.63.

46'

Chico

Substitution, Mirassol: Eduardo comes on for Chico.

46'

Alesson

Substitution, Mirassol: E. Carioca comes on for Alesson.

46'

G. Silva

Substitution, Mirassol: Shaylon comes on for G. Silva.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Bahia 1-0 Mirassol.

45+6'

A. Véliz

Attempt missed. A. Véliz (Bahia), header. xG 0.10.

45'

6 minutes of added time.

45'

A. Véliz

Attempt missed. A. Véliz (Bahia), header from a corner. xG 0.11.

45'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

44'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

41'

Mirassol

Corner, Mirassol.

38'

L. Juba

Goal! Bahia 1-0 Mirassol. L. Juba (Bahia) converts the penalty.

36'

Walter

Yellow card for Walter (Mirassol) for argument.

35'

Chico

Yellow card for Chico (Mirassol).

34'

C. Olivera

VAR: no penalty for Bahia.

29'

Reinaldo

Attempt blocked. Reinaldo (Mirassol), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

29'

Denilson

Attempt saved. Denilson (Mirassol), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.

26'

R. Nestor

Attempt missed. R. Nestor (Bahia), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.

25'

L. Juba

Attempt missed. L. Juba (Bahia), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

23'

J. Lucas

Off the woodwork! J. Lucas (Bahia), header. xG 0.70.

15'

D. Duarte

Attempt missed. D. Duarte (Bahia), header from a corner. xG 0.07.

15'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

11'

M. Victor

VAR check complete: the goal for Bahia stands.

11'

Bahia

Offside, Bahia.

10'

M. Moreno

Attempt missed. M. Moreno (Bahia), header. xG 0.05.

9'

Bahia

Corner, Bahia.

5'

E. Pulga

Attempt missed. E. Pulga (Bahia), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.14.

1'

Kick-off: Bahia vs Mirassol.

Where the money is

348950 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 6 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 144951 EUR · live

Home 1.32 · implied 75.8%

88.6%

+12.9 vs price

Away 21.0 · implied 4.8%

7.5%

+2.7 vs price

Draw 5.2 · implied 19.2%

3.9%

-15.3 vs price

Half time 1707 EUR · live

Home 1.06 · implied 94.3%

61.8%

-32.6 vs price

Draw 12.0 · implied 8.3%

24.3%

+15.9 vs price

Away 9.0 · implied 11.1%

13.9%

+2.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 50790 EUR · live

Under 1.53 · implied 65.4%

63.3%

-2.0 vs price

Over 2.86 · implied 35.0%

36.7%

+1.7 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 5409 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

96.1%

-3.0 vs price

Over 48.0 · implied 2.1%

3.9%

+1.8 vs price

14 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

11' VAR Goal not given after review · M. Victor

34' VAR Penalty check · C. Olivera

35' Chico

36' Walter · Argument

38' ⚽ L. Juba (pen)1–0

Half-time · 1–0

46' 🔁 Shaylon ◂ G. Silva

46' 🔁 E. Carioca ◂ Alesson

46' 🔁 Eduardo ◂ Chico

59' 🔁 R. Gómez ◂ M. Victor

59' 🔁 Erick ◂ C. Alexandre

63' J. Lucas · Foul

67' 🔁 A. Luis ◂ B. Santos

72' 🔁 Ademir ◂ C. Olivera

73' 🔁 E. Ribeiro ◂ R. Nestor

73' 🔁 C. Eduardo ◂ Denilson

78' C. Eduardo · Foul

87' 🔁 W. José ◂ A. Véliz

Full-time · 1–0

90'⁺³ N. Moura · Foul

90'⁺⁴ VAR Penalty check · A. Luis

90'⁺⁷ 🚫 Penalty missed · Reinaldo

Coaches

Rogério Ceni

Rafael Guanaes

Recent form

Bahia

LAPalmeiras0-1

LAAthletico1-2

WHRemo2-1

WARed Bull Bragantino3-2

WHInternacional3-2

Mirassol

DARed Bull Bragantino1-1

WAUberlândia EC4-0

WHBotafogo2-0

DHVitória2-2

WACoritiba2-1

About this match

**Bahia host Mirassol in a heavyweight clash at the Fonte Nova, and the hosts are cooking right now** — four wins in their last five leaves zero room for doubt here 🔥

Bahia's form is genuinely dangerous, while Mirassol have been solid but just can't seem to find that killer gear. Missing key defensive bodies, Salvador's fortress mentality at home should be the decider.

Key storylines:

- **Bahia's attacking trio** of E. Pulga, A. Véliz, and Ademir have been clinical in recent wins, and Mirassol's backline will have their hands full without J. Victor
- **Mirassol's defensive resilience** tested hard — W. Machado and L. Oliveira will need to organize tight with Denilson holding the midfield
- **Home advantage matters**: Bahia's last five at the Fonte Nova read like a highlight reel

Expected lineups:

- **Bahia**: Ronaldo, L. Juba, D. Duarte, M. Victor, R. Gómez, Erick, N. Acevedo, E. Pulga, A. Véliz, Ademir
- **Mirassol**: Walter, Reinaldo, W. Machado, L. Oliveira, Igor Formiga, Denilson, N. Moura, Eduardo, G. Silva, B. Santos

Prediction:

**Bahia 2–0 Mirassol**

The Tricolor lean hard on this one — superior form, home field, and firepower should overwhelm a stretched Mirassol setup.

Where to watch

Arena Sport Premium 2

Match facts

Stadium

Arena Fonte Nova

City

Salvador

Referee

Ramon Abatti Abel

4.81 yellows/match · 53 matches

Kickoff

11 Oct, 22:30 UTC

Competition

Brasileirão Serie A

Highlights & clips

Bahia 4-3-3 · 4-3-3 Mirassol

1 Ronaldo 7.2 31 R. Gómez 7.3 ↑ 59' 33 D. Duarte 8.2 3 M. Moreno 7.5 46 L. Juba 8.6 6 J. Lucas 6.3 14 Erick 6.8 ↑ 59' 10 E. Ribeiro 6.9 ↑ 73' 7 Ademir 6.5 ↑ 72' 12 W. José 6.3 ↑ 87' 16 E. Pulga 7.2 22 Walter 7.0 32 Igor Formiga 7.5 2 L. Oliveira 6.5 3 W. Machado 7.7 6 Reinaldo 6.5 96 C. Eduardo 6.4 ↑ 73' 25 N. Moura 7.2 33 Eduardo 7.0 ↑ 46' 7 Shaylon 6.8 ↑ 46' 9 A. Luis 7.1 ↑ 67' 95 E. Carioca 6.0 ↑ 46'

Substitutes

17GG. Herrera 44DM. Victor↓ 59'7.5 4DKanu 66DJ. Guilherme 11MR. Nestor↓ 73'7.4 8MC. Alexandre↓ 59'6.9 18ML. López 15MM. Araújo 99FC. Olivera↓ 72'7.1 9FA. Véliz↓ 87'5.9 23FM. Sanabria 27FEveraldo

Coach: Rogério Ceni

Substitutes

90GThomazella 44DGabriel 12DV. Luis 20DD. Borges 27MDenilson↓ 73'7.1 19MG. Silva↓ 46'6.5 10MChico↓ 46'6.4 80MWallisson Luiz 17MFernandinho 77FAlesson↓ 46'6.5 30FB. Santos↓ 67'5.8 99FZ. Roberto

Coach: Rafael Guanaes

Top stats

53%Possession47%

3.15Expected goals (xG)1.82

16Total shots10

2Shots on target2

4Big chances2

6Corners2

Shots

12Shots off target5

2Blocked shots3

12Shots inside box8

4Shots outside box2

1Hit woodwork0

1Big chances scored0

3Big chances missed2

0.17Goals prevented0.06

Attack

27Touches in box18

51Final third entries49

1Offsides1

15Free kicks12

3Fouled in final third6

Passing

510Passes457

456Accurate passes402

31/48 (65%)Long balls14/29 (48%)

9/25 (36%)Crosses4/19 (21%)

10Throw-ins22

Duels

53Duels47

40/70 (57%)Ground duels30/70 (43%)

12/28 (43%)Aerial duels16/28 (57%)

7/13 (54%)Dribbles9/17 (53%)

5Dispossessed12

Defending

20Tackles11

80Tackles won55

9Interceptions6

20Clearances21

41Recoveries42

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0Big saves1

10Goal kicks8

1Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Bahia 55%

24%

Mirassol 21%

CornersOver 9.5 corners 59% · 1.49 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 70% · 1.20 @ 1xBet

Who winsBahia to win (DNB) 70% · 1.30 @ 888Sport

1X2Bahia to win 55% · 2.05 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 3.90 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 57% · 3.10 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.92 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 24% · 2.66 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 67% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle

1X2Mirassol to win 21% · 4.33 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 51% · 2.07 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.70

Bahia

3.90

Draw

4.54

Mirassol

Double Chanceconsensus

1.18

Bahia or Draw

1.23

Bahia or Mirassol

2.14

Draw or Mirassol

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.62

Yes

2.18

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

8.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.03

Over 0.50

13.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.33

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.67

Over 2.50

2.15

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.70

Over 3.50

1.44

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.00

Over 4.50

1.17

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.27

Bahia

3.40

Mirassol

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.10

Over 7.50

4.98

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.20

Over 8.50

3.61

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.38

Over 9.50

2.58

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

1.69

Over 10.50

2.05

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.05

Over 11.50

1.66

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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