Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 12, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo.

90+4'

Renato Marques

Attempt blocked. Renato Marques (Coritiba), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

90+4'

Coritiba

Offside, Coritiba.

90+2'

Coritiba

Corner, Coritiba.

90+2'

Renato Marques

Attempt blocked. Renato Marques (Coritiba), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

90+2'

N. Fonseca

Attempt blocked. N. Fonseca (Coritiba), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

90'

6 minutes of added time.

88'

R. Gelado

Yellow card for R. Gelado (Coritiba) for foul.

86'

N. Ferraresi

Attempt saved. N. Ferraresi (Botafogo), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

86'

Paulinho

Attempt missed. Paulinho (Botafogo), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

86'

M. Martins

Substitution, Botafogo: Paulinho comes on for M. Martins.

86'

Botafogo

Corner, Botafogo.

84'

Josué

Substitution, Coritiba: Renato Marques comes on for Josué.

83'

T. Soares

Attempt missed. T. Soares (Botafogo), header from a set piece. xG 0.04.

79'

R. Gelado

Attempt missed. R. Gelado (Coritiba), header. xG 0.17.

77'

A. Cabral

Substitution, Botafogo: T. Soares comes on for A. Cabral.

77'

C. Medina

Substitution, Botafogo: Á. Montoro comes on for C. Medina.

74'

Allan

Substitution, Botafogo: J. Santos comes on for Allan.

73'

H. Ziyech

Substitution, Botafogo: D. Andrade comes on for H. Ziyech.

68'

Coritiba

Offside, Coritiba.

66'

Marçal

Yellow card for Marçal (Botafogo) for argument.

66'

T. Cóser

Yellow card for T. Cóser (Coritiba) for argument.

64'

Coritiba

Corner, Coritiba.

64'

P. Rocha

Attempt saved. P. Rocha (Coritiba), right-footed shot. xG 0.19.

64'

J. Lavega

Substitution, Coritiba: B. Lopes comes on for J. Lavega.

64'

F. Jonatan

Substitution, Coritiba: R. Gelado comes on for F. Jonatan.

64'

Coritiba

Corner, Coritiba.

62'

Coritiba

Corner, Coritiba.

62'

Josué

Attempt saved. Josué (Coritiba), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

62'

S. Gomez

Attempt blocked. S. Gomez (Coritiba), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

61'

C. Medina

Attempt missed. C. Medina (Botafogo), header. xG 0.04.

60'

Coritiba

Corner, Coritiba.

57'

Botafogo

Corner, Botafogo.

56'

F. Bustos

Substitution, Coritiba: Tinga comes on for F. Bustos.

56'

T. Santos

Substitution, Coritiba: N. Fonseca comes on for T. Santos.

54'

A. Cabral

Attempt missed. A. Cabral (Botafogo), header. xG 0.12.

53'

D. Santos

Attempt blocked. D. Santos (Botafogo), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

52'

T. Santos

Yellow card for T. Santos (Coritiba) for foul.

51'

H. Ziyech

Attempt missed. H. Ziyech (Botafogo), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

50'

J. Lavega

Attempt missed. J. Lavega (Coritiba), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

49'

Coritiba

Corner, Coritiba.

48'

P. Roberto

Attempt blocked. P. Roberto (Coritiba), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

47'

Allan

Attempt saved. Allan (Botafogo), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo.

45+4'

S. Gomez

Yellow card for S. Gomez (Coritiba) for foul.

45+3'

F. Bustos

Yellow card for F. Bustos (Coritiba) for foul.

45'

7 minutes of added time.

45'

Allan

Yellow card for Allan (Botafogo) for foul.

40'

Allan

Attempt blocked. Allan (Botafogo), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

40'

D. Santos

Attempt saved. D. Santos (Botafogo), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

40'

Botafogo

Corner, Botafogo.

38'

A. Telles

Attempt missed. A. Telles (Botafogo), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

34'

D. Santos

Goal! Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo. D. Santos (Botafogo) scores, assisted by C. Medina.

34'

A. Cabral

Attempt blocked. A. Cabral (Botafogo), header. xG 0.02.

32'

A. Cabral

Attempt missed. A. Cabral (Botafogo), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

32'

H. Ziyech

Attempt missed. H. Ziyech (Botafogo), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

32'

Botafogo

Corner, Botafogo.

26'

D. Santos

VAR check complete: the goal for Botafogo stands.

22'

T. Cóser

Attempt missed. T. Cóser (Coritiba), header from a corner. xG 0.20.

22'

Marçal

Goal! Coritiba 1-0 Botafogo. Own goal by Marçal.

21'

Josué

Attempt blocked. Josué (Coritiba), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

21'

P. Roberto

Attempt saved. P. Roberto (Coritiba), header. xG 0.05.

21'

Coritiba

Corner, Coritiba.

20'

P. Roberto

Attempt missed. P. Roberto (Coritiba), right-footed shot. xG 0.16.

17'

Coritiba

Corner, Coritiba.

15'

C. Medina

Attempt missed. C. Medina (Botafogo), header. xG 0.09.

11'

M. Martins

Attempt saved. M. Martins (Botafogo), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

4'

H. Ziyech

Attempt missed. H. Ziyech (Botafogo), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

2'

Botafogo

Corner, Botafogo.

1'

Botafogo

Corner, Botafogo.

1'

Botafogo

Corner, Botafogo.

1'

Kick-off: Coritiba vs Botafogo.

Where the money is

253687 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 120403 EUR · live

Home 34.0 · implied 2.9%

44.0%

+41.1 vs price

Away 29.0 · implied 3.4%

32.3%

+28.8 vs price

Draw 1.06 · implied 94.3%

23.7%

-70.6 vs price

Half time 321 EUR · live

Draw 1.98 · implied 50.5%

96.4%

+45.9 vs price

Home 4.0 · implied 25.0%

1.6%

-23.4 vs price

Away 3.45 · implied 29.0%

1.6%

-27.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 73923 EUR · live

Under 1.05 · implied 95.2%

67.2%

-28.0 vs price

Over 18.0 · implied 5.6%

32.8%

+27.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 2636 EUR · live

Under 1.05 · implied 95.2%

97.2%

+1.9 vs price

Over 21.0 · implied 4.8%

2.8%

-2.0 vs price

14 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

22' ⚽ Marçal1–0

26' VAR Goal not given after review · D. Santos

34' ⚽ D. Santos · assist C. Medina1–1

Half-time · 1–1

45' Allan · Foul

45'⁺³ F. Bustos · Foul

45'⁺⁴ S. Gomez · Foul

52' T. Santos · Foul

56' 🔁 N. Fonseca ◂ T. Santos

56' 🔁 Tinga ◂ F. Bustos

64' 🔁 R. Gelado ◂ F. Jonatan

64' 🔁 B. Lopes ◂ J. Lavega

66' T. Cóser · Argument

66' Marçal · Argument

73' 🔁 D. Andrade ◂ H. Ziyech

74' 🔁 J. Santos ◂ Allan

77' 🔁 Á. Montoro ◂ C. Medina

77' 🔁 T. Soares ◂ A. Cabral

84' 🔁 Renato Marques ◂ Josué

86' 🔁 Paulinho ◂ M. Martins

88' R. Gelado · Foul

Full-time · 1–1

Coaches

Fernando Seabra

Tite

Recent form

Coritiba

LAFluminense0-4

LAVasco da Gama0-5

DHAthletico3-3

LHMirassol1-2

WARemo3-2

Botafogo

LHVasco da Gama1-2

LAMirassol0-2

WHGrêmio3-2

DHRed Bull Bragantino1-1

DHPalmeiras0-0

About this match

**Botafogo come in as massive favorites here**, but Coritiba's home fortress and recent mid-table chaos could spring a surprise. 🔥

Coritiba are leaking goals for fun (nine conceded in their last two away trips), while Botafogo have won 18 of their last 30 H2H matchups — a stunning record that speaks volumes about the quality gap.

Key storylines:

- **Botafogo's attacking prowess** will face a Coritiba defense missing key personnel and hemorrhaging chances at an alarming rate
- **Fabinho and Josué** need to spark something creative up top for the hosts, who haven't found rhythm in weeks
- **Vitinho and Huguinho** anchor Botafogo's midfield, giving them control odds Coritiba will struggle to contest

Expected lineups:

- **Coritiba**: P. Rangel, R. Moledo, F. Jonatan, Richard, F. Bustos, S. Gomez, B. Lopes, P. Rocha, Josué, P. Roberto, Fabinho
- **Botafogo**: G. Batista, A. Telles, N. Ferraresi, L. Monzón, Vitinho, D. Santos, Huguinho, M. Martins, C. Medina, J. Santos, A. Cabral

Prediction:

**Botafogo 2–0 Coritiba.** The visitors' pedigree and ruthless streak at this fixture is too much for a depleted home side to weather.

Where to watch

Prime Video

Match facts

Stadium

Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

City

Curitiba

Referee

Matheus Delgado Candançan

3.98 yellows/match · 48 matches

Kickoff

12 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Competition

Brasileirão Serie A

Highlights & clips

Coritiba 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Botafogo

1 Pedro Morisco 6.6 2 Tinga 6.9 ↑ 56' 23 T. Cóser 7.3 55 J. Maranhão 6.9 66 R. Gelado 6.7 ↑ 64' 5 N. Fonseca 6.9 ↑ 56' 19 S. Gomez 6.3 32 P. Rocha 6.7 78 Renato Marques 6.7 ↑ 84' 77 B. Lopes 7.0 ↑ 64' 18 P. Roberto 6.9 12 G. Batista 7.8 2 Vitinho 6.9 5 N. Ferraresi 7.5 21 Marçal 7.4 13 A. Telles 7.3 8 D. Santos 7.7 7 J. Santos 6.4 ↑ 74' 91 D. Andrade 6.8 ↑ 73' 10 Á. Montoro 6.6 ↑ 77' 29 Paulinho 6.6 ↑ 86' 9 T. Soares 6.6 ↑ 77'

Top stats

43%Possession57%

1.08Expected goals (xG)0.87

13Total shots18

3Shots on target5

8Corners7

Shots

4Shots off target10

6Blocked shots3

8Shots inside box11

5Shots outside box7

-0.42Goals prevented-0.09

Attack

18Touches in box36

44Final third entries52

2Offsides0

13Free kicks16

0Fouled in final third2

Passing

342Passes440

276Accurate passes385

27/53 (51%)Long balls21/34 (62%)

6/27 (22%)Crosses9/40 (23%)

15Throw-ins30

Duels

46Duels54

31/64 (48%)Ground duels33/64 (52%)

12/29 (41%)Aerial duels17/29 (59%)

7/14 (50%)Dribbles8/13 (62%)

2Dispossessed6

Defending

11Tackles9

82Tackles won44

8Interceptions6

36Clearances32

36Recoveries38

Discipline

16Fouls13

5Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

1Big saves2

15Goal kicks5

2Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Coritiba 36%

27%

Botafogo 37%

Who winsBotafogo to win (DNB) 51% · 1.85 @ 888Sport

CornersOver 9.5 corners 53% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 65% · 1.38 @ 1xBet

BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.84 @ 1xBet

1X2Botafogo to win 37% · 2.75 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 3.80 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 27% · 2.60 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 76% · 1.91 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 69% · 1.49 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 58% · 1.70 @ betfair

1X2Coritiba to win 36% · 2.88 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.63

Coritiba

3.50

Draw

2.50

Botafogo

Double Chanceconsensus

1.46

Coritiba or Draw

1.30

Coritiba or Botafogo

1.44

Draw or Botafogo

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.53

Yes

2.38

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

4.75

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.60

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

11.40

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.33

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.70

Over 2.50

2.13

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.69

Over 3.50

1.40

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.00

Over 4.50

1.14

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.91

Coritiba

1.78

Botafogo

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.18

Over 7.50

3.86

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.35

Over 8.50

2.75

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.70

Over 9.50

2.02

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.07

Over 10.50

1.65

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.50

Over 11.50

1.44

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Report a data issue