Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
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**Bahia hosts a Flamengo side absolutely stacked with injury concerns — this could be the home crowd's moment to pounce.** 🔥 The visitors have been flawless in the league (3W 2D), but they're rolling into Salvador without four key players, including attacking depth that stings.
Bahia's own form is crisp (3W in last 5), though they've wobbled away from home. Flamengo's dominance in the head-to-head (21 wins in 30) is a sobering reality check, but personnel matters — and **Flamengo are severely depleted** right now.
Key storylines:
- **Bahia's home fortress vs. Flamengo's injury crisis** — Salvador's crowd could be the X-factor when the Cariocas are stretched thin.
- **Pedro and Lino carrying Flamengo's attack alone** — with A. Lucas, Danilo, E. Araujo, and G. de Arrascaeta sidelined, the burden falls heavy on the front line.
- **Bahia's midfield balance** — J. Lucas, R. Nestor, and N. Acevedo need to control tempo and shield the backline against what's left of Flamengo's firepower.
Expected lineups:
- **Bahia**: Ronaldo, L. Juba, D. Duarte, M. Victor, R. Gómez, J. Lucas, R. Nestor, N. Acevedo, E. Pulga, A. Véliz, C. Olivera
- **Flamengo**: A. Rossi, A. Sandro, L. Ortiz, L. Pereira, G. Varela, Jorginho, E. Pulgar, S. Lino, L. Paquetá, J. Carrascal, Pedro
Prediction:
**Bahia 1–1 Flamengo.** Flamengo's pedigree keeps them level, but Bahia's home edge and Flamengo's injury list make a draw the leanest outcome.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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