Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Chapecoense are limping badly, but Fluminense aren't exactly flying either** — this is a clash of two teams clinging to different dreams in a chaotic Brasileirão. 🇧🇷
Chape have won zero of their last five with a brutal 1-4 and 0-4 hammering in recent weeks, while Flu's form is equally dodgy despite snagging a couple of wins. The head-to-head leans Chape's way historically, but neither outfit looks like they want this.
Key storylines:
- **Chapecoense** are hemorrhaging goals and missing key defensive bodies with Heitor and R. Carvalheira sidelined — Anderson's backline is under siege.
- **Fluminense's** attack led by **Hulk** and **Ganso** should have the tools to exploit a fragile Chape defense, even if their recent form is patchy.
- Injury chaos hits both squads hard, but Flu have more attacking firepower to weather the absences.
Expected lineups:
- **Chapecoense**: Anderson, B. Pacheco, E. Doma, J. Paulo, Everton, Y. Felipe, Camilo, G. Augusto, R. Tadeu, Maurício Garcez, T. E. S. d. Oliveira
- **Fluminense**: Fábio, Renê, J. Millán, T. Silva, Guga, Nonato, Hércules, Y. Soteldo, Ganso, A. Canobbio, Hulk
Prediction:
**Fluminense 2-0 Chapecoense**
Flu edge this one on balance. Chape's leaky rearguard and zero wins in five make them vulnerable at home.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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