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Match facts
Tournament
US Open, Men
Category
Grandslam
Round
Round of 128
Surface
hard
Key factors
Ranking
Carlos Alcaraz is ranked 101 places higher
Surface
Carlos Alcaraz wins +43% more on this surface
Serve
Carlos Alcaraz has the stronger first serve
Recent form
R. Safiullin 2 of last 5
L H. Grenier 1–2 L H. Hurkacz 0–2 W S. Wawrinka 2–0 W S. Ofner 2–0 L N. Djokovic 1–3C. Alcaraz 3 of last 5
L T. Machač W/O W O. Virtanen 2–0 L J. Sinner 0–2 W V. Vacherot 2–0 W A. Bublik 2–0Head to head
Win probability
R. SafiullinC. Alcaraz
92%
Model confidence
Why the model thinks so
- Ranked far higher (+101 places)
- 4 tiers above
- Dominant on this surface (86% win rate)
- More effective serve
R. Safiullin
6.00
5.00
▼
consensus price, since opening
C. Alcaraz
1.13
1.17
▲
consensus price, since opening
Match winnerdecimal
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
10bet
4.50 ▼
1.18 ▲
1xBet
6.03 ▲
1.18
888Sport
4.50 ▼
1.20 ▲
Bet365
5.00
1.17
Betsson
4.69 ▼
1.18 ▲
Betway
4.50 ▼
1.20 ▲
Bwin
4.75 ▼
1.18 ▲
Interwetten
4.50 ▼
1.20 ▲
Marathon
4.65 ▼
1.19 ▲
Novibet
4.90 ▼
1.20 ▲
SportingBet
4.75 ▼
1.18 ▲
Unibet
4.50 ▼
1.17 ▲
fonbet
4.60 ▼
1.20 ▲
Consensus
4.65 ▼
1.19 ▼
C. Alcaraz at 1.17
91%
win rate at similar odds (22 matches) · market implies 85% · value signal
O/U Games 33.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.80
1.90
Consensus
1.80
1.90
O/U Games 34.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.83 ▼
1.87
Consensus
1.83 ▼
1.87
O/U Games 36.00Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
10bet
1.80 ▼
1.95 ▲
1xBet
1.86 ▲
1.85
Marathon
1.81 ▼
1.91 ▲
Consensus
1.81 ▼
1.93 ▲
O/U Games 36.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
10bet
1.90 ▲
1.85 ▼
888Sport
1.80 ▼
1.91 ▲
Betsson
1.84
1.82
Betway
1.80
1.91
Interwetten
1.85
1.85
Marathon
1.87
1.87 ▲
Novibet
1.90 ▼
1.83 ▲
Unibet
1.86 ▲
1.84 ▼
Consensus
1.85 ▼
1.86 ▲
Games Handicap 6.00Full Match
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
10bet
1.85 ▼
1.85 ▲
1xBet
1.85 ▼
1.86 ▲
Consensus
1.85 ▼
1.85 ▲
Games Handicap 6.50Full Match
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
Betsson
1.69 ▲
2.04 ▼
Interwetten
1.70 ▲
2.05 ▼
Novibet
1.72 ▼
2.00 ▲
Consensus
1.70 ▼
2.03 ▲
Odd/Even GamesFull Match
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
10bet
2.05 ▼
1.70 ▲
1xBet
1.86
1.86
Betsson
2.04
1.70 ▲
Marathon
1.86
1.86
Novibet
2.10 ▼
1.66 ▲
Unibet
2.04
1.70 ▲
Consensus
2.00 ▲
1.74 ▼
O/U Sets 3.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
1xBet
1.73
2.02 ▲
Betsson
1.68 ▼
2.06 ▲
Betway
1.65 ▼
2.10 ▲
Marathon
1.68 ▼
2.08 ▲
Novibet
1.67 ▼
2.05 ▲
Unibet
1.72 ▲
2.04 ▼
fonbet
1.68 ▼
2.12 ▲
Consensus
1.68 ▼
2.08 ▲
Set Handicap -2.50Full Match
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
1xBet
13.00
1.00
Unibet
12.00 ▼
1.00
fonbet
11.00 ▼
1.02 ▲
Consensus
11.50 ▼
1.01
Set Handicap -1.50Full Match
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
Betsson
7.40 ▼
1.06 ▲
Interwetten
8.00
1.05
Consensus
7.70 ▼
1.06 ▲
Player O/U Games 14.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
1xBet
1.66
2.09
Betsson
1.82
1.89
Interwetten
1.80
1.90
Marathon
1.66
2.09 ▲
Novibet
1.83
1.87 ▲
Unibet
1.70 ▼
2.07 ▲
Consensus
1.70 ▼
2.07 ▲
Player O/U Games 15.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Betsson
1.89
1.81
Interwetten
1.90
1.80
Novibet
1.90 ▼
1.80 ▲
Consensus
1.90 ▼
1.80 ▲
O/U Double Faults 7.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.40
2.75
Consensus
1.40
2.75
O/U Tie Breaks 0.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.83 ▲
1.93 ▼
Consensus
1.83 ▲
1.93 ▼
Match Winner1st Set
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
10bet
2.80 ▼
1.40 ▲
1xBet
2.94 ▼
1.36
888Sport
2.75 ▼
1.40 ▲
Bet365
3.40
1.33
Betsson
2.85 ▼
1.40 ▲
Betway
3.00 ▼
1.36 ▲
Bwin
3.00 ▼
1.33 ▲
Interwetten
2.75 ▼
1.40 ▲
Marathon
2.81 ▼
1.39 ▲
Novibet
3.30 ▲
1.33 ▲
SportingBet
3.00 ▼
1.33 ▲
Unibet
2.80 ▼
1.40 ▲
fonbet
3.05 ▼
1.38
Consensus
2.96 ▼
1.37 ▲
O/U Games 6.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Unibet
1.01
23.00 ▼
Consensus
1.01
23.00 ▼
O/U Games 7.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.07 ▼
7.00 ▲
Consensus
1.07 ▼
7.00 ▲
Games Handicap -2.501st Set
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
fonbet
6.70
1.07
Consensus
6.70
1.07
Games Handicap -1.501st Set
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
Unibet
3.60 ▼
1.24 ▲
fonbet
3.90 ▼
1.20 ▲
Consensus
3.75 ▼
1.22 ▲
Games Handicap 1.501st Set
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
Betsson
2.18 ▼
1.61 ▲
Interwetten
2.20 ▼
1.60 ▲
Consensus
2.19 ▼
1.61 ▲
Odd/Even Games1st Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
1xBet
1.80 ▼
1.92 ▼
Betsson
1.99
1.73
Marathon
1.80 ▲
1.92 ▼
Novibet
1.90 ▼
1.78 ▲
Consensus
1.85 ▼
1.85 ▼
Player O/U Games 3.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
1xBet
1.48 ▲
2.46 ▼
Marathon
1.46 ▼
2.52 ▲
Consensus
1.46 ▼
2.52 ▲
Player O/U Games 14.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Betsson
1.82
1.89
Interwetten
1.80
1.90
Novibet
1.83
1.87 ▲
Consensus
1.83 ▲
1.87 ▲
Player O/U Games 15.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Betsson
1.89
1.81
Interwetten
1.90
1.80
Novibet
1.90 ▼
1.80 ▲
Consensus
1.90 ▼
1.80 ▲
Match Winner2nd Set
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
1xBet
3.14 ▼
1.32 ▲
888Sport
2.75 ▼
1.40 ▲
Betway
3.00 ▼
1.36 ▲
Bwin
3.30 ▼
1.30 ▲
Interwetten
3.05 ▼
1.33 ▲
Marathon
3.04 ▼
1.34 ▲
Novibet
3.20 ▼
1.32 ▲
SportingBet
3.30 ▼
1.30 ▲
Unibet
3.15 ▼
1.33 ▲
Consensus
3.10 ▼
1.34 ▲
O/U Games 6.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.01
11.50 ▲
Consensus
1.01
11.50 ▲
O/U Games 7.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.06 ▼
7.50 ▲
Consensus
1.06 ▼
7.50 ▲
Games Handicap 0.502nd Set
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
1xBet
3.14
1.31
Marathon
3.02 ▼
1.33
Consensus
3.02 ▼
1.33 ▲
Games Handicap 2.502nd Set
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
Novibet
1.53
2.35
Consensus
1.53
2.35
Games Handicap 6.502nd Set
Bookmaker
R. Safiullin
C. Alcaraz
Betsson
1.69 ▼
2.04 ▲
Interwetten
1.70 ▼
2.05 ▲
Novibet
1.72 ▼
2.00 ▲
Consensus
1.70 ▼
2.03 ▲
Odd/Even Games2nd Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
1xBet
1.86
1.86
Betsson
1.99
1.73
Marathon
1.86 ▼
1.86 ▲
Novibet
1.85 ▼
1.85 ▲
Consensus
1.86 ▼
1.86 ▲
Player O/U Games 4.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
1xBet
2.03 ▼
1.72 ▲
Marathon
1.97 ▼
1.76 ▲
Consensus
1.97 ▼
1.76 ▲
Player O/U Games 14.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Betsson
1.82
1.89
Interwetten
1.80
1.90
Novibet
1.83
1.87 ▲
Consensus
1.83 ▲
1.87 ▲
Player O/U Games 15.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Betsson
1.89
1.81
Interwetten
1.90
1.80
Novibet
1.90 ▼
1.80 ▲
Consensus
1.90 ▼
1.80 ▲