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Match facts
Tournament
US Open, Men
Category
Grandslam
Round
Round of 64
Surface
hard
Key factors
Ranking
Frances Tiafoe is ranked 145 places higher
Form
Rei Sakamoto comes in with better momentum
Recent form
R. Sakamoto 4 of last 5
W A. Vukić 3–2 W K. Nishikori 2–0 W A. Muller 2–0 W J. Clarke 2–1 L L. Van Assche 1–2F. Tiafoe 4 of last 5
W M. Damm Jr 3–2 L A. Fils 1–2 W B. Nakashima 2–0 W L. Musetti 2–0 W F. Auger-Aliassime 2–0Win probability
R. SakamotoF. Tiafoe
75%
Model confidence
Why the model thinks so
- Ranked far higher (+145 places)
- 3 tiers above
R. Sakamoto
3.00
consensus price, since opening
F. Tiafoe
1.40
consensus price, since opening
Match winnerdecimal
Bookmaker
R. Sakamoto
F. Tiafoe
10bet
4.00 ▲
1.22 ▼
888Sport
3.60
1.29
Bet365
4.33 ▲
1.22 ▼
Betsson
4.02 ▲
1.23 ▼
Betway
4.00 ▲
1.25 ▼
Bwin
3.75
1.26
Interwetten
3.90 ▲
1.25 ▼
Marathon
4.00 ▲
1.24 ▼
Novibet
4.00
1.27 ▼
SportingBet
3.75
1.26
Unibet
4.10 ▲
1.24 ▼
fonbet
3.95 ▲
1.25 ▼
Consensus
3.95 ▼
1.25 ▼
F. Tiafoe at 1.40
86%
win rate at similar odds (21 matches) · market implies 71% · value signal
O/U Games 38.00Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
10bet
1.90
1.85
Marathon
1.86 ▼
1.86 ▲
Consensus
1.88 ▼
1.86 ▲
Games Handicap 5.00Full Match
Bookmaker
R. Sakamoto
F. Tiafoe
10bet
1.95 ▲
1.75 ▼
Consensus
1.95 ▲
1.75 ▼
Games Handicap 5.50Full Match
Bookmaker
R. Sakamoto
F. Tiafoe
10bet
1.75
1.95
888Sport
1.73 ▼
2.00 ▲
Betsson
1.77 ▲
1.94 ▼
Betway
1.80
1.91
Bwin
1.80
1.87
Interwetten
1.75 ▲
1.95 ▼
Novibet
1.67
2.05
SportingBet
1.80
1.87
Unibet
1.78 ▲
1.94 ▼
Consensus
1.76 ▲
1.94 ▼
Odd/Even GamesFull Match
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
10bet
1.83
1.83
Betsson
1.85
1.85
Marathon
1.86
1.86
Novibet
1.85
1.85
Unibet
1.85
1.85
Consensus
1.85
1.85
O/U Sets 3.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Betsson
1.63
2.14 ▼
Betway
1.60
2.20
Marathon
1.62
2.19 ▼
Novibet
1.58
2.20 ▼
Unibet
1.64 ▲
2.17 ▼
fonbet
1.60
2.25
Consensus
1.61 ▲
2.19 ▼
Set Handicap -2.50Full Match
Bookmaker
R. Sakamoto
F. Tiafoe
Betway
8.00
1.07
Interwetten
10.00
1.02
Unibet
12.50 ▲
1.02 ▲
fonbet
10.00 ▲
1.03
Consensus
10.17 ▲
1.04 ▲
Player O/U Games 15.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.72
2.05
Consensus
1.72
2.05
Player O/U Games 16.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Marathon
1.68 ▼
2.06 ▲
Unibet
1.75 ▲
2.05 ▲
Consensus
1.72 ▲
2.06 ▲
O/U Double Faults 7.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.45
2.55
Consensus
1.45
2.55
O/U Tie Breaks 0.50Full Match
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.46
2.55
Consensus
1.46
2.55
Match Winner1st Set
Bookmaker
R. Sakamoto
F. Tiafoe
10bet
2.90 ▲
1.38 ▼
888Sport
2.75
1.40
Bet365
3.00 ▲
1.40 ▼
Betsson
2.94 ▲
1.38 ▼
Betway
2.75
1.40
Bwin
2.70
1.42
Interwetten
2.85 ▲
1.37 ▼
Marathon
2.62 ▲
1.44
Novibet
2.95
1.40
SportingBet
2.70
1.42
Unibet
2.95 ▲
1.40 ▲
fonbet
2.85 ▲
1.43
Consensus
2.83 ▲
1.40 ▼
O/U Games 6.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.00
13.00
Consensus
–
13.00
O/U Games 7.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Marathon
1.02
9.30 ▲
Novibet
1.04
8.50
fonbet
1.04
9.00
Consensus
1.03 ▼
8.93 ▲
Games Handicap -1.501st Set
Bookmaker
R. Sakamoto
F. Tiafoe
Unibet
3.90
1.23
fonbet
3.60 ▲
1.25
Consensus
3.75 ▲
1.24 ▼
Odd/Even Games1st Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
Marathon
1.76 ▼
1.97 ▲
Novibet
1.75
1.93
Consensus
1.76 ▼
1.95 ▲
Player O/U Games 3.501st Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Marathon
1.38 ▼
2.80 ▲
Consensus
1.38 ▼
2.80 ▲
Match Winner2nd Set
Bookmaker
R. Sakamoto
F. Tiafoe
888Sport
2.75 ▲
1.40 ▼
Betway
2.75
1.40
Bwin
2.80
1.40
Interwetten
2.75
1.40
Marathon
2.81 ▲
1.39 ▼
Novibet
2.80
1.40
SportingBet
2.80
1.40
Unibet
2.88 ▲
1.40 ▼
Consensus
2.79 ▲
1.40
O/U Games 7.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Novibet
1.04
8.00
Consensus
1.04
8.00
Games Handicap 0.502nd Set
Bookmaker
R. Sakamoto
F. Tiafoe
Marathon
2.80 ▲
1.38 ▼
Consensus
2.80 ▲
1.38 ▼
Odd/Even Games2nd Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
Marathon
1.83 ▼
1.89 ▲
Novibet
1.78
1.90
Consensus
1.81 ▼
1.90 ▲
Player O/U Games 4.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
Marathon
1.84 ▼
1.88 ▲
Consensus
1.84 ▼
1.88 ▲