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Match facts
Tournament
Genoa, Italy
Category
Challenger
Round
Round of 32
Surface
clay
Key factors
Ranking
Juan Pablo Varillas is ranked 247 places higher
Surface
Juan Pablo Varillas wins +28% more on this surface
Serve
Juan Pablo Varillas has the stronger first serve
Recent form
J. Varillas 4 of last 5
L M. Dodig 0–2 W J. Clarke 2–1 W T. Wild 1–1 W F. Arnaboldi 2–0 W J. Kumstat 2–0F. Arnaboldi 3 of last 5
W M. Petković 2–1 W E. Cherie Ligniere 2–0 L J. Varillas 0–2 W F. Bondioli 0–0 L G. Crivellaro 1–2Win probability
J. VarillasF. Arnaboldi
79%
Model confidence
Why the model thinks so
- Ranked far higher (+247 places)
- Dominant on this surface (62% win rate)
- More effective serve
- Better recent form
J. Varillas
1.36
consensus price, since opening
F. Arnaboldi
3.00
consensus price, since opening
Match winnerdecimal
Bookmaker
J. Varillas
F. Arnaboldi
Gamdom
1.35
3.25
Consensus
1.36
3.00
J. Varillas at 1.36
78%
win rate at similar odds (9 matches) · market implies 74% · value signal