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Match facts
Tournament
Lisbon, Portugal
Category
Challenger
Round
Round of 16
Surface
clay
Key factors
Serve
Elmer Moller has the stronger first serve
Recent form
M. Alcalá Gurri 3 of last 5
W A. Andrade 2–0 L A. Sanchez Quilez 0–2 L L. Neumayer 1–2 W P. Schoen 2–0 W D. Blanch 2–0E. Møller 3 of last 5
W T. Boyer 2–0 L L. Neumayer 1–2 L M. Dodig 1–2 W V. Gaubas 2–1 W T. Pereira 2–1Head to head
Win probability
M. Alcalá GurriE. Møller
57%
Model confidence
Why the model thinks so
- Better on this surface
- More effective serve
- More titles on this surface
- Strong in tiebreaks (56%)
M. Alcalá Gurri
1.67
consensus price, since opening
E. Møller
2.10
consensus price, since opening
Match winnerdecimal
Bookmaker
M. Alcalá Gurri
E. Møller
10bet
1.60
2.20
1xBet
1.60
2.20
888Sport
1.67
2.10
Bet365
1.67
2.10
Betsson
1.63
2.14
Betway
1.60
2.20
Bwin
1.65
2.10
Interwetten
1.65
2.10
Novibet
1.66
2.10
SportingBet
1.65
2.10
Unibet
1.64
2.15
Vistabet
1.65
2.10
William Hill
1.67
2.10
fonbet
1.65
2.10
Consensus
1.64 ▼
2.13 ▼
M. Alcalá Gurri at 1.67
71%
win rate at similar odds (7 matches) · market implies 60% · value signal
E. Møller at 2.10
67%
win rate at similar odds (9 matches) · market implies 48% · value signal
Games Handicap -1.50Full Match
Bookmaker
M. Alcalá Gurri
E. Møller
1xBet
1.71
1.97
888Sport
1.85
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1.83
Betsson
1.76
1.95
Novibet
1.83
1.83
Unibet
1.76
1.95
William Hill
1.85
1.85
Consensus
1.80
1.89
Odd/Even GamesFull Match
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
10bet
1.83
1.83
1xBet
1.83
1.83
Betsson
1.85
1.85
Betway
1.85
1.85
Unibet
1.85
1.85
William Hill
1.85
1.85
Consensus
1.84
1.84
Match Winner1st Set
Bookmaker
M. Alcalá Gurri
E. Møller
10bet
1.67
2.10
1xBet
1.67
2.05
888Sport
1.70
2.05
Bet365
1.73
2.00
Betsson
1.68
2.06
Betway
1.65
2.10
Interwetten
1.70
2.05
Novibet
1.71
2.00
Unibet
1.68
2.06
William Hill
1.70
2.05
fonbet
1.70
2.02
Consensus
1.69
2.05
Odd/Even Games1st Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
1xBet
1.92
1.75
Consensus
1.92
1.75
O/U Games 9.502nd Set
Bookmaker
Over
Under
1xBet
2.00
1.67
Consensus
2.00
1.67
Odd/Even Games2nd Set
Bookmaker
Odd
Even
1xBet
1.95
1.72
Consensus
1.95
1.72