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📊 Tracked accuracy

Strategy v2 — underdog mispricings. Limited to markets where the live ledger shows positive ROI: 1X2 home/away outright wins and selected unders. Edges between +5% and +15% over the de-vigged consensus; odd band 1.30–5.00. Confidence 0-100 combines edge sanity, an odd-band fit, and the market's live-ledger tier.

197
Recommended picks
197
Strong tier
0
Neutral tier
2433
Markets scanned
🔥 Top picks by confidence
61 conf
Celta Vigo vs Levante UD
La Liga · 12 May 21:00
Under 3.5 1.39 +10.3% edge
61 conf
Cagliari vs Udinese
Serie A · 09 May 17:00
Under 2.5 1.65 +5.3% edge
61 conf
Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie · 10 May 18:45
Home Win 4.45 +8.0% edge
60 conf
Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid
La Liga · 12 May 23:30
Under 3.5 1.38 +9.7% edge
60 conf
KAA Gent vs RSC Anderlecht
Pro League · 10 May 15:30
Under 3.5 1.41 +9.1% edge
All matches (45)
Celta Vigo vs Levante UD
La Liga · Tue 12 May 21:00
61/100
best confidence
61
conf
Under 3.51.39
Strong market
Model 78% Market 68%
+10.3%
Fair odd
1.28
High conviction: model gives the pick 78%, the market only 68% (+10.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
56
conf
Away Win4.44
Strong market
Model 28% Market 21%
+7.1%
Fair odd
3.52
High conviction: model gives the pick 28%, the market only 21% (+7.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Cagliari vs Udinese
Serie A · Sat 09 May 17:00
61/100
best confidence
61
conf
Under 2.51.65
Strong market
Model 63% Market 57%
+5.3%
Fair odd
1.59
High conviction: model gives the pick 63%, the market only 57% (+5.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Go Ahead Eagles vs PSV Eindhoven
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
61/100
best confidence
61
conf
Home Win4.45
Strong market
Model 29% Market 21%
+8.0%
Fair odd
3.43
High conviction: model gives the pick 29%, the market only 21% (+8.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid
La Liga · Tue 12 May 23:30
60/100
best confidence
60
conf
Under 3.51.38
Strong market
Model 78% Market 68%
+9.7%
Fair odd
1.28
High conviction: model gives the pick 78%, the market only 68% (+9.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
KAA Gent vs RSC Anderlecht
Pro League · Sun 10 May 15:30
60/100
best confidence
60
conf
Under 3.51.41
Strong market
Model 75% Market 66%
+9.1%
Fair odd
1.33
High conviction: model gives the pick 75%, the market only 66% (+9.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Bayern München
Bundesliga · Sat 09 May 20:30
60/100
best confidence
60
conf
Home Win4.67
Strong market
Model 29% Market 20%
+9.1%
Fair odd
3.39
High conviction: model gives the pick 29%, the market only 20% (+9.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
IFK Göteborg vs Hammarby IF
Allsvenskan · Sat 09 May 17:00
58/100
best confidence
58
conf
Away Win1.63
Strong market
Model 63% Market 57%
+5.2%
Fair odd
1.60
High conviction: model gives the pick 63%, the market only 57% (+5.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Al-Kholood vs Al-Okhdood
Saudi Pro League · Tue 12 May 20:20
58/100
best confidence
58
conf
Under 3.51.47
Strong market
Model 71% Market 63%
+7.7%
Fair odd
1.41
High conviction: model gives the pick 71%, the market only 63% (+7.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
BK Häcken vs Malmö FF
Allsvenskan · Sun 10 May 18:30
57/100
best confidence
57
conf
Under 3.51.44
Strong market
Model 73% Market 65%
+8.1%
Fair odd
1.38
High conviction: model gives the pick 73%, the market only 65% (+8.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
FK Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia
Parva Liga · Sun 10 May 15:15
57/100
best confidence
57
conf
Under 3.51.34
Strong market
Model 80% Market 69%
+10.3%
Fair odd
1.26
High conviction: model gives the pick 80%, the market only 69% (+10.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid
La Liga · Sun 10 May 23:00
56/100
best confidence
56
conf
Away Win4.35
Strong market
Model 35% Market 22%
+13.4%
Fair odd
2.83
High conviction: model gives the pick 35%, the market only 22% (+13.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Real Oviedo vs Getafe
La Liga · Sun 10 May 20:30
56/100
best confidence
56
conf
Under 2.51.52
Strong market
Model 69% Market 62%
+6.5%
Fair odd
1.46
High conviction: model gives the pick 69%, the market only 62% (+6.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Beşiktaş JK vs Trabzonspor
Trendyol Super Lig · Sat 09 May 21:00
55/100
best confidence
55
conf
Under 3.51.57
Strong market
Model 65% Market 60%
+5.6%
Fair odd
1.53
High conviction: model gives the pick 65%, the market only 60% (+5.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima Antlers
J1 League · Sun 10 May 09:00
55/100
best confidence
55
conf
Under 3.51.31
Strong market
Model 82% Market 71%
+10.2%
Fair odd
1.23
High conviction: model gives the pick 82%, the market only 71% (+10.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Górnik Zabrze vs Zagłębie Lubin
Ekstraklasa · Sat 09 May 22:15
55/100
best confidence
55
conf
Away Win4.94
Strong market
Model 29% Market 19%
+10.4%
Fair odd
3.43
High conviction: model gives the pick 29%, the market only 19% (+10.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Mallorca vs Villarreal
La Liga · Sun 10 May 16:00
55/100
best confidence
55
conf
Under 3.51.42
Strong market
Model 78% Market 66%
+12.1%
Fair odd
1.28
High conviction: model gives the pick 78%, the market only 66% (+12.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga FC
J1 League · Sun 10 May 11:00
54/100
best confidence
54
conf
Under 3.51.31
Strong market
Model 82% Market 71%
+10.4%
Fair odd
1.23
High conviction: model gives the pick 82%, the market only 71% (+10.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin
Ekstraklasa · Sat 09 May 19:30
54/100
best confidence
54
conf
Under 3.51.58
Strong market
Model 74% Market 59%
+14.8%
Fair odd
1.35
High conviction: model gives the pick 74%, the market only 59% (+14.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg
Bundesliga · Sun 10 May 17:30
53/100
best confidence
53
conf
Under 3.51.44
Strong market
Model 73% Market 65%
+7.4%
Fair odd
1.38
High conviction: model gives the pick 73%, the market only 65% (+7.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Kalmar FF vs Halmstads BK
Allsvenskan · Sun 10 May 16:00
53/100
best confidence
53
conf
Away Win4.53
Strong market
Model 28% Market 21%
+7.0%
Fair odd
3.63
High conviction: model gives the pick 28%, the market only 21% (+7.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
PFK Montana 1921 vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Parva Liga · Sat 09 May 14:45
52/100
best confidence
52
conf
Under 3.51.37
Strong market
Model 79% Market 68%
+11.6%
Fair odd
1.26
High conviction: model gives the pick 79%, the market only 68% (+11.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Real Sociedad vs Granada Club de Fútbol
Liga F · Sat 09 May 14:00
52/100
best confidence
52
conf
Under 3.51.42
Strong market
Model 77% Market 65%
+12.5%
Fair odd
1.29
High conviction: model gives the pick 77%, the market only 65% (+12.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Real Betis vs Elche
La Liga · Tue 12 May 22:00
52/100
best confidence
52
conf
Under 3.51.44
Strong market
Model 78% Market 65%
+12.9%
Fair odd
1.28
High conviction: model gives the pick 78%, the market only 65% (+12.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
49
conf
Away Win4.94
Strong market
Model 31% Market 19%
+11.4%
Fair odd
3.27
High conviction: model gives the pick 31%, the market only 19% (+11.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
AFC Ajax vs FC Utrecht
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
52/100
best confidence
52
conf
Away Win4.35
Strong market
Model 36% Market 22%
+14.2%
Fair odd
2.79
High conviction: model gives the pick 36%, the market only 22% (+14.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
NPS Volos vs APO Levadiakos
Stoiximan Super League · Sun 10 May 18:00
52/100
best confidence
52
conf
Under 3.51.39
Strong market
Model 79% Market 67%
+12.1%
Fair odd
1.27
High conviction: model gives the pick 79%, the market only 67% (+12.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
KRC Genk vs KVC Westerlo
Pro League · Sun 10 May 21:15
51/100
best confidence
51
conf
Away Win4.67
Strong market
Model 28% Market 20%
+7.5%
Fair odd
3.62
High conviction: model gives the pick 28%, the market only 20% (+7.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Atlético Madrid vs Celta Vigo
La Liga · Sat 09 May 20:30
51/100
best confidence
51
conf
Under 3.51.46
Strong market
Model 78% Market 64%
+13.4%
Fair odd
1.29
High conviction: model gives the pick 78%, the market only 64% (+13.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Aris Thessaloniki vs OFI Crete
Stoiximan Super League · Sun 10 May 18:00
50/100
best confidence
50
conf
Under 3.51.30
Strong market
Model 81% Market 72%
+9.1%
Fair odd
1.23
High conviction: model gives the pick 81%, the market only 72% (+9.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Toulouse vs Olympique Lyonnais
Ligue 1 · Sun 10 May 23:00
49/100
best confidence
49
conf
Home Win4.33
Strong market
Model 37% Market 22%
+14.8%
Fair odd
2.73
High conviction: model gives the pick 37%, the market only 22% (+14.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Sandefjord Fotball vs Kristiansund BK
Eliteserien · Sun 10 May 19:00
48/100
best confidence
48
conf
Away Win4.64
Strong market
Model 33% Market 20%
+13.2%
Fair odd
2.99
High conviction: model gives the pick 33%, the market only 20% (+13.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Wisła Płock vs Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa · Sun 10 May 16:45
48/100
best confidence
48
conf
Under 3.51.40
Strong market
Model 79% Market 66%
+12.9%
Fair odd
1.26
High conviction: model gives the pick 79%, the market only 66% (+12.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Benfica vs Sporting Braga
Liga Portugal Betclic · Mon 11 May 23:15
47/100
best confidence
47
conf
Under 3.51.46
Strong market
Model 70% Market 64%
+5.9%
Fair odd
1.43
High conviction: model gives the pick 70%, the market only 64% (+5.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J1 League · Sun 10 May 10:00
46/100
best confidence
46
conf
Under 3.51.33
Strong market
Model 82% Market 70%
+12.1%
Fair odd
1.22
High conviction: model gives the pick 82%, the market only 70% (+12.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Real Sociedad vs Real Betis
La Liga · Sat 09 May 23:00
46/100
best confidence
46
conf
Under 3.51.48
Strong market
Model 78% Market 63%
+14.5%
Fair odd
1.29
High conviction: model gives the pick 78%, the market only 63% (+14.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Athletic Club vs Valencia
La Liga · Sun 10 May 18:15
45/100
best confidence
45
conf
Under 3.51.33
Strong market
Model 79% Market 71%
+7.7%
Fair odd
1.27
High conviction: model gives the pick 79%, the market only 71% (+7.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Royal Antwerp FC vs RC Sporting Charleroi
Pro League · Sun 10 May 18:00
44/100
best confidence
44
conf
Under 3.51.31
Strong market
Model 79% Market 71%
+7.8%
Fair odd
1.26
High conviction: model gives the pick 79%, the market only 71% (+7.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Mirassol vs Chapecoense
Brasileirão Serie A · Mon 11 May 01:30
43/100
best confidence
43
conf
Under 3.51.37
Strong market
Model 82% Market 68%
+13.4%
Fair odd
1.23
High conviction: model gives the pick 82%, the market only 68% (+13.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
FC Luzern vs FC Zürich
Super League · Tue 12 May 22:30
43/100
best confidence
43
conf
Away Win4.70
Strong market
Model 26% Market 20%
+6.2%
Fair odd
3.86
High conviction: model gives the pick 26%, the market only 20% (+6.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Elche vs Deportivo Alavés
La Liga · Sat 09 May 16:00
42/100
best confidence
42
conf
Under 3.51.33
Strong market
Model 78% Market 71%
+7.2%
Fair odd
1.29
High conviction: model gives the pick 78%, the market only 71% (+7.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Avenir Sportif De La Marsa vs CS Sfaxien
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1 · Sat 09 May 19:00
42/100
best confidence
42
conf
Under 2.51.32
Strong market
Model 83% Market 70%
+12.7%
Fair odd
1.21
High conviction: model gives the pick 83%, the market only 70% (+12.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Grêmio Novorizontino vs Botafogo-SP
Brasileirão Serie B · Mon 11 May 02:30
38/100
best confidence
38
conf
Away Win4.67
Strong market
Model 35% Market 20%
+15.0%
Fair odd
2.87
High conviction: model gives the pick 35%, the market only 20% (+15.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Remo vs Palmeiras
Brasileirão Serie A · Sun 10 May 23:00
34/100
best confidence
34
conf
Under 3.51.31
Strong market
Model 85% Market 71%
+14.0%
Fair odd
1.17
High conviction: model gives the pick 85%, the market only 71% (+14.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
ES Zarzis vs ES Métlaoui
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1 · Sat 09 May 19:00
34/100
best confidence
34
conf
Under 2.51.36
Strong market
Model 82% Market 67%
+14.8%
Fair odd
1.22
High conviction: model gives the pick 82%, the market only 67% (+14.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Qingdao West Coast vs Wuhan Three Towns
Chinese Super League · Sun 10 May 13:30
33/100
best confidence
33
conf
Under 3.51.31
Strong market
Model 78% Market 72%
+5.9%
Fair odd
1.29
High conviction: model gives the pick 78%, the market only 72% (+5.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
SSC Napoli vs Bologna
Serie A · Mon 11 May 22:45
30/100
best confidence
30
conf
Under 3.51.32
Strong market
Model 86% Market 71%
+14.9%
Fair odd
1.16
High conviction: model gives the pick 86%, the market only 71% (+14.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
How is this computed?

This page is a strict subset of the high-conviction picks shown on each match page. For a pick to land here it has to satisfy all of the following:

  • Model probability ≥ 78% (same threshold as the Discord bot and the match detail page).
  • Edge between +5pp and +15pp over the de-vigged consensus probability. Edges >15pp are dropped: backtest shows they are almost always model miscalibration, not genuine signal.
  • Reasonable price (1.10–1.85) — coherent with prob ≥ 78%.
  • Market is not flagged as a "weak tier" (negative ROI in the historical backtest).

Model %: calibrated probability the result happens.

Market %: implied probability of the average price across major books, with the bookmaker margin removed.

Edge: the gap between the two.

Confidence 0-100: blends a sane edge, healthy probability and the market's historical tier.

Not financial advice. Bet responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose.