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Value Bets

📊 Tracked accuracy

Strategy v2 — underdog mispricings. Limited to markets where the live ledger shows positive ROI: 1X2 home/away outright wins and selected unders. Edges between +5% and +15% over the de-vigged consensus; odd band 1.30–5.00. Confidence 0-100 combines edge sanity, an odd-band fit, and the market's live-ledger tier.

193
Recommended picks
193
Strong tier
0
Neutral tier
2389
Markets scanned
🔥 Top picks by confidence
77 conf
SD Eibar vs Alhama Club de Fútbol
Liga F · 09 May 18:00
Away Win 3.26 +5.8% edge
77 conf
Aberdeen vs Dundee United
Scottish Premiership · 09 May 18:00
Away Win 3.31 +14.2% edge
77 conf
Hellas Verona vs Como
Serie A · 10 May 14:30
Under 2.5 1.90 +14.2% edge
76 conf
FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie · 10 May 18:45
Under 3.5 1.76 +6.3% edge
76 conf
CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão
Liga Portugal Betclic · 11 May 23:15
Under 2.5 1.92 +5.6% edge
All matches (47)
SD Eibar vs Alhama Club de Fútbol
Liga F · Sat 09 May 18:00
77/100
best confidence
77
conf
Away Win3.26
Strong market
Model 34% Market 28%
+5.8%
Fair odd
2.98
High conviction: model gives the pick 34%, the market only 28% (+5.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Aberdeen vs Dundee United
Scottish Premiership · Sat 09 May 18:00
77/100
best confidence
77
conf
Away Win3.31
Strong market
Model 42% Market 28%
+14.2%
Fair odd
2.36
High conviction: model gives the pick 42%, the market only 28% (+14.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Hellas Verona vs Como
Serie A · Sun 10 May 14:30
77/100
best confidence
77
conf
Under 2.51.90
Strong market
Model 64% Market 50%
+14.2%
Fair odd
1.56
High conviction: model gives the pick 64%, the market only 50% (+14.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
76/100
best confidence
76
conf
Under 3.51.76
Strong market
Model 60% Market 53%
+6.3%
Fair odd
1.68
High conviction: model gives the pick 60%, the market only 53% (+6.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
73
conf
Under 2.52.76
Strong market
Model 39% Market 34%
+5.0%
Fair odd
2.57
High conviction: model gives the pick 39%, the market only 34% (+5.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
CF Estrela Amadora vs Famalicão
Liga Portugal Betclic · Mon 11 May 23:15
76/100
best confidence
76
conf
Under 2.51.92
Strong market
Model 54% Market 49%
+5.6%
Fair odd
1.84
High conviction: model gives the pick 54%, the market only 49% (+5.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Londrina vs São Bernardo
Brasileirão Serie B · Wed 13 May 02:30
76/100
best confidence
76
conf
Away Win3.31
Strong market
Model 42% Market 28%
+14.4%
Fair odd
2.36
High conviction: model gives the pick 42%, the market only 28% (+14.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Huesca vs Real Sociedad B U21
Segunda División · Mon 11 May 22:30
76/100
best confidence
76
conf
Under 2.51.77
Strong market
Model 67% Market 53%
+14.0%
Fair odd
1.50
High conviction: model gives the pick 67%, the market only 53% (+14.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
FK Dobrudzha Dobrich vs Beroe Stara Zagora
Parva Liga · Sun 10 May 20:15
75/100
best confidence
75
conf
Under 2.51.69
Strong market
Model 62% Market 55%
+7.3%
Fair odd
1.61
High conviction: model gives the pick 62%, the market only 55% (+7.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
CD Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL
Liga MX Clausura · Sun 10 May 05:07
75/100
best confidence
75
conf
Away Win3.28
Strong market
Model 34% Market 28%
+5.5%
Fair odd
2.96
High conviction: model gives the pick 34%, the market only 28% (+5.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Club Brugge KV vs Sint-Truidense VV
Pro League · Sat 09 May 22:45
75/100
best confidence
75
conf
Under 3.51.73
Strong market
Model 61% Market 54%
+6.6%
Fair odd
1.64
High conviction: model gives the pick 61%, the market only 54% (+6.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Aris Thessaloniki vs OFI Crete
Stoiximan Super League · Sun 10 May 18:00
75/100
best confidence
75
conf
Under 2.51.78
Strong market
Model 58% Market 53%
+5.8%
Fair odd
1.71
High conviction: model gives the pick 58%, the market only 53% (+5.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Londrina vs São Bernardo
Brasileirão Serie B · Sun 10 May 23:00
75/100
best confidence
75
conf
Away Win3.55
Strong market
Model 40% Market 26%
+14.3%
Fair odd
2.51
High conviction: model gives the pick 40%, the market only 26% (+14.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
AVS - Futebol SAD vs FC Porto
Liga Portugal Betclic · Sun 10 May 21:00
75/100
best confidence
75
conf
Under 3.51.60
Strong market
Model 70% Market 59%
+11.4%
Fair odd
1.43
High conviction: model gives the pick 70%, the market only 59% (+11.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Cagliari vs Udinese
Serie A · Sat 09 May 17:00
75/100
best confidence
75
conf
Home Win2.64
Strong market
Model 41% Market 36%
+5.4%
Fair odd
2.42
High conviction: model gives the pick 41%, the market only 36% (+5.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
64
conf
Under 2.51.66
Strong market
Model 63% Market 57%
+5.7%
Fair odd
1.59
High conviction: model gives the pick 63%, the market only 57% (+5.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Colorado Rapids vs St.Louis City
MLS · Sun 10 May 05:30
74/100
best confidence
74
conf
Away Win3.43
Strong market
Model 42% Market 27%
+14.7%
Fair odd
2.38
High conviction: model gives the pick 42%, the market only 27% (+14.7pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
San Jose Earthquakes vs Vancouver Whitecaps
MLS · Sun 10 May 06:30
74/100
best confidence
74
conf
Under 2.52.42
Strong market
Model 44% Market 39%
+5.4%
Fair odd
2.28
High conviction: model gives the pick 44%, the market only 39% (+5.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima Antlers
J1 League · Sun 10 May 09:00
74/100
best confidence
74
conf
Home Win3.46
Strong market
Model 32% Market 27%
+5.3%
Fair odd
3.11
High conviction: model gives the pick 32%, the market only 27% (+5.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Milan vs Atalanta
Serie A · Sun 10 May 22:45
74/100
best confidence
74
conf
Under 2.51.98
Strong market
Model 62% Market 48%
+14.8%
Fair odd
1.60
High conviction: model gives the pick 62%, the market only 48% (+14.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
SC Oțelul Galați vs FC Farul Constanța
Superliga · Sat 09 May 19:00
74/100
best confidence
74
conf
Away Win3.13
Strong market
Model 35% Market 29%
+5.2%
Fair odd
2.89
High conviction: model gives the pick 35%, the market only 29% (+5.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
71
conf
Under 2.51.74
Strong market
Model 59% Market 54%
+5.6%
Fair odd
1.69
High conviction: model gives the pick 59%, the market only 54% (+5.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J1 League · Sun 10 May 10:00
74/100
best confidence
74
conf
Under 2.51.89
Strong market
Model 55% Market 49%
+5.2%
Fair odd
1.83
High conviction: model gives the pick 55%, the market only 49% (+5.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Real Valladolid vs Real Zaragoza
Segunda División · Sat 09 May 20:30
74/100
best confidence
74
conf
Under 2.51.77
Strong market
Model 67% Market 53%
+14.3%
Fair odd
1.49
High conviction: model gives the pick 67%, the market only 53% (+14.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
SV Zulte Waregem vs FCV Dender
Pro League · Sat 09 May 18:00
73/100
best confidence
73
conf
Under 3.51.55
Strong market
Model 69% Market 60%
+9.3%
Fair odd
1.44
High conviction: model gives the pick 69%, the market only 60% (+9.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Neom SC vs Al-Shabab
Saudi Pro League · Mon 11 May 20:50
73/100
best confidence
73
conf
Under 2.52.09
Strong market
Model 50% Market 45%
+5.1%
Fair odd
2.01
High conviction: model gives the pick 50%, the market only 45% (+5.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Botev Vratsa vs FK Septemvri Sofia
Parva Liga · Sun 10 May 17:45
73/100
best confidence
73
conf
Under 2.51.96
Strong market
Model 62% Market 47%
+14.9%
Fair odd
1.61
High conviction: model gives the pick 62%, the market only 47% (+14.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
MLS · Sat 09 May 22:30
73/100
best confidence
73
conf
Under 2.53.13
Strong market
Model 35% Market 30%
+5.1%
Fair odd
2.85
High conviction: model gives the pick 35%, the market only 30% (+5.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
APS Atromitos Athinon vs GFS Panetolikos
Stoiximan Super League · Sat 09 May 20:30
73/100
best confidence
73
conf
Under 2.51.69
Strong market
Model 62% Market 55%
+6.9%
Fair odd
1.61
High conviction: model gives the pick 62%, the market only 55% (+6.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Qingdao West Coast vs Wuhan Three Towns
Chinese Super League · Sun 10 May 13:30
73/100
best confidence
73
conf
Home Win2.01
Strong market
Model 61% Market 46%
+15.0%
Fair odd
1.63
High conviction: model gives the pick 61%, the market only 46% (+14.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Pogoń Szczecin
Ekstraklasa · Sat 09 May 19:30
73/100
best confidence
73
conf
Away Win3.83
Strong market
Model 31% Market 24%
+6.8%
Fair odd
3.21
High conviction: model gives the pick 31%, the market only 24% (+6.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Al-Najma SC vs Al-Hazem
Saudi Pro League · Sat 09 May 20:15
73/100
best confidence
73
conf
Away Win2.05
Strong market
Model 50% Market 45%
+5.0%
Fair odd
1.99
High conviction: model gives the pick 50%, the market only 45% (+5.0pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Excelsior vs FC Volendam
Eredivisie · Sun 10 May 18:45
73/100
best confidence
73
conf
Under 3.51.52
Strong market
Model 72% Market 61%
+10.4%
Fair odd
1.39
High conviction: model gives the pick 72%, the market only 61% (+10.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Toronto FC vs Inter Miami CF
MLS · Sat 09 May 21:00
72/100
best confidence
72
conf
Home Win3.54
Strong market
Model 32% Market 27%
+5.2%
Fair odd
3.16
High conviction: model gives the pick 32%, the market only 27% (+5.2pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
MGS Panserraikos vs AE Kifisia
Stoiximan Super League · Sat 09 May 17:00
70/100
best confidence
70
conf
Under 2.51.59
Strong market
Model 71% Market 59%
+12.1%
Fair odd
1.41
High conviction: model gives the pick 71%, the market only 59% (+12.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton
Premier League · Sat 09 May 18:00
69/100
best confidence
69
conf
Under 3.51.64
Strong market
Model 71% Market 58%
+13.1%
Fair odd
1.41
High conviction: model gives the pick 71%, the market only 58% (+13.1pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
FCSB vs AFC Unirea 04 Slobozia
Superliga · Mon 11 May 22:00
69/100
best confidence
69
conf
Under 3.51.54
Strong market
Model 72% Market 60%
+11.5%
Fair odd
1.39
High conviction: model gives the pick 72%, the market only 60% (+11.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Al-Ittihad vs Damac FC
Saudi Pro League · Sun 10 May 22:00
69/100
best confidence
69
conf
Under 3.51.48
Strong market
Model 72% Market 63%
+9.5%
Fair odd
1.38
High conviction: model gives the pick 72%, the market only 63% (+9.5pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Sunderland vs Manchester United
Premier League · Sat 09 May 18:00
68/100
best confidence
68
conf
Home Win3.77
Strong market
Model 40% Market 25%
+14.3%
Fair odd
2.53
High conviction: model gives the pick 40%, the market only 25% (+14.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Bayern München
Bundesliga · Sat 09 May 20:30
68/100
best confidence
68
conf
Under 2.53.80
Strong market
Model 31% Market 25%
+5.9%
Fair odd
3.27
High conviction: model gives the pick 31%, the market only 25% (+5.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Rosenborg BK vs Lillestrøm SK
Eliteserien · Sun 10 May 16:30
68/100
best confidence
68
conf
Under 3.51.48
Strong market
Model 73% Market 63%
+10.6%
Fair odd
1.36
High conviction: model gives the pick 73%, the market only 63% (+10.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Córdoba vs Granada
Segunda División · Sun 10 May 20:30
68/100
best confidence
68
conf
Away Win4.29
Strong market
Model 33% Market 22%
+11.6%
Fair odd
3.00
High conviction: model gives the pick 33%, the market only 22% (+11.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
FC Anyang vs Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
K League 1 · Sun 10 May 11:30
67/100
best confidence
67
conf
Under 2.51.70
Strong market
Model 69% Market 55%
+14.5%
Fair odd
1.44
High conviction: model gives the pick 69%, the market only 55% (+14.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Santos vs Red Bull Bragantino
Brasileirão Serie A · Mon 11 May 01:30
66/100
best confidence
66
conf
Under 2.51.70
Strong market
Model 61% Market 55%
+5.4%
Fair odd
1.65
High conviction: model gives the pick 61%, the market only 55% (+5.4pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: model tends to spot defensive matches the market overprices.
Dundee United vs Livingston
Scottish Premiership · Tue 12 May 22:45
64/100
best confidence
64
conf
Away Win4.57
Strong market
Model 31% Market 20%
+10.6%
Fair odd
3.23
High conviction: model gives the pick 31%, the market only 20% (+10.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
FC Sion vs FC Thun
Super League · Sun 10 May 18:30
64/100
best confidence
64
conf
Under 3.51.57
Strong market
Model 72% Market 59%
+12.8%
Fair odd
1.39
High conviction: model gives the pick 72%, the market only 59% (+12.8pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Remo vs Palmeiras
Brasileirão Serie A · Sun 10 May 23:00
63/100
best confidence
63
conf
Home Win4.31
Strong market
Model 29% Market 22%
+7.6%
Fair odd
3.40
High conviction: model gives the pick 29%, the market only 22% (+7.6pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: home market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Fulham vs Bournemouth
Premier League · Sat 09 May 18:00
62/100
best confidence
62
conf
Under 3.51.56
Strong market
Model 68% Market 61%
+6.9%
Fair odd
1.48
High conviction: model gives the pick 68%, the market only 61% (+6.9pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
Gil Vicente vs FC Arouca
Liga Portugal Betclic · Mon 11 May 23:15
61/100
best confidence
61
conf
Away Win4.67
Strong market
Model 29% Market 20%
+9.3%
Fair odd
3.39
High conviction: model gives the pick 29%, the market only 20% (+9.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: away market where the model tends to overconfide (caution).
Celta Vigo vs Levante UD
La Liga · Tue 12 May 21:00
61/100
best confidence
61
conf
Under 3.51.39
Strong market
Model 78% Market 68%
+10.3%
Fair odd
1.28
High conviction: model gives the pick 78%, the market only 68% (+10.3pp gap). Strong market: historically positive ROI in our backtest. Typical reason: xG-based models beat the market at detecting tight games.
How is this computed?

This page is a strict subset of the high-conviction picks shown on each match page. For a pick to land here it has to satisfy all of the following:

  • Model probability ≥ 78% (same threshold as the Discord bot and the match detail page).
  • Edge between +5pp and +15pp over the de-vigged consensus probability. Edges >15pp are dropped: backtest shows they are almost always model miscalibration, not genuine signal.
  • Reasonable price (1.10–1.85) — coherent with prob ≥ 78%.
  • Market is not flagged as a "weak tier" (negative ROI in the historical backtest).

Model %: calibrated probability the result happens.

Market %: implied probability of the average price across major books, with the bookmaker margin removed.

Edge: the gap between the two.

Confidence 0-100: blends a sane edge, healthy probability and the market's historical tier.

Not financial advice. Bet responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose.