Fortaleza 1-1 Ceará: Stats, xG & Lineups – Sep 13, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Fortaleza 1-1 Ceará.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

90'

L. Holanda

Attempt saved. L. Holanda (Ceará), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.14.

90'

Ceará

Corner, Ceará.

87'

Melk

Goal! Fortaleza 1-1 Ceará. Melk (Ceará) scores, assisted by M. Araújo.

85'

Ronald

Attempt missed. Ronald (Fortaleza), header from a corner. xG 0.02.

84'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

80'

Pierre

Substitution, Fortaleza: Ronald comes on for Pierre.

80'

Luiz Fernando

Substitution, Fortaleza: Ryan comes on for Luiz Fernando.

80'

K. Henrique

Substitution, Fortaleza: M. Lima comes on for K. Henrique.

79'

P. Baya

Attempt blocked. P. Baya (Fortaleza), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.03.

79'

Melk

Attempt saved. Melk (Ceará), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.

77'

J. Gabriel

Attempt blocked. J. Gabriel (Ceará), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

76'

Sánchez

Substitution, Ceará: Sávio comes on for Sánchez.

76'

Júlio César

Substitution, Ceará: M. Araújo comes on for Júlio César.

76'

Saulo Mineiro

Substitution, Ceará: L. Holanda comes on for Saulo Mineiro.

75'

P. Baya

Attempt saved. P. Baya (Fortaleza), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.09.

75'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

72'

Melk

Attempt blocked. Melk (Ceará), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

72'

R. Santana

Attempt saved. R. Santana (Ceará), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

72'

P. Baya

Attempt blocked. P. Baya (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

69'

R. Santos

Attempt missed. R. Santos (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

69'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

68'

R. Santana

Yellow card for R. Santana (Ceará) for foul.

66'

Vina

Attempt missed. Vina (Ceará), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

65'

Sánchez

Attempt blocked. Sánchez (Ceará), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

65'

Vitinho

Substitution, Fortaleza: Chico da Costa comes on for Vitinho.

62'

Rodriguinho

Attempt blocked. Rodriguinho (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

62'

R. Santana

Attempt missed. R. Santana (Ceará), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

61'

N. Ferreira

Substitution, Ceará: R. Santana comes on for N. Ferreira.

56'

L. Otávio

Attempt missed. L. Otávio (Ceará), header from a corner. xG 0.10.

56'

Ceará

Corner, Ceará.

55'

Ceará

Corner, Ceará.

55'

Sánchez

Attempt blocked. Sánchez (Ceará), header from a set piece. xG 0.01.

52'

P. Baya

Attempt saved. P. Baya (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

52'

Fortaleza

Offside, Fortaleza.

51'

Ceará

Corner, Ceará.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Fortaleza 1-0 Ceará.

45+3'

Saulo Mineiro

Attempt missed. Saulo Mineiro (Ceará), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.

45+1'

Ceará

Offside, Ceará.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

41'

Vinicius Zanocelo

Substitution, Ceará: Vina comes on for Vinicius Zanocelo.

35'

Pierre

Yellow card for Pierre (Fortaleza) for argument.

30'

Vitinho

Goal! Fortaleza 1-0 Ceará. Vitinho (Fortaleza) scores.

30'

Luiz Fernando

Attempt missed. Luiz Fernando (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.17.

29'

Melk

Attempt blocked. Melk (Ceará), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

28'

P. Henrique

Substitution, Fortaleza: P. Baya comes on for P. Henrique.

22'

P. Henrique

Attempt missed. P. Henrique (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

20'

Vinicius Zanocelo

Yellow card for Vinicius Zanocelo (Ceará) for foul.

20'

R. Santos

Yellow card for R. Santos (Fortaleza) for argument.

17'

Fortaleza

Offside, Fortaleza.

14'

J. Gabriel

Attempt missed. J. Gabriel (Ceará), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

12'

Fortaleza

Offside, Fortaleza.

12'

Maílton

VAR check complete: the goal for Fortaleza stands.

10'

Saulo Mineiro

Attempt saved. Saulo Mineiro (Ceará), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.

1'

P. Henrique

Attempt missed. P. Henrique (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

1'

Kick-off: Fortaleza vs Ceará.

Where the money is

297247 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 2 weeks ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 124122 EUR · live

Home 150.0 · implied 0.7%

72.8%

+72.1 vs price

Draw 1.02 · implied 98.0%

22.2%

-75.9 vs price

Away 55.0 · implied 1.8%

5.1%

+3.3 vs price

Half time 628 EUR

Draw 2.08 · implied 48.1%

87.6%

+39.5 vs price

Home 3.25 · implied 30.8%

9.2%

-21.5 vs price

Away 5.0 · implied 20.0%

3.0%

-17.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 46480 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

87.9%

-11.1 vs price

Over 36.0 · implied 2.8%

12.1%

+9.3 vs price

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

12' VAR Goal not given after review · Maílton

20' Vinicius Zanocelo · Foul

20' R. Santos · Argument

28' 🔁 P. Baya ◂ P. Henrique

30' ⚽ Vitinho1–0

35' Pierre · Argument

41' 🔁 Vina ◂ Vinicius Zanocelo

Half-time · 1–0

61' 🔁 R. Santana ◂ N. Ferreira

65' 🔁 Chico da Costa ◂ Vitinho

68' R. Santana · Foul

76' 🔁 L. Holanda ◂ Saulo Mineiro

76' 🔁 M. Araújo ◂ Júlio César

76' 🔁 Sávio ◂ Sánchez

80' 🔁 M. Lima ◂ K. Henrique

80' 🔁 Ryan ◂ Luiz Fernando

80' 🔁 Ronald ◂ Pierre

87' ⚽ Melk · assist M. Araújo1–1

Full-time · 1–1

Coaches

Paulo Autuori

Daniel Paulista

Recent form

Fortaleza

WHAvaí1-0

WAGoiás1-0

DHOperário-PR1-1

WACriciúma2-0

DHSão Bernardo1-1

Ceará

LAAtlético Goianiense1-2

WHSport Recife2-1

LAVila Nova FC0-2

WHLondrina2-1

LANáutico0-1

About this match

**Ceará's clawing back into this one, but Fortaleza are the hot hand** — the home side's on a three-match unbeaten run while their rivals are limping through a rough patch. 🔥

Fortaleza look sharp right now: three wins in their last five with some tidy defending. Ceará? They've dropped three of their last five, though they did nick a 2-1 over Sport to show some bite. That H2H favors Ceará historically, but form wins derbies.

Key storylines:

- **Fortaleza's defense** has tightened up lately with clean sheets against Avaí and Goiás — Vitinho and Rodriguinho will be key to keeping that momentum
- **Ceará's attack needs to click** after two straight defeats; Richard and Melk will have to find space in a crowded midfield
- Derby intensity in a packed home stadium could swing either way, but **Fortaleza's recent solidity** is the edge

Expected lineups:

- **Fortaleza**: J. Ricardo, M. Lima, L. Gazal, T. Cardona, Maílton, Pierre, L. Sasha, Rodriguinho, P. Henrique, J. Miritello, Vitinho
- **Ceará**: Matheus Nogueira, Júlio César, G. Rocha, Éder, Sávio, J. Gabriel, Melk, Giulio, N. Ferreira, E. Lodovico, Richard

Prediction:

**Fortaleza 2-1 Ceará**. Home advantage, form, and a settled backline give the hosts a slight lean. 📍

Where to watch

BetanoDisney+

Match facts

Stadium

Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo

City

Fortaleza

Referee

Marcelo de Lima Henrique

4.74 yellows/match · 23 matches

Kickoff

13 Sep, 21:30 UTC

Competition

Brasileirão Serie B

Highlights & clips

Fortaleza 4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1 Ceará

1 J. Ricardo 6.9 22 Maílton 6.6 3 L. Gazal 6.7 6 T. Cardona 7.5 13 M. Lima 6.3 ↑ 80' 91 Chico da Costa 6.5 ↑ 65' 37 Ryan 6.6 ↑ 80' 29 R. Santos 6.1 75 Rodriguinho 6.8 77 P. Baya 7.3 ↑ 28' 8 Ronald 6.4 ↑ 80' 1 Richard 6.8 6 Sávio 6.8 ↑ 76' 4 L. Otávio 6.9 13 L. Otávio 6.9 8 M. Araújo 6.7 ↑ 76' 81 J. Gabriel 7.0 29 Vina 6.7 ↑ 41' 60 E. Lodovico 7.0 40 Melk 7.5 16 R. Santana 6.7 ↑ 61' 99 L. Holanda 6.5 ↑ 76'

Top stats

48%Possession52%

1.11Expected goals (xG)0.98

11Total shots15

3Shots on target5

1Big chances1

3Corners4

Shots

5Shots off target5

3Blocked shots5

10Shots inside box9

1Shots outside box6

1Big chances scored1

-0.05Goals prevented0.08

Attack

17Touches in box22

59Final third entries56

3Offsides1

10Free kicks17

1Fouled in final third3

Passing

385Passes407

308Accurate passes325

33/73 (45%)Long balls24/50 (48%)

2/11 (18%)Crosses3/18 (17%)

23Throw-ins28

Duels

49Duels51

36/70 (51%)Ground duels34/70 (49%)

13/31 (42%)Aerial duels18/31 (58%)

6/11 (55%)Dribbles6/15 (40%)

7Dispossessed12

Defending

21Tackles12

67Tackles won92

15Interceptions4

27Clearances18

42Recoveries35

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

1Big saves2

9Goal kicks9

3Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Fortaleza 50%

29%

Ceará 21%

CornersOver 9.5 corners 56% · 1.58 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 68% · 1.30 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 59% · 1.15 @ Unibet

Who winsFortaleza to win (DNB) 68% · 1.39 @ Betsson

BTTSBTTS: No 55% · 1.20 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 79% · 1.24 @ Unibet

1X2Fortaleza to win 50% · 2.26 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 29% · 2.55 @ Unibet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 66% · 2.60 @ William Hill

1X2Ceará to win 21% · 4.84 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.94 @ Unibet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.85

Fortaleza

3.16

Draw

4.31

Ceará

Double Chanceconsensus

1.18

Fortaleza or Draw

1.31

Fortaleza or Ceará

1.89

Draw or Ceará

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

2.10

Yes

1.66

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.90

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

6.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.07

Over 0.50

8.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.40

Over 1.50

2.75

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.38

Over 2.50

1.57

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.45

Over 3.50

1.20

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

9.35

Over 4.50

1.06

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.37

Fortaleza

2.90

Ceará

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.14

Over 7.50

4.51

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.29

Over 8.50

3.13

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.56

Over 9.50

2.30

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

1.92

Over 10.50

1.84

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.43

Over 11.50

1.51

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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