Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Ceará's clawing back into this one, but Fortaleza are the hot hand** — the home side's on a three-match unbeaten run while their rivals are limping through a rough patch. 🔥
Fortaleza look sharp right now: three wins in their last five with some tidy defending. Ceará? They've dropped three of their last five, though they did nick a 2-1 over Sport to show some bite. That H2H favors Ceará historically, but form wins derbies.
Key storylines:
- **Fortaleza's defense** has tightened up lately with clean sheets against Avaí and Goiás — Vitinho and Rodriguinho will be key to keeping that momentum
- **Ceará's attack needs to click** after two straight defeats; Richard and Melk will have to find space in a crowded midfield
- Derby intensity in a packed home stadium could swing either way, but **Fortaleza's recent solidity** is the edge
Expected lineups:
- **Fortaleza**: J. Ricardo, M. Lima, L. Gazal, T. Cardona, Maílton, Pierre, L. Sasha, Rodriguinho, P. Henrique, J. Miritello, Vitinho
- **Ceará**: Matheus Nogueira, Júlio César, G. Rocha, Éder, Sávio, J. Gabriel, Melk, Giulio, N. Ferreira, E. Lodovico, Richard
Prediction:
**Fortaleza 2-1 Ceará**. Home advantage, form, and a settled backline give the hosts a slight lean. 📍
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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