Fortaleza 1-1 Náutico: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 3, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Fortaleza 1-1 Náutico.

90+6'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

90+4'

Wenderson

Yellow card for Wenderson (Náutico) for foul.

90+3'

J. Carlos

Attempt blocked. J. Carlos (Náutico), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

90'

6 minutes of added time.

88'

Vinícius

Attempt missed. Vinícius (Náutico), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

85'

L. Índio

Substitution, Náutico: Wanderson comes on for L. Índio.

85'

Todinho

Substitution, Náutico: P. Sérgio comes on for Todinho.

85'

Luiz Fernando

Substitution, Fortaleza: P. Baya comes on for Luiz Fernando.

84'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

81'

J. C. Cantillo

Off the woodwork! J. C. Cantillo (Fortaleza), header from a corner. xG 0.08.

81'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

80'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

79'

J. Carlos

Attempt blocked. J. Carlos (Náutico), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

78'

Welliton

Attempt blocked. Welliton (Fortaleza), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

76'

Vitinho

Substitution, Fortaleza: Welliton comes on for Vitinho.

75'

Luiz Fernando

Attempt missed. Luiz Fernando (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

73'

Fortaleza

Offside, Fortaleza.

71'

Nathan Fogaça

Substitution, Fortaleza: R. Santos comes on for Nathan Fogaça.

71'

L. Sasha

Substitution, Fortaleza: J. C. Cantillo comes on for L. Sasha.

71'

Arnaldo

Substitution, Náutico: Reginaldo comes on for Arnaldo.

70'

Vinícius

Attempt blocked. Vinícius (Náutico), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

70'

Náutico

Corner, Náutico.

69'

Todinho

Attempt blocked. Todinho (Náutico), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

66'

Nathan Fogaça

Attempt saved. Nathan Fogaça (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

63'

Náutico

Corner, Náutico.

59'

Todinho

Attempt saved. Todinho (Náutico), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

58'

Derek

Substitution, Náutico: B. Borasi comes on for Derek.

58'

S. F. Rodrigues

Substitution, Náutico: L. Felipe comes on for S. F. Rodrigues.

53'

Náutico

Offside, Náutico.

51'

Arnaldo

Yellow card for Arnaldo (Náutico) for foul.

46'

P. Henrique

Substitution, Fortaleza: Rodriguinho comes on for P. Henrique.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Fortaleza 1-1 Náutico.

45+4'

S. F. Rodrigues

Yellow card for S. F. Rodrigues (Náutico) for foul.

45+1'

Derek

Attempt missed. Derek (Náutico), header. xG 0.03.

45+1'

S. F. Rodrigues

Attempt missed. S. F. Rodrigues (Náutico), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

43'

Luiz Fernando

Goal! Fortaleza 1-1 Náutico. Luiz Fernando (Fortaleza) scores, assisted by Maílton.

39'

Nathan Fogaça

Attempt missed. Nathan Fogaça (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

38'

Pierre

Attempt blocked. Pierre (Fortaleza), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

36'

Maílton

Attempt missed. Maílton (Fortaleza), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

33'

J. Carlos

Attempt missed. J. Carlos (Náutico), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

31'

L. Gazal

Yellow card for L. Gazal (Fortaleza) for foul.

28'

P. Henrique

Attempt missed. P. Henrique (Fortaleza), left-footed shot. xG 0.15.

28'

J. Carlos

Attempt saved. J. Carlos (Náutico), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

27'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

26'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

24'

Nathan Fogaça

Attempt saved. Nathan Fogaça (Fortaleza), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

23'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

23'

Luiz Fernando

Attempt blocked. Luiz Fernando (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

21'

P. Henrique

Attempt missed. P. Henrique (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.29.

19'

Maílton

Attempt blocked. Maílton (Fortaleza), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

18'

Nathan Fogaça

Off the woodwork! Nathan Fogaça (Fortaleza), header. xG 0.19.

17'

Maílton

Attempt saved. Maílton (Fortaleza), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

12'

Fortaleza

Corner, Fortaleza.

10'

L. Índio

Attempt blocked. L. Índio (Náutico), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

10'

Náutico

Corner, Náutico.

9'

Náutico

Corner, Náutico.

5'

Vinícius

Goal! Fortaleza 0-1 Náutico. Vinícius (Náutico) scores, assisted by Arnaldo.

4'

P. Henrique

Attempt missed. P. Henrique (Fortaleza), left-footed shot. xG 0.32.

1'

Kick-off: Fortaleza vs Náutico.

Where the money is

129883 EUR matched · captured 1 month ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 53184 EUR · live

Home 11.5 · implied 8.7%

60.6%

+51.9 vs price

Draw 1.03 · implied 97.1%

26.8%

-70.3 vs price

Away 40.0 · implied 2.5%

13.0%

+10.5 vs price

Half time 1992 EUR · live

Away 1.16 · implied 86.2%

82.3%

-3.9 vs price

Home 10.0 · implied 10.0%

11.1%

+1.1 vs price

Draw 1.13 · implied 88.5%

6.5%

-82.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 18770 EUR · live

Over 40.0 · implied 2.5%

60.7%

+58.2 vs price

Under 1.03 · implied 97.1%

39.3%

-57.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 2986 EUR · live

Under 1.08 · implied 92.6%

91.5%

-1.1 vs price

Over 8.8 · implied 11.4%

8.5%

-2.9 vs price

12 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

5' ⚽ Vinícius · assist Arnaldo0–1

31' L. Gazal · Foul

43' ⚽ Luiz Fernando · assist Maílton1–1

Half-time · 1–1

45'⁺⁴ S. F. Rodrigues · Foul

46' 🔁 Rodriguinho ◂ P. Henrique

51' Arnaldo · Foul

58' 🔁 L. Felipe ◂ S. F. Rodrigues

58' 🔁 B. Borasi ◂ Derek

71' 🔁 Reginaldo ◂ Arnaldo

71' 🔁 J. C. Cantillo ◂ L. Sasha

71' 🔁 R. Santos ◂ Nathan Fogaça

76' 🔁 Welliton ◂ Vitinho

85' 🔁 P. Baya ◂ Luiz Fernando

85' 🔁 P. Sérgio ◂ Todinho

85' 🔁 Wanderson ◂ L. Índio

Full-time · 1–1

90'⁺⁴ Wenderson · Foul

Coaches

Paulo Autuori

Bruno Pivetti

Recent form

Fortaleza

DHAthletic Club2-2

WALondrina2-1

DHCeará1-1

WHAvaí1-0

WAGoiás1-0

Náutico

WHSport Recife3-1

LACuiabá0-3

DHOperário-PR3-3

LAAmérica Mineiro1-2

WHBotafogo-SP1-0

About this match

**Fortaleza rolls up as the form horse here** — three wins in their last five have them cruising, while Náutico's wildly inconsistent (two wins, two losses, a draw). Home advantage at Governador Plácido Castelo should tilt this one. 🏟️

Fortaleza's defensive shape has been solid, especially in their recent 1-1 with Ceará. Náutico just conceded three at Cuiabá and can't seem to find consistency on the road — that's the real worry here.

Key storylines:

- **Fortaleza's midfield machine**: Pierre, Rodriguinho, and L. Sasha dictate tempo better than Náutico's Reginaldo and Wenderson combination
- **Home fortress under pressure**: Can Fortaleza's back four (K. Henrique, L. Gazal, T. Cardona, Maílton) keep another clean sheet against K. Maranhão's attack?
- **Náutico's travel blues**: Two losses away this stretch; Todinho and J. Carlos need to make something stick in open play

Expected lineups:

- **Fortaleza**: J. Ricardo, K. Henrique, L. Gazal, T. Cardona, Maílton, Pierre, Rodriguinho, L. Sasha, P. Henrique, J. Miritello, Vitinho
- **Náutico**: Muriel, I. Fernandes, Betão, Wanderson, Reginaldo, Wenderson, L. Índio, B. Borasi, J. Carlos, Todinho, K. Maranhão

Prediction:

**Fortaleza 2–1 Náutico**. Home form + Náutico's shaky away record = lean Fortaleza. ⚪

Where to watch

BetanoCanal GoatDisney+ESPNRedeTV!

Match facts

Stadium

Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo

City

Fortaleza

Referee

Kleber Ariel Goncalves Silva

Kickoff

03 Oct, 00:35 UTC

Competition

Brasileirão Serie B

Highlights & clips

Fortaleza 4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1 Náutico

1 J. Ricardo 6.9 22 Maílton 7.6 3 L. Gazal 7.1 6 T. Cardona 7.0 12 K. Henrique 6.7 29 R. Santos 7.0 ↑ 71' 5 Pierre 6.9 77 P. Baya 6.4 ↑ 85' 31 Welliton 6.7 ↑ 76' 21 J. C. Cantillo 6.4 ↑ 71' 75 Rodriguinho 6.8 ↑ 46' 1 Muriel 6.1 93 Reginaldo 7.2 ↑ 71' 34 Wanderson 6.8 ↑ 85' 3 Betão 7.2 6 Ryan 6.1 8 Wenderson 7.3 24 B. Borasi 6.9 ↑ 58' 9 P. Sérgio 6.5 ↑ 85' 10 J. Carlos 6.4 7 Vinícius 8.4 27 L. Felipe 6.7 ↑ 58'

Substitutes

25GVinicius 13DM. Lima 4DLuan Freitas 23DNeris 88ML. Sasha↓ 71'7.0 16MP. Henrique↓ 46'5.5 38ML. Prior 8MRonald 10ML. Crispim 32FLuiz Fernando↓ 85'7.6 17FNathan Fogaça↓ 71'7.0 11FVitinho↓ 76'6.6

Coach: Paulo Autuori

Substitutes

55GG. Guruceaga 2DArnaldo↓ 71'6.8 60DL. Paulo 46DG. Henrique 15ML. Índio↓ 85'7.7 29MTodinho↓ 85'6.6 41MS. F. Rodrigues↓ 58'6.2 11MV. Andrade 5MAuremir 72FDerek↓ 58'6.7 19FK. Maranhão

Coach: Bruno Pivetti

Top stats

51%Possession49%

1.44Expected goals (xG)0.64

16Total shots12

4Shots on target3

4Big chances0

7Corners4

Shots

8Shots off target4

4Blocked shots5

8Shots inside box4

8Shots outside box8

2Hit woodwork0

4Big chances missed0

-0.06Goals prevented-0.51

Attack

25Touches in box9

66Final third entries43

1Offsides1

22Free kicks15

4Fouled in final third1

Passing

532Passes512

470Accurate passes440

27/43 (63%)Long balls31/63 (49%)

4/28 (14%)Crosses4/15 (27%)

14Throw-ins15

Duels

50Duels50

32/65 (49%)Ground duels33/65 (51%)

11/21 (52%)Aerial duels10/21 (48%)

5/11 (45%)Dribbles7/10 (70%)

5Dispossessed4

Defending

7Tackles11

57Tackles won36

5Interceptions14

12Clearances24

47Recoveries43

Discipline

15Fouls22

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0Big saves1

5Goal kicks13

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 21 bookmakers

Fortaleza 55%

26%

Náutico 19%

1X2Fortaleza to win 55% · 2.15 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 9.5 corners 55% · 1.60 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.30 @ 1xBet

Who winsFortaleza to win (DNB) 65% · 1.20 @ Betsson

BTTSBTTS: No 52% · 1.25 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 52% · 1.15 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 74% · 1.31 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 26% · 2.62 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 2.25 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 56% · 1.81 @ Pinnacle

1X2Náutico to win 19% · 5.00 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.65

Fortaleza

3.50

Draw

4.85

Náutico

Double Chanceconsensus

1.15

Fortaleza or Draw

1.25

Fortaleza or Náutico

2.08

Draw or Náutico

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.98

Yes

1.73

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.70

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

8.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

9.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.30

Over 1.50

3.30

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.98

Over 2.50

1.81

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.59

Over 3.50

1.29

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

7.22

Over 4.50

1.06

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.20

Fortaleza

4.12

Náutico

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.12

Over 7.50

4.46

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.30

Over 8.50

2.99

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.58

Over 9.50

2.25

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

1.96

Over 10.50

1.79

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.49

Over 11.50

1.48

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Fortaleza to win or draw

✓

81% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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