Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United — live & stats

Where the money is

1581513 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks, 3 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 845230 EUR · live

Away 1.03 · implied 97.1%

39.3%

-57.8 vs price

Home 200.0 · implied 0.5%

34.3%

+33.8 vs price

Draw 40.0 · implied 2.5%

26.4%

+23.9 vs price

Half time 4634 EUR · live

Draw 1.63 · implied 61.3%

71.2%

+9.8 vs price

Home 5.4 · implied 18.5%

14.9%

-3.6 vs price

Away 5.0 · implied 20.0%

13.9%

-6.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 111047 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

79.8%

-19.2 vs price

Over 120.0 · implied 0.8%

20.2%

+19.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 5468 EUR · live

Under 1.02 · implied 98.0%

91.0%

-7.0 vs price

Over 70.0 · implied 1.4%

9.0%

+7.6 vs price

19 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

18' O. Aina · Foul

32' D. Calvert-Lewin · Foul

Half-time · 0–0

52' Jair · Foul

62' 🔁 C. Wood ◂ D. Ndoye

66' 🔁 N. Okafor ◂ H. Wilson

74' 🔁 X. Schlager ◂ J. McAtee

74' 🔁 L. Netz ◂ O. Aina

82' 🔁 S. Longstaff ◂ B. Aaronson

88' ⚽ A. Stach0–1

Full-time · 0–1

90'⁺³ 🔁 A. Kalimuendo ◂ Murillo

Coaches

Oliver Glasner

Daniel Farke

Recent form

Nottingham Forest

WHStade Brestois2-0

WHBayer 04 Leverkusen2-1

LAFC Barcelona0-1

LAUdinese0-1

LASporting CP1-4

Leeds United

WHFC Augsburg4-0

DAManchester United1-1

WHRB Leipzig2-0

WALiverpool FC4-2

WHSunderland1-0

Where to watch

Canal+ Live 3

Match facts

Stadium

City Ground

City

Nottingham

Referee

Robert Jones

4.10 yellows/match · 30 matches

Kickoff

22 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Competition

Premier League

Highlights & clips

Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1 Leeds United

26 M. Sels 6.5 23 Jair 6.5 31 N. Milenković 6.4 15 A. Kalimuendo ↑ 90' 25 L. Netz 6.2 ↑ 74' 21 X. Schlager 6.4 ↑ 74' 6 I. Sangaré 6.8 3 N. Williams 6.7 9 C. Wood 6.5 ↑ 62' 10 M. Gibbs-White 6.8 11 I. Jesus 6.9 1 J. Trafford 7.3 6 J. Rodon 7.1 15 J. Bijol 7.3 5 T. Muharemović 6.8 2 J. Bogle 6.6 18 A. Stach 8.1 4 E. Ampadu 7.1 24 J. Justin 7.3 19 N. Okafor 6.6 ↑ 66' 8 S. Longstaff 6.6 ↑ 82' 9 D. Calvert-Lewin 6.1

Substitutes

12GJ. Victor 5DMurillo↓ 90'7.1 34DO. Aina↓ 74'6.8 2DO. Diomande 44DZ. Abbott 24MJ. McAtee↓ 74'7.3 14MD. Ndoye↓ 62'6.5 8MN. Domínguez 7MC. Hudson Odoi

Coach: Oliver Glasner

Substitutes

23GL. Perri 65DJ. Lienou 30DN. Elvedi 10MH. Wilson↓ 66'6.8 50MA. Cresswell 22MA. Tanaka 7MD. James 11FB. Aaronson↓ 82'6.8 14FL. Nmecha

Coach: Daniel Farke

Top stats

56%Possession44%

0.66Expected goals (xG)0.47

12Total shots11

2Shots on target3

3Corners2

Shots

8Shots off target2

2Blocked shots6

6Shots inside box6

6Shots outside box5

2Hit woodwork0

-0.47Goals prevented0.33

Attack

22Touches in box15

60Final third entries63

3Offsides3

14Free kicks15

4Fouled in final third3

Passing

411Passes326

321Accurate passes232

28/71 (39%)Long balls24/58 (41%)

4/19 (21%)Crosses3/8 (38%)

25Throw-ins12

Duels

48Duels52

31/72 (43%)Ground duels41/72 (57%)

30/55 (55%)Aerial duels25/55 (45%)

10/20 (50%)Dribbles7/12 (58%)

9Dispossessed3

Defending

8Tackles19

63Tackles won63

2Interceptions15

32Clearances31

47Recoveries43

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow cards1

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

1Big saves1

6Goal kicks10

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 78 bookmakers

Forest 36%

26%

Leeds 38%

CornersOver 9.5 corners 53% · 1.87 @ Unibet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 65% · 1.53 @ Unibet

1X2Leeds to win 38% · 3.45 @ Interwetten

BTTSBoth teams to score 55% · 3.30 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 52% · 5.00 @ 888Sport

1X2Draw 26% · 2.60 @ betcity

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 76% · 2.20 @ 888Sport

Who winsForest to win (DNB) 58% · 1.67 @ forbet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 70% · 1.37 @ Betway

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 58% · 1.61 @ Pinnacle

1X2Forest to win 36% · 2.66 @ efbet.net

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.30

Nottingham Forest ▼

3.36

Draw ▲

3.09

Leeds United ▲

Double Chanceconsensus

1.36

Nottingham Forest or Draw ▲

1.32

Nottingham Forest or Leeds United ▲

1.60

Draw or Leeds United ▼

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.70

Yes ▲

2.06

No ▼

Home Clean Sheetconsensus

3.00

YES

1.33

NO

Away Clean Sheetconsensus

3.70

YES

1.22

NO

Home Win to Nilconsensus

4.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

5.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

9.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.28

Over 1.50 ▲

3.50

Under 1.50 ▼

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.91

Over 2.50 ▲

1.86

Under 2.50 ▼

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.22

Over 3.50 ▲

1.32

Under 3.50 ▼

Total Goals 4.50consensus

6.78

Over 4.50

1.08

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.62

Nottingham Forest

2.21

Leeds United

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.22

Over 7.50

3.17

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.44

Over 8.50

2.54

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.80

Over 9.50

1.96

Under 9.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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